Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Relatives in Oradell and Ridgewood. Used to go down to Lavalette. Couldn't get this Fla. girl in THAT FREEZING water!!!!!!!!!
36Hours
Yes it is very heartbreaking. The dry air, soil, etc helps kill that rain as it heads this way as well. I am beginning to wonder how this drought will end without another Allison scenario.
Yup, really.
Thanks for reminding me that we will be able to see Irene's core with the Florida radars.
This scenario would be terrible for Grandpa. Let's pray the track goes east.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL (T1111)
6:00 AM JST August 25 2011
============================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Philippines
At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol (980 hPa) located near 16.0N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
100 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 125.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 18.8N 125.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 20.5N 124.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Is she moving due west?
What should I do!!!
the NHC please read their discussion
and listen to their info. It is good info.
She is at 75 right now, but maybe starting to make the turn or not.
Had a nice sustained, easterly breeze all day in Stuart. (on the map--top of Lake O, but on the E Coast.) I think we are close to due west from West End, Freeport, GB.
Wow...you must be looking into your crystal ball!
Wondering if Irene will be Katrina 2.0 in terms of destruction.
Almost 6 years to the day.
Hi Jerseygirl:
I know where you live -- worked there many years ago -- you are far enough inland that you should not need to shutter unless something changes on the models. I would wait until tomorrow to see the track. Unless it was coming directly inland into Jersey, which is not what I'm seeing, you probably aren't going to get weather worse than a really bad noreaster.
The rain/flooding issue will be something different, but as for the wind, the noreasters' that I went through when I lived there were about the same.
You definitely want to take down/put away objects that want to fly. Planters, misc yard stuff, pool stuff, patio furniture. They will move around.
you shoulda met my first wife
Oh okay I was talking about the whole state. I'm in East Orlando so same thing for me except Charley/Frances/Jeanne/little bit of Wilma.
Not looking too promising. (Promising for my house, not for business LOL)
98L absolutely murdered all of the SAL.
I'm confused... it looks like it is slowing down a lot form these projections and I wrong?
you're trying to start something....aren't you?
Texas In Worst Ever Drought, Hottest Ever Heat Wave
In coming years, the climate is expected to worsen for Texas, in large part because of the fossilized carbon extracted from underneath the now-dying land. “Triple-digit temperatures will be the norm in Texas
Nebraska?
You made me spit my drink on my computer screen..very funny stuff
It's also about 19 years to the day to Hurricane Andrew--maybe the second landfall in Louisiana was on the 24th?
Sorry, New England...LOL
Interesting.. I think the ULL is now starting to pull Irene north a bit more.. Though a storm cannot break through an ULL can it? Would have to go around.. Perhaps this is also why models show Irene going back north to NNW after a NNE movement. Can't wait for the reliable 00Z runs.
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