Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Its been doing a constant 312 for the last 17 hours... its just a very long slow turn right?
HWRF 84 HRS.
Looks like it shifted a little left from previous run.
11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 23.8°N 75.4°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Date-Time
Thursday, August 25, 2011 at 05:07:50 UTC
Thursday, August 25, 2011 at 01:07:50 AM at epicenter
Location 37.940°N, 77.896°W
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles)
Region VIRGINIA
Distances
7 km (5 miles) S (171°) from Mineral, VA
13 km (8 miles) SE (135°) from Louisa, VA
31 km (20 miles) NE (48°) from Columbia, VA
38 km (24 miles) E (86°) from Lake Monticello, VA
59 km (36 miles) NW (320°) from Richmond, VA
133 km (82 miles) SW (216°) from Washington, DC
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 11.3 km (7.0 miles); depth +/- 3 km (1.9 miles)
Parameters NST= 94, Nph=109, Dmin=52.3 km, Rmss=1.41 sec, Gp= 86°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=5
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usc0005jg1
Last post of the night for me. Anyone near Cape Hatteras needs to watch this one for any western shift.
Miami, FL
Wed, Aug 24, 2011, 11:50 PM EDT
Local Satellite Map
Updated Aug 25, 2011, 1:10am EDT
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Complete Storm Coverage
... MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED DANGEROUS SURF... RIP CURRENTS... AND MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
... WINDS... TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN EFFECT... NOR ARE THEY LIKELY UNDER PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY RANGE FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE GUSTS WILL BE IN RAIN SQUALLS... MAINLY OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
050800 2402N 07550W 6963 02712 9473 +166 +145 334013 014 018 001 03
HWRF 90 HRS.
Maybe not as far left as I initially thought.
050800 2402N 07550W 6963 02712 9473 +166 +145 334013 014 018 001 03
OK, OK,.....my bad......i just seen it and posted......LOL
URNT12 KNHC 250519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/05:07:40Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
075 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 75 kt
E. 050 deg 11 nm
F. 137 deg 96 kt
G. 045 deg 30 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 8 C / 3060 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN W-NE
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 04:57:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 135 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
from EMC Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch - not sure if this is the same as LSU. Not showing 27 all the way in, but it's close.
000
UZNT13 KNHC 250519
XXAA 75057 99240 70758 08045 99950 27200 27008 00957 ///// /////
92238 25600 28009 85983 22200 28509 70666 17025 33513 88999 77999
31313 09608 80508
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 2403N07583W 0512 MBL WND 27509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
509 950696 WL150 27510 084 REL 2403N07584W 050759 SPG 2403N07583W
051140 =
XXBB 75058 99240 70758 08045 00950 27200 11850 22200 22756 20241
33718 18049 44696 16421
21212 00950 27008 11850 28509 22751 32510 33696 33014
31313 09608 80508
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 22
62626 EYE SPL 2403N07583W 0512 MBL WND 27509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
509 950696 WL150 27510 084 REL 2403N07584W 050759 SPG 2403N07583W
051140 =
;
You are kidding?
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
No mention of the small inner eyewall.
L. Eye Character: Open from the west to the northeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
night
I'm going to bed... course 312 steady as an arrow, Port of track
It's OK, T. I forgot to put out the garbage the other night. No need to tell you what flak is. You want to switch places? :)
Same way I see it. It better starting being lifted due north soon or NE to stay on track.
Irene has a posse.
(not to discount your going thru EQ/aftershocks, just a humorous twitter post from the other day)
Appears the EWRC may be over then. The 8 mile wide eye in the previous vortex message has been replaced by the larger eye.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:19Z
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
Irene's gonna get nasty once the EWRC is over with.
Look at Irene's outflow.
Dang, glad you reminded me..........its garbage pick up tomorrow morning for us. BB in a minute.
Not quite, means that the outer eyewall has now choked off the inner eyewall and become the dominant feature, but hasn't closed off yet as reported by RECON. But she's getting there. And she's actually dropped 6 mb since the start of the cycle. Very very rare but larger storms do have the potential to resist rises in pressure during eyewall cycles.
Bullet Proof glass and solid granite walls. It's probably the most hurricane proof building in the city. I don't know anything about the storm surge potential though.
Felt the shock here in MD as well.
What an awful thing to say! Just keep your eye on this storm because mother nature does what mother nature wants to do. These same weathermen SHEN is relying on so much tells you it will rain when it doesn't. You are not ignorant just concerned as we all are and I've scene many hurricanes, storms do opposite of what "Experts" say. These same weathermen and computers have been wrong most of the time on this storm so far.
I would provide it if I knew what you wanted. Was it something I posted earlier?
Check the tracking dots vs the eye on the longer NOAA satellite loops. They've been pretty spot on so far.
After looking at it,,,,although it does not say marine......its for sure off shore.....SORRY
Check the tracking dots vs the eye on the longer NOAA satellite loops. They've been pretty spot on so far.
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