Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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DallasGumby your dad's stories are nice stories that is, but when it comes to statistics, empirical data, facts and science your memory is a pretty weak indicator. Anyway we facing now a potential record shattering (impact wise) hurricane approaching the US coast. Good luck to you guys in Dallas and the rest of Texas with your drought, you need it!
Hopefully not the beginning of a trend westward...
I agree. Living right on the water like that with a potential Cat 4 heading your way, no thanks.
That 18Z GFS is almost identical to the current NHC track.
1 Bird Bent.... 2 on task
Taz has been on this blog for years and those of us that have been here with him understand him. If you do not know anything about someone you should be slow to criticize. It is both unkind and unnecessarily hurtful.
+1
In the post you quoted I opened by saying it was not a major influence on her track. Inner core dynamics do play a role in short-term wobbles, but those are not terribly important except for when the eye is close to land masses. It may be important for Nassau in case Irene takes a short wobble closer to the island due to the inner core changes.
Tax Dollars hard at work list of words:
RESPECT
COMMON DECENTCY
EMPATHY
HUMANISTIC
TOLERABLE
and last but not least....trying not to be a JACKASS!!!
The European model certainly showed a shift. However, most of that shift occurs after NC. It is a little closer to the NC coast though.
I would like to point out, once again, that only those who DON'T understand climatology attempt to pin any one meteorological event on climate change.
A record drought is meteorological. An active hurricane season is meteorological. Abnormal cold and snow in the winter is meteorological. It's only when those conditions continue for years, decades, or longer that climatology becomes relevant.
So when you here people screaming on TV or the internet that X event proves that the global warming is real/not real, ignore them. They don't know what they're talking about.
i happen to be glad that they have been wrong.i dont want it hitting here in SC nor do i want to see it destroy other peoples lives as well.
start friday...biggest saturday, esp during high tide... upwards of 7 ft or higher
Seems to be regular scheduling - so yes, would appear to be coincidental.
Should be Fri afternoon, and in to Saturday we see the water come close to the road at Washout. I would try and time it with a incoming/high tide during that time range.
Uhh, err...What tigger said ;)
Very well put.
Portlight past missions of relief:
Hurricane Ike
TS Fay
Haiti Earthquake
S. Carolina Fires
Yazoo City Tornado
Joplin Tornado
Help up Help others as Irene poses a threat to millions downstream this week.
We had a conference call last night and with a preliminary plan in place we expect to be involved in immediate relief efforts as they are identifeied and relayed to us post Storm.
www.portlight.org
+1
Sorry, I guess that's what I was trying to point out - the difference between the resilience of the Joplin people vs. the DC people. I could also compare the Joplin people to the N. Mpls people who, DURING the tornado in April, didn't wait for it to leave the ground before they started LOOTING and then were P.O.'d when FEMA refused them individual help for the damage the tornado did to a couple of blocks of the community. These same people harassed the linemen restoring power - cursed them for not getting there sooner and called them very derogatory names (the guys working said it was the worst place they'd ever worked and many had worked lots of storms all over the country including Katrina, Ike, Rita, etc.). Lots of people in the US could learn from the good folks in Joplin about self-reliance & helping one's neighbor.
You beat me to it
Taz has been on this blog for years and those of us that have been here with him understand him. If you do not know anything about someone you should be slow to criticize. It is both unkind and unnecessarily hurtful.
+100
Yeah, these were 100 foot concrete poles, but like I was saying that was a cat5 and those kind of poles and lines are replaced and worked on by helicopter. I don't think high transmission lines will be that damaged from Irene.
Last time Irene was here (1999) I watched a one-man crew drive up a flooded street with water up to the bottom of trucks cab while arcing live power lines whipped through the water. That guy climbed out the truck window and got that power turned off in under 10 minutes. Lineman are some of the bravest people out there. Best wishes to your family.
actually PIECE is a part of something, PEACE is what brings comfort...guess the commish's tax dollars were wasted as well
Taz just needs a simple disclaimer - "My English ain't perfect...deal with it"
I really do appreciate what he posts, and regret sort of making a joke about one of his quickie-posts earlier. :(
thanks =)
ouch! lol.....
My point exactly. Thanks.
Looks like EWRC to me, but I could be wrong.
+1
sure models
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