Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Not a major role in her track. She could weaken this evening and tomorrow morning before strengthening later tomorrow, if the EWRC lasts as long as they normally do, but it is nearly impossible to predict how long it will take it to complete. Once it does, Irene could emerge even stronger than before.
The bigger issue is that EWRCs almost always cause the hurricane's wind field to expand. Interestingly enough, the HWRF and GFDL have both been forecasting an enlargement of Irene's eye and wind field.
If anyone has any doubt about the size and strength of Irene they need only look at the obs in the Caymans. Right now we have WNW to NW winds and a pressure of 1006.4 and still falling. This from a hurricane several hundred miles away. Pretty impressive.
If FEMA were run right then Presslord wouldn't have to do so much work thru PORTLIGHT
Believe it or not, things like forecasts do change. Are you going to be able to cope?
Looks like the inner eye rotation in already occurring on the RSO Loop
+100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
pretty good
Better news for the central islands...awful news for the NW-ern islands as this cycle will be done once she reaches that area :/
That's why a lot of the grid in FL is now made up of cement poles. They won't go to hurricane in FL 'cause there is little work usually afterward.
No worries on the safety issue - they're very good, very safe linemen. Been working the tornadoes up here in the Midwest this summer, and my husband was at Ike, too, so they're pretty well-versed in the biz & will be careful.
Much better work than the winter-stuff here, that's for sure! And the OT (and NY payscale) isn't bad, either. :) Other than the meteorologists and media, linemen are probably the only people who get a little excited when they see the hurricanes coming across the ocean, but they pray for the only damage to happen to power-lines & not people, you know?
Until this thig actually makes its turn and the models update for that motion, I would temper the enthusiasm. I'm right here in Jacksonville watching this thing like a hawk because the slightest influence right now can be BAD for SE NC.
1980 doesn't surpass this summer. Houston has had the hottest August EVER! So far we are averaging 101.7F for the month, which blows away 1980. We just broke are string of > 100F days from 1980.
Best word in the ENGLISH language eh Taz... ignore people like him...we all know what you said
Would an EWRC generally drive her more west? or just depends?
I think the scariest thing about this EWRC occurring now is that once its done, like you sai could emerge stronger, and given that that would be at a later time period most likely, then irene could be stronger going towards New england/NE. Just a thought.
Hi kman. Wow. She's a monster. What's your wind speed there?
Have you seen any sort of a surge or SLOSH.model out yet? I was looking at 38 and the Great Atlantic Hurricane In the historical simulations, and this thing looks like it could produce the same effect - surging an enormous wall of water up Naragansett Bay (which narrows) in particular. But I've got a Mac , so I can't run the SLOSH model myself.
i re move the commet
I couldn't make that LOL any bigger.
Just got out of work here in Miami Fl and felt it was windier. Not sure is related to the storm as she is far from us...
Thanks
From early afternoon it looked as if an EWRC was underway. If so the Northern Bahamas might be facing an intensifying hurricane on the way to CAT 4 as the new eye clears out. That is also where the greater part of the population lives as well as most of the development.
Not a good scenario
surely you don't think that's coincidental
Haha, you keep saying the same thing over and over. What do you need to convey or hear? The storm will miss you completely. Well, I certainly hope so and I hope UT stays plenty far from shore so we can get a nice swell for surfing. Sorry to tell you this, but your dune will be where you house was if a cat 4 hits you. Fircasting Ralieghs rain and wind field at this time is tantamount to mere conjecture.
Hey. If you can put up some cheap fiber board, do so.
Worse comes to worse, your neighbors get to make fun of you for a week till someone else does something unexpected. And you will have fiber board to use around the house, then lend to the neighbors when they need some. ;)
Edit* oops. I thought that would quote who you quoted! Where IsTheStorm! d'oh.
DallasGumby your dad's stories are nice stories that is, but when it comes to statistics, empirical data, facts and science your memory is a pretty weak indicator. Anyway we facing now a potential record shattering (impact wise) hurricane approaching the US coast. Good luck to you guys in Dallas and the rest of Texas with your drought, you need it!
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