Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I was in RI ( that's Rhode Island, not rapid intensification ) a month ago and went down to Newport after visiting Providence. Put a real hurt on a few 3lb. Maine Lobsters. Just got my cholestrol levels back to normal yesterday.
You have that backwards.
Kman, That's my favorite watch
Aren't there better examples? Irene is much farther south and more intense...
Aahhhh, my hometown!!! Miss it greatly, love to go for a visit and eat my weight in seafood!!
It's going to be a day for the ducks tomorrow.....
Thank the FSM we don't have "The Earthquake Channel" ;P
I was up in Massachusetts working wind/tornado/hail claims, in fact i still am (writing w/ 27.3 for my bro in law). its a nice place really....strange because all the states are so very small, but cool nonetheless.
I know you guys are used to this but be safe. Irene means business.
We did yesterday. A couple of them.
Just ignore him and move on. Don't quote him, it just shows him to every one who has ignored him and defeats the purpose, lol. Stick to the weather!
Was in Tuscaloosa then Joplin for several weeks and I've pretty much seen all the devastation I want to for the rest of my life....hoping Irene is kinder to our E Coast friends.
2011 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Aug 24, 2011 18:59
BASIN CURRENT YTD
Northern Hemisphere
221.0620
Western Pacific
133.752
North Atlantic
23.715
Eastern Pacific
62.4925
North Indian
1.1025
Southern Hemisphere
140.398
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
1981-2010 Climatology
Calendar Year / Year To Date
BASIN NORMAL YEARLY ACE** NORMAL YEAR TO DATE
Northern Hemisphere 556 214
Western North Pacific 304 116
North Atlantic 104 22
Eastern Pacific 131 68
North Indian 18 7
Southern Hemisphere 209 --
-----------------------------------------------
We just went ahead of climatology...Irene will most likely put us well above climatology before she's done.
Of course, you're right but there are way too many children on here who can't understand that kind of reasoning.
(The song just doesn't suit to this situation, though...)
Wonder why.
If so, wow!
I love you!
That's nothing compared to what we will have by tomorrow afternoon...Just wait.
Yes. It's what you do before you pump the ridge.
Did I say that out loud?
The number one thing I miss about home already is the seafood! I could die for a Maine Lobster right now.
I got to admit I wish i was home for Irene too. Bob hit when i was only 1, and i've never witnessed a storm like this before. I don't wish harm on anyone, but if it's going to happen I want to witness it.
18z:
12z:
For starters, the text of the clip you posted does not support the scary headline. And, the text shows what I and others have been saying (wow, there's even a comment about the La Nina event causing this summer's drought):
"In a video presentation, Texas A&M University soil scientist Travis Miller, a member of Gov. Rick Perry’s (R-TX) Drought Preparedness Council, explained that the strong La Niña during the fall and winter is tied to drought in the southern U.S., and rejected a role for climate change, despite the record-shattering heat: 'There’s a lot of speculation why we’re having this weather pattern we’re having. Some people attribute it to climate change. But in essence, if you go back and study weather records, We have 116 years of weather records in Texas. It’s been this variable all the way back to 1895 when we first started records. What we’re experiencing is climate variability instead of climate change.'"
That's moved west slightly too.
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