Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Even people further south and along the coast are not concerned... some are but not everyone. Not just water but also strong damaging winds.
I don't know about a Cat 4 at North Carolina, but farther up the coast this will certainly be stronger than normal for a system taking this path.
our local met said today that if irene followed the center line she would be about 175 miles off the coast of Charleston on Saturday...if she is already 0ver 200 miles out from center...well...that means we get some wind...not the strongest Thank God...but a wobble either way can make a difference...so yes i am watching
Some of us are watching the Little League World Series on ESPN. These kids play some great baseball. No popcorn, just some nice fresh pineapple from publix.
Outer eyewall seems to be wrapping around the inner core of Irene now. Later tonight she will clear out her new eye and take aim at Category 4 strength.
Wow, how was that? Weren't the winds 155 mph at that point?
Bravo!
Most of the strong wind is on the north/east side.
Just because you can doesn't mean you should
stop it
dont get mad on people in here we bloggers and have the right to say the true ,THE MODELS went wrong every single day from day one and counting!!
IP addresses can be spoofed.
Users can use different computers and in different locations.
Most routers, today, allow you to spoof your MAC address, so even that can be a cat and mouse game.
You would have to block the IP addresses of their Internet provider. That blocks everyone else using those IP ranges.
Thats real low...don't post someones private data without their consent.
Holy Sheeeeee it.
If I read that correct that is forecasting a 926mb low just south and a tad west of NYC. [head smack]
Thank goddess its from the GFDL, and not the Euro.
hey...he goes to YOUR church lol... :P
The models called the lack of weakening over PR/Hispaniola too. This could be real bad.
That's the strongest wind right? Like the west side could still see strong TS to low end cat 1 winds right? Because the wind field is soo large from the center.
you are basing this on what?
The models have been pretty good with this, they changed when they needed to
Yeah, my mother lives in NE NJ and they had some extreme flooding back in 99' with Floyd. Never really seen flooding like that until Katrina.
If this really looks like it may do some damage up there, I'll probably help prepare with the local EMS and whatnot.
Heck, I might even livestream for a while.
moveing on two are storm
what? post the link
Heck. That has been the norm for the past month on our daily rainstorms... Just another day in paradise.
Woohoooo !!!!!
taz. they just clicked on your name and you have sonora as your local weather
It's making me want to do that, and I'm all the way up in Jax Beach. Like I heard someone say today...it's a good day to live in Northeast Florida. :)
I was in Raleigh for Hugo. The forecasts were calling for a direct hit. Woke up the next morning, and everything was fine. There, anyway...
Georgetown, Exuma, Bahamas, The
(MYEG) 23-28-30N 075-46-00W 3M
Conditions at
2011.08.24 2359 UTC
Wind from the NNW (340 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 KT) gusting to 60 MPH (52 KT)
Yep. Just depends on how far you are away from the center of the storm.
It WAS pretty intuitive of me wasn't it?? I was actually admiring all of the pictures of traffic lights he took. And the snow.
But back to Irene
What does that mean?
moveing on tooo are storm
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