Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I am not sure if this is an ULL forming or if it just an illusion of the atmosphere. Can anyone explain? Could it have any effect?



Here is the link to the WV loop of the GOM:

Link

Quoting dan77539:


...and I believe the storm surge is strongly correlated not to the current strength (which would be weaker by the time it reaches NYC area), but by the historical strength it had a few days before...

IMO storm surge would NOT be the issue in Manhattan however. It's anything but flat. I would "assume" (a dangerous word of couse, ASS-U-ME!)most buildings would handle that if up to codes.

Quoting twincomanche:
We must be sensitive here right Groth?

Not at all, i like a feisty debate as much as the next one, but really? wishing harm on people because they are rich? Or because you don't like the city? that's childish.

Been doing work all day. Can someone comment on whether the models have shifted the projected path to the west of where the projected path was yesterday?

sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this hurricane will hit florida first then skim the cost and into south carolina.

Quoting lowerbamagirl:


I am by no means an expert, but have watched you try to make a decision for several days now. If I recall, you have family inland. I live in lower Alabama and leave early and often. Go visit your family and call it good. Many people are not lucky enough to have a place to go! I have five kids and there are not many friends that can take them all (not many hotels like it either)! Anyway, for what it is worth quit second guessing and take a little respite!

This is excellent advice. I left early for Gustav and was very glad I did. The models are just that--models--and not reality. A storm can always make an unexpected jog your way. If you have the liberty to follow the [land-version of the] Mariner's 1-2-3 rule and get well out of the way of a storm, do so.

Grothar, I have lived in Miami for 32 years and let me tell ya it is the freakiest thing I've ever experienced in weather down here to be watching a northwest-bound Cat 3 that close to Miami, with NO watches or warnings posted for the city. Absolutely mind blowing. I realize some folks might not be able to appreciate it, but those of us who have been through hurricanes in Miami will know exactly what I mean. It is like having a chained charging Grizzly heading toward you. You KNOW the chain will stop 'em before he gets you, but there is something very primal about that kind of fear that defies logic.

As Irene is forecast to come barreling up the coast, I thought I'd share this link to the other natural disaster that is dominating the headlines.

Quoting aprinz1979:


At least Norcross said "It looks like it's going to hit Florida, but WE ARE CONFIDENT IT'S GONNA TURN NORTH." I thought I heard those same exact words come out of some meteorologist's mouth!!!! WE ARE CONFIDENT IT'S GONNA GO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. GULP

Interesting point

954mb not at center yet:

012730 2334N 07521W 6967 02747 9540 +142 +139 317033 036 042 006 00

this is from Wikipedia from Hurricane Irene



i post some info and am sadey to report there have been some deaths report





Hispaniola

Skirting barely north past Hispaniola, the large storm produced gales and prolonged precipitation in the Dominican Republic, displacing over 31,900 people and leaving at least 85 communities isolated in its wake.[50] Accompanying storm surge affected roughly 200 homes and prompted evacuations along the northern coastlines.[51] The strongest winds also occurred in northern Cibao, where they felled multiple trees and toppled utility poles. Swollen rivers, creeks, and streams caused widespread residential flooding and damage to roads; saturated soil in the region triggered mudslides, causing additional disruptions.[52] Despite its distance, Irene produced extreme rainfall in southern parts of the country that led to many secondary effects. Resultant floods combined with two overflown rivers swept through much of San Cristóbal, causing one bridge to collapse under the rushing waters.[53] The flooding produced at least two drown victims in that area, both later confirmed dead. Elsewhere, another fatality occurred in Cambita Garabitos, and six others were listed as missing.[54] Heavy rainfall also occurred across La Altagracia Province, where one person in Higüey went missing and hundreds were evacuated. Most of the damage in the region occurred due to flooded rivers, with some agricultural losses reported.[55] In all, Irene affected at least 2,292 households according to preliminary reports, with 16 houses rendered beyond repair.[50]






Bahamas

Some islands of the Bahamas experienced extensive damage. On island of Acklins, some homes were destroyed. In addition, winds tore off the roof of a high school on Crooked Island.

Do you think that 90L could affect the Caribbean?

Quoting BDAwx:


I see why you're saying that, but I feel you lost the point of my post behind my comment about new york. Let me highlight some key notes and qualifiers.

""Hurricane Irene is a serious threat to US security on a level never seen this far in advance from a hurricane. Therefore to be absolutely sure the hurricane will be a category 3 making landfall just to the west of Manhattan with a >15 foot storm surge (or whatever doom is being forecast today), the NHC is letting loose everything it can afford, and hopefully no huge threats come behind Irene for budget and financial reasons.

If after all possible data is collected and the models continue to spit out doomsday scenarios, then emergency personnel can no longer play games with the storm. and God forbid, if New York City needed to be evacuated, they would need as much lead time as possible.

And that goes for any coastal city along the US east coast, not just New York. The NHC knows that this is a real threat and so do the people in charge of emergency operations. All they need is to be as sure as possible so they can make the right calls.""

The New York scenario stemmed from what I was seeing from model tracks taking a storm with sub-940mb pressures into New Jersey. My post was in response to someone noting the reconnaissance observations up the entire east coast. I was basically saying that they were doing that, despite the coasts, because of the nature of the threat being depicted by model runs. So they want to weed out the bad runs by getting more and better data.

Lets break it down more like this and keep it simple and short, if models verify and this comes in at cat2 or the least a cat 1 in the NE....this will be....THE WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

And I'm not playing around or Bull$hiting

Right. I'm out for now. Will check in around 11 p.m. for the NHC discussion, and post an update on my blog at that time. Have fun and be good, kiddos...

Quoting twincomanche:
I must be dense, I thought it was a slam on democrats. LOL.

LOL

Quoting Grothar:


Of course I was being sarcastic. I live on the 2nd island on the Intracoastal in Fort Lauderdale 1/2 from the ocean. I have been concerned since it was a wave. I guess some of the new ones don't me well. LOL

Don't worry Gro... I got it too... good for a chuckle.

Still is alarming when you look at those wide SAT loops and look at how tiny we look here in S. FL. (Boca)

I just keep forecast points checked in the box on the loops and hope it just makes one after another for our sake... and misses them east for everybody else.

Quoting RedrumATL:


IMO storm surge would NOT be the issue in Manhattan however. It's anything but flat. I would "assume" (a dangerous word of couse, ASS-U-ME!)most buildings would handle that if up to codes.

Ok. Manhattan is kind of tucked away anyway--I'd worry about Long Island, Rhode Island, and Connecticut with the current project path.

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this hurricane will hit florida first then skim the cost and into south carolina.

Based on the ant piles, right? Proof please :)

Quoting lottotexas:
The heat island inside beltway 8 keeps all WEAK stuff away. Always circles around us.

Looks that way again. I got nothing out of this but a light show thru the blinds.

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this hurricane will hit florida first then skim the cost and into south carolina.

OK lol. Give us a full report when it happens ok.

Current winds on the Boca Raton Beach.

Wind Speed (gust) 27.3 mph
Wind Speed (avg) 23.5 mph
Wind Bearing 278° W
Beaufort F5 Fresh breeze

1461. Patrap 1:07 AM GMT on August 25, 2011 0 Hide this comment.

Quoting mojofearless:


Thanks for the links, Pat.
BTW -My 16-year old decided to leave the NYC area early - picked up a week early and just drove out of there today. He said he tried to tell everyone around him how to prepare and they all just laughed him off, so F*** it. He feels bad, but if they won't listen to someone from Nola, there's nothing he can do but avoid the misery by leaving.



He's a learned man fo sho then.

Best to not be where a Major is headed,, Misery loves company as we know.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 96666

Bad omen for the blog

Quoting southfla:
Grothar, I have lived in Miami for 32+ years and let me tell ya it is the freakiest thing I've ever experienced in weather down here to be watching at northwes-bound Cat 3 that close to Miami, with NO watches or warnings posted for the city. Absolutely mind blowing. I realize some folks might not be able to appreciate it, but those of us who have been through hurricanes in Miami will know exactly what I mean. It is like having a chained charging Grizzly heading toward you. You KNOW the chain will stop 'em before he gets you, but there is something very primal about that kind of fear that defies logic.

Exactly what I've been thinking

Quoting FLweather:
I am not sure if this is an ULL forming or if it just an illusion of the atmosphere. Can anyone explain? Could it have any effect?



Here is the link to the WV loop of the GOM:

Link

I've been watching this too, since earlier this afternoon. I'm wondering what if's, but I have no idea "what if's" to consider exactly.

Still droppin'...

012730 2334N 07521W 6967 02747 9540 +142 +139 317033 036 042 006 00

Quoting RedrumATL:


IMO storm surge would NOT be the issue in Manhattan however. It's anything but flat. I would "assume" (a dangerous word of couse, ASS-U-ME!)most buildings would handle that if up to codes.

You don't really think the majority of the buildings in Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens are up to code, do you?

Over the past 100 years, only six TC's have passed within 100 nautical miles of New York City at hurricane strength. From left to right at NYC's latitude:

--Gloria (1985)
--Belle (1976)
--Long Island Storm (1938)
--Carol (1954)
--Donna (1960)
--Unnamed (1944)

(Green = TS; yellow = Cat 1; orange = Cat 2)

Click for larger image:



This will be historic...

Having gone through Andrew in Broward in '92 and now seeing this monster "seemingly" heading (disregarding for a moment the models) our way and so close - it is astounding just how unconcerned most of us south Floridians are.  It is truly frightening to look at that bad girl in its proximity to our coast.

By the way, I tried to post an image by clicking on image and then putting in the address but it did not take.  Any suggestions on how to do this properly?  Thanks. 

Quoting Torgen:


Grothar still hasn't figured out how to use "smiley faces" when he's joking. We're all hoping that they will cover these new-fangled internet message boards on the Golden Girls one day so he will pick it up. ;)

Gee,Torgen. I figured most people knew me by now. You're right, I should throw up a sarcasm flag. I have to throw out a little sarcasm in response to some of the remarks I saw. Got into it last night when I mentioned how dangerous of a situation it could be for the East Coast and New England. Since I was born on Long Island and lived on and off there. It is a great concern for me. I still have many relatives there. What might be coming is not a pretty picture.

What is up with Gonzo's dash? Are they looking into the TROF and trying to get a hold on the steering?

Did Norcross just say the turn is uncertain or am I hearing things?

Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why people in Florida were even concerned with Irene.

It's called TRUST in experts like the NHC. WOW - that's like walking down the shoulder of the road and trusting people don't "swerve" and hit me! Of course, I believe in the NHC a WHOLE LOT MORE! LOL

Quoting Fotograffa:


A little while ago he said he was in Providence, RI...not that far from MA. Wonder why he changed positions?

He's versatile. Watch, next he'll be in NYC.

Get your storm flags ready Snooki!
Hurricane flags blowing during Wilma

Irene bent my fence. I need a stronger one. lol

A hit near NYC would flood the subways like crazy. There is a lot of activity below ground, stores, restaurants, pedestrian tunnels, power lines, etc..

Quoting zoomiami:


Interesting point

Norcross just said - not kidding - his words...

"the odds favor Irene turning north"

Quoting Patrap:
Folks need to realize the Storm is not single point as the center is tracked.

This is a LARGE Hurricane and they dont relate the SSS very well as we have seen in recent years.

Impacts count,,and if Irene follows the Intensity Guidance and Track.,,well were going to see a Large Scale MCI possibly.

..and I aint talking about the phone folks either.

Have a plan, have a safe place to go inland away from surge potential .

The decisions one makes the next 48 hrs,,will affect you and your's forever.

Think about it.

Bump

24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic

Quoting wolftribe2009:
FACT: As reported by the Weather Channel

The Great Atlantic Hurricane


The storm did not make landfall in NYC as it made landfall in Eastern Long Island but the WORST damage hit New Jersey

The hurricane was infamous for the amount of damage it caused along the New Jersey coastline. The shore towns of Long Beach Island, Barnegat, Atlantic City, Ocean City, and Cape May all suffered major damage. Long Beach Island and Barnegat Island both lost their causeways to the mainland in the storm effectively cutting them off from the rest of New Jersey. Additionally both islands lost hundreds of homes, in particular the Harvey Cedars section of Long Beach Island where many homes in the town were swept out to sea. In Atlantic City the hurricane's storm surge forced water into the lobbies of many of the resorts famous hotels. The Atlantic City boardwalk suffered major damage along with the citys famous ocean piers. Both the famed Steel Pier and Heinz Pier were partially destroyed by the hurricane with only the Steel Pier getting rebuilt. Ocean City and Cape May also lost many homes in the storm with Ocean City's boardwalk suffering significant damage. Larry Savadove's devotes a whole chapter in his book Great Storms of the Jersey Shore to the hurricane and the imprint and lore it left on the Jersey Shore.

Was that the storm of '44? I wasn't around for it but I've heard about it. I think of AC today and with all those glass buildings on the Boardwalk now and wonder how they'll make out in whatever it is we get this weekend. I guess time will tell...

Remember..even on a Major's west side,,the Winds will be Hurricane force and well inland if the track is offshore even by 30 Miles.

A North and NW Wind did the Superdomes Roof damage over 8 hours in a Cat 3 Western Eyewall.

And the Windows blown out the Hyatt Regency and other Hi Rises rained down for 10 hours


If staying in a Major Metro Area,,find a hard hat..your gonna need it.

012830 2337N 07518W 6968 02710 9508 +140 +131 298004 009 /// /// 03

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still droppin'...

012730 2334N 07521W 6967 02747 9540 +142 +139 317033 036 042 006 00

950.8 mb
(~ 28.08 inHg)

ALRIGHT!!

Who crashed this website!!!!