Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.
Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.
Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.
A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).
Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.
This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.
Angela
Reader Comments
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At least you know it's coming to you... LOL.
I assume you have everything in place?
At its current path, would we say hurricane force winds from Irene?
the individual images stopped loading on Allan's site..here is the link so far of the run
Link
Wow just got power back what a storm. still raining here stuck in the tail end and watching an impressive lightning show the nws says by the end we will exceed 20+ inches of rain! calling it the 50 year rain event
Charley was also moving VERY quickly up the state. Exiting near Daytona Beach as a Cat1. It was moving about 25 mph. It would not have remained a hurricane if it was going slower. Again, because it was a very tightly wound system.
ya got yer ear's on CRS?..
Come back
Reed, the hurricane hunters found 969 mb.
just in case you missed it at the turn of the page lol
I've been lurking for the last day or so, and have a few newbie questions...
1.) With regards to the anatomy of the hurricane, what is the "ridge" and how does it impact the hurricane's motion?
2.) What is a TROF?
3.) I'm seeing references to something called the "Bermuda High." What is that?
If you read these, thanks. It's been a treat watching y'all banter over the last day or two. :)
Yeah, I figured you guys were getting some terrible rain. She really hasn't left you alone in 3 days.
That's a big hole.
+10000000
PR really took a whack with Irene. Hope brighter days are ahead for you.
The wind speed always lags behind the pressure fall.
Another 3 to 6 hours from now you will see what I mean
Indeed.
Wind will jump. We are going to 110 tonight.
lookin' into that right now
NHC track says no, as it is 100 miles east of Wilmington. Hurricane force winds wouldn't extend that far to the west. Again though, the track isn't set in stone.
http://www.library.beau.org/~oem/hurr.html
That on this very date, 138 years ago, the first ever type of hurricane warning was issued?
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I really feel for those in path of Irene, plz be prepared!!
Hey CAT5,
Do you think we are going to get Tropical Storm Winds down in SFL?
Thanks,
You know, it isn't really nice to tell people to shut the hell up. See, you made me say it! You are a bad influence!
LOL!
Baha - Where exactly are you in the Bahamas?
sigh...ya just HAD to throw J'ville into the mix, eh? I'd be happy with just some good rain.
AL092011 - Hurricane IRENE
Good thing it is there otherwise Florida would be in a panic
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