Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Skyepony:
Oceansat caught 90L 3 hrs later...pulling together..

Quoting CosmicEvents:


or an appendage.
.
.

kinda glad you didn't elaborate.

Quoting RedrumATL:


Regardless - wobbles do count when we're splitting hairs on this projected NHS track. Am I wrong?

Quoting weatherman566:
0z GFS 42 hours:

Quoting TampaSpin:

Quoting CosmicEvents:
or an appendage.
.
.
Anyone worried about those BAM models, don't be. Those are for weak systems, exactly the opposite of the beast we're dealing with here. There's ZERO chance of Irene coming anywhere near to Florida. Any forecaster who knows the teeniest bit about forecasting(like me) knows that the Bam's are moot.
.
This is an historic storm, potentially the biggest weather event we'll see in decades. All eyes should be peeled on the Northeastern cities and the heavily populated suburban areas and any coastal area from NC on up. And all of us should be sending out the warning to everyone we know in the area.

Quoting weatherman566:
0z GFS 42 hours:

Quoting Remek:


Nope, but I sort of understand...

1) It's the first major hurricane to threaten CONUS this year.
2) Close enough to more easily gather lots of extra data to evaluate/refine models and forecasts.
3) Starting early yesterday it became a major threat the nation's capital.
4) It also became a threat to the dense E.coast major population centers.
4) It also threatened one of the world's major financial centers.
5) The threat to DC and Wall St. (ie- very important/rich people) is probably the major reason. Aiding everyone else on the East US coast is a convenient side effect. ;P

Quoting Levi32:
The fact that Irene's pressure has not risen yet during the EWRC is actually fairly impressive, as almost all hurricanes exhibit some pressure rises during their replacement cycles. This means that Irene may be getting ready to really put on a show after the cycle completes, which is not good news for the northwest Bahamas.

Quoting TexasGulf:
A "hurricane barrier" on the Providence River in Rhode Island is a long earthen & rock dike, concrete lined in some places and also has three large closeable steel gates that span the river. During a hurricane, the barrier gates can be closed and pumps kick on to pump the river water over the barrier (so the river keeps flowing downstream and it doesn't back up).

Providence has a low lying downtown area, with some elevations only 8-9 feet above sea level, that would normally flood in a major storm surge. Since the "hurricane barrier" was built, it has protected the city from storm surges and they haven't flooded due to storm surge. I don't believe the barrier has ever been tested by more than an 8-foot storm surge.

Quoting Levi32:
The G-IV plane is sampling the upper low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as well as the environment around Irene. They obviously understand the difficulties that models have with cut-off upper lows, and are thus making sure some data is collected in that area as well. 25 of these dropsondes got into the 0z GFS, which is now running.

Quoting Levi32:
The fact that Irene's pressure has not risen yet during the EWRC is actually fairly impressive, as almost all hurricanes exhibit some pressure rises during their replacement cycles. This means that Irene may be getting ready to really put on a show after the cycle completes, which is not good news for the northwest Bahamas.

Quoting Levi32:
The fact that Irene's pressure has not risen yet during the EWRC is actually fairly impressive, as almost all hurricanes exhibit some pressure rises during their replacement cycles. This means that Irene may be getting ready to really put on a show after the cycle completes, which is not good news for the northwest Bahamas.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Irene's core has been strange for most of her life anyway.

Quoting Remek:


Nope, but I sort of understand...

1) It's the first major hurricane to threaten CONUS this year.
2) Close enough to more easily gather lots of extra data to evaluate/refine models and forecasts.
3) Starting early yesterday it became a major threat the nation's capital.
4) It also became a threat to the dense E.coast major population centers.
4) It also threatened one of the world's major financial centers.
5) The threat to DC and Wall St. (ie- very important/rich people) is probably the major reason. Aiding everyone else on the East US coast is a convenient side effect. ;P

Quoting Remek:


Nope, but I sort of understand...

1) It's the first major hurricane to threaten CONUS this year.
2) Close enough to more easily gather lots of extra data to evaluate/refine models and forecasts.
3) Starting early yesterday it became a major threat the nation's capital.
4) It also became a threat to the dense E.coast major population centers.
4) It also threatened one of the world's major financial centers.
5) The threat to DC and Wall St. (ie- very important/rich people) is probably the major reason. Aiding everyone else on the East US coast is a convenient side effect. ;P

Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Most all my relatives live there.

Quoting Skyepony:
Oceansat caught 90L 3 hrs later...pulling together..

Quoting Thrawst:


We're prepared... but according to satellite imagery... if these wobbles to the west (like what it's doing now) continue... it's quite possible that this could come 20-40 miles closer than what the NHC forecast has.

Quoting NYBizBee:
Ive lived in NYC my whole life. People will walk around 42st like nothing and the cabs will still be picking up those fares...:) Should be interesting to say the least if this goes over cen Long island. Chaos with 100mph winds.

Quoting Grothar:
Levi, you still up? Got a question.

Quoting tennisgirl08:


Future Jose...where's he going??

Quoting Levi32:
The fact that Irene's pressure has not risen yet during the EWRC is actually fairly impressive, as almost all hurricanes exhibit some pressure rises during their replacement cycles. This means that Irene may be getting ready to really put on a show after the cycle completes, which is not good news for the northwest Bahamas.

Quoting CCkid00:


There was ZERO chance of the Titanic sinking, too....according to those who knew the most about it! Until the storm is NORTH of Florida.....those people have every reason to be concerned. To not be at all, would be foolish.

Quoting Floodman:
One other thing...I think I see what SotrmPetrol was talking about...if she doesn't start a little jog east, she's going to the miss the next forecast point by about .5 of a DEGREE WEST...the forecast point is 76.5W25.5N and she will end up 77W25.5N...or are my eyes just getting bleary from gazing at IR maps and funktops?

Quoting weatherman566:
0z GFS 48 hours:

Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


To America, like so many others

Quoting Torgen:


Could you explain why Irene compresses against the east coast of Florida like that? Does the land heating up during the day cause that much high pressure, that the outer bands of low pressure can't get over land?