Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I was noticing that too. And the longer she hangs out down there, the more things can change as far as direction/intensity, the whole nine yards.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
At 21Z:
At 00Z:
At 03Z:
Current at 06Z:
That ridge appears quite strong Grothar.
See the 2011AHS site.
I'm still trying to figure out why the Euro/HWRF/GFDL threesome continue to call for a Category 4 brushing the Outer Banks and Category 2 at landfall in the NE. Even when you look at the upper air charts they don't paint a picture of perfect conditions. And there will almost certainly be moderate SW-erly shear imparted on Irene by the approaching shortwaves.
has there been a non scary model run in the past 24 hours?
SUN 12Z 28-AUG 22.1 17.0 973 92 97 1.67 555 578
Bold is MSLP and 3 hour QPF
now I think this is sign that is going to move north
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php ?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=
the ridge out to the SE
is shifting to the west to pick up Irene
Yes, indeed. Not the right placing for a trof if you want to turn it out to sea. I am surprised to see that it flattened that TX ridge as much as it did. I wonder if the NHC is perhaps re-evaluating their track for the 5am package?!?
Is that a new avatar?
This isn't much of a big deal, the original longwave was always going to flatten out and lift out while the subtropical ridge builds W-ward slightly. Its the series of shortwave impulses moving along the mean trough that will turn Irene N-ward. There is literally a 5% chance of Irene going any further W than 77.5W.
Appears that not only has the weakness closed some, but shifted further west as the ridge builds in from the Atlantic some.
The ridge will steer Irene right into the Eastern Seaboard with the Atlantic ridge building so quickly and the Texas ridge moving west. Only a trough can pick up a system, not steer it like a ridge can. If the trough is strong enough it will push the atlantic ridge back and pull Irene with it, but if Irene moves to slowly, gets too big, or the trough doesn't come deep enough or strong enough to pick it up, then we're going to have a whole different scenario developing over the next 48 hours.
I would think so. Alot has changed the last 6 hours
With the strength of the ridge , as well as the
Strength of Irene
There was an analysis of a severe hurricane that hit Massachusetts in 1635. They investigated accounts, and dug up layers of plant material and sand and dated them and figured out that a 938 mb hurricane hitting near the RI/MA border and exiting just south of Plymouth was the best fit for the hurricane. Whatever it was it was fearsomely strong, with higher tides in the area than where the 1938 and 1815 hurricanes hit. Could have had a 925 pressure there off the mid-Atlantic.
It is indeed lol I was getting tired of looking at a blank grey portrait next to my handle :p
LOL
They do seem a bit overdone. However, the global models all have consistently deepened the cyclone right through its pass through or close to the outer banks. It could be that in the lack of a strong longwave moving in from the west, that the benign weakness west of the storm allows for more phasing, and thus perhaps an influx of baroclinic energy that helps instead of hinders the storm. We'll see, but I still expect weakening before it passes the outer banks.
Good to hear
LOL...Good to finally see what you look like dude!!
Dude give it up, it's NOT coming to S FL. Nothing is changing at the 5am package. If anything it will shift to the east.
High end CAT 2
Agreed. Atmos - You look really good. lol
Just making observations... sheesh ;-)
Where did you get that?
I Didn't Say that!!
I mean, if Irene really were to blow up further in size (possible if the upper level high tracks along on top of it the next couple of days as forecast) then your theory could come into play. It does happen on occasion. But I would say that's more likely with a storm that approaches with a 945-955 mb pressure, not with a pressure already below 935 mb. I don't remember the last hurricane ever to be that intense that close to the Outer Banks. Even the 1938 LIE only bottomed out at 938 mb, and that was well before it reached the area.
There are several sites to get these, but I'll tell you what I use.
Link
Yeah. It doesn't seem to be a significant influence on Irene for the moment, but is serving as more of an indicator of where the western periphery of the ridge north of Irene is.
But there was no account for the cut off low south of the Carolinas. Which is the wild card right now. It's not only enhancing the breakdown of the cutoff ride, it is currently blocking the Carolina escape route and could invoke something further west. It does not match the model scheme in any fashion right now, but it may shear out with the next trough (unlikely though based on current structure and movement)/ Otherwise, the picture changes, even if it only means it swerves over FL and imparts a NNW motion to Irene into the Carolinas later on. Mean time, with this ULL to the north, it will slide south of it if it does not do either of these. Right now, the pattern has become more concerning further south...despite the models.
Link didnt work.
I will say one thing about this weak ULL...it gives a pretty good idea of the furthest west Irene can make it before its turn to the north. That is exactly where the weakness in between the two ridges is.
Hahaha well thanks! Can't hide myself forever now can I? Lol.
Sleep well Levi thanks for the good work again.
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