Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting atmosweather:


Western MA should expect to receive tropical storm force winds with the current NHC track, and 4-6 inches of rain at least, possibly higher if Irene tracks directly over the area or slightly to the W.

So since it would appear like she could track a little to the west of the NHC'c current track, I will be seeing stronger wind and heavier rain?

tracks have moved slighly to the west i see .Not by much but enough that my forecast of yesterday that said : from Mertle Beach to kitty hawk is still looking to hold .760 miles due south of Hatteras.the forecasted time was 2.00pm central miles away 905 miles.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM TALAS (T1112)
15:00 PM JST August 25 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Mariana Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (996 hPa) located near 19.4N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.8N 140.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.2N 140.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 25.0N 140.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Any which way you put it, someone in the East is going to be hurting from Irene before it's over. Hell might even be bad for Canada too.

Absolutely, that is a guarantee at this point in the game. At least one area of the East coast will face the brunt of a very dangerous hurricane, with possibly the entire coast feeling serious effects. And you are right about the impacts in SE-ern Canada. They will be looking at a very large extratropical storm pounding far E-ern Quebec and New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and SW-ern Nova Scotia with a lot of rain and gusty tropical storm force winds.

>Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

the NWS reports the strengthening way up north many times over the years. you ought to pay attention.

some hurricanes will make it to england

you should look up arctic hurricanes

i remember even the blizzard of 1978 in new england was a giant hurricane shaped storm over the northeast

pushing the warm water myth is telling people lies about the weather

Quoting Gorty:


So since it would appear like she could track a little to the west of the NHC'c current track, I will be seeing stronger wind and heavier rain?

Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.

Quoting atmosweather:


Absolutely, that is a guarantee at this point in the game. At least one area of the East coast will face the brunt of a very dangerous hurricane, with possibly the entire coast feeling serious effects. And you are right about the impacts in SE-ern Canada. They will be looking at a very large extratropical storm pounding far E-ern Quebec and New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and SW-ern Nova Scotia with a lot of rain and gusty tropical storm force winds.

Yup, we definitely don't want another Hazel in Canada. 81 lives were taken and 100 million dollars was done in damage (1 billion using today's dollars). Don't want to see the worst Hurricane disaster ever be repeated again.

Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.

And if Irene happens to take a track a little further W of the NHC forecast without crossing significant land in NJ, DE, NY and CT then there is a possibility she may still be a Category 1 hurricane moving into your area.

Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.

I really can't believe the models have actually SPREAD out with the latest run! Albeit not a huge spread but enough to cause even more uncertainty. They are having a hard time with that next trough I guess.

Quoting Floodman:


I'm sorry; my tinfoil hat was a little too tight and I missed a good deal of that...hurricanes strengthen over cold water you say? Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

Got to have a properly fitted hat

Based on the uper level cloud pattern and the track of the cyclone, Irene is apparently feeling the pull of the upper level low over the eastern Gulf. She's easily moving at an angle that is 15 to 20 degrees left of track with no wobbles for last 4-5 hours or so. The trend is unlikely to continue in the "significantly" longer term, but Nassau will likely have a harder hit, maybe even an eye passage. She's definately west of track, around 24.4 N, 76.0 W now.

Quoting atmosweather:


And if Irene happens to take a track a little further W of the NHC forecast without crossing significant land in NJ, DE, NY and CT then there is a possibility she may still be a Category 1 hurricane moving into your area.

A cat 2 can't be ruled out no matter the track.

23.5n75.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Irene's_6amGMT_ATCF
23.5n75.1w, 24.2n76.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24August_6amGMT and ending 25August_6amGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 12.5mph(20.1k/h) on a heading of 310.4degrees(NW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage nearly over Nassau(NewProvidence)Bahamas ~6&1/2_hours from now
H.Irene was headed toward passage between ChubCay and GreatHarborCay,Bahamas ~11hours from now
H.Irene was headed toward passage over IndianRiverEstates,Florida ~1day2hours from now

Copy&paste lgi, sml, rcy, tym, cat, nmc, cel, 21.3n72.5w-21.9n73.3w, 21.9n73.3w-22.7n74.3w, 22.7n74.3w-23.5n75.1w, 23.5n75.1w-24.2n76.0w, nmc, cel, nas, 23.5n75.1w-pid, ghb, elh, ccz, 23.5n75.1w-ghc, fpo, sua, 23.5n75.1w-27.346n80.277w, fpr, wkr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 25August_12amGMT)

Quoting Gorty:


I really can't believe the models have actually SPREAD out with the latest run! Albeit not a huge spread but enough to cause even more uncertainty. They are having a hard time with that next trough I guess.

It is the influence of a mid latitude trough that is expected to move towards the Great Lakes region that is causing the spread at days 4 and 5. If the trough were to amplify and deepen then Irene would be forced on more of a due N-erly track up the Mid Atlantic coast and into the NJ/NYC area.

Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.

Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?

Quoting Gorty:


A cat 2 can't be ruled out no matter the track.

At a possible landfall yes, definitely in the conversation especially with 3 major models (GFDL/HWRF/Euro) consistently forecasting a very intense hurricane maintaining strength all the way to the NE US coast. However once the storm made it 50-100 miles inland and into central or W-ern MA it would most likely weaken to a Category 1 storm or tropical storm.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?

My guess is eye wall replacement cycle.... looks like she is going to strengthen soon.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?

Only because of the EWRC she's going through right now, in about 12 hours or less, you'll see her ramp up again.

Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.

What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level

Quoting atmosweather:


At a possible landfall yes, definitely in the conversation especially with 3 major models (GFDL/HWRF/Euro) consistently forecasting a very intense hurricane maintaining strength all the way to the NE US coast. However once the storm made it 50-100 miles inland and into central or W-ern MA it would most likely weaken to a Category 1 storm or tropical storm.

So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?

Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.

Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.

Quoting Gorty:


So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?

Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.

Quoting atmosweather:


Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.

Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.

Looks like shes getting ready to take off again in intensity.

Quoting NJ2S:


What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level

That type of a track would be the worst case scenario for NJ, NYC and Long Island, your area included. If that sort of a track begins to look likely then you need to think about leaving the area and making necessary preparations to protect your life and property. The entire NE-ern portion of NJ would be under threat from hurricane force winds and if you live south of Newark near the southern portion of the Hudson then storm surge could be a major problem.

Quoting atmosweather:


Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.

Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?

Quoting Gorty:


Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.

It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.

Quoting prioris:
>Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

the NWS reports the strengthening way up north many times over the years. you ought to pay attention.

some hurricanes will make it to england

you should look up arctic hurricanes

i remember even the blizzard of 1978 in new england was a giant hurricane shaped storm over the northeast

pushing the warm water myth is telling people lies about the weather

So what your saying is that the definition of a hurricane is wrong and that you have discovered cold water tropical cyclones? That's amazing! Tell me more...or not; up to you. So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely? If you tell me pressure differntial we'll have to argue for a while...just saying

Quoting atmosweather:


It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.

Ok thanks for all your input. Still a dangerous situation for me. The first outer band is forecast to come at me sat. night. Going to be interesting how strong the winds will be with the very first band of the cyclone.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?

That would depend on the strength and exact tilt of the mid latitude trough. I'd say it's unlikely that it would amplify far enough to impart a W-erly component to the motion by days 4 and 5. However if the trough comes in more negatively tilted, similar to what the 00z GFS is hinting at, then she could move on a slightly NNW course through the NE US.

An air force hurricane hunter plane is flying back into Irene to make a center fix for the 5AM advisory.

Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/

week front comming in from the north west so we will have to wait and see Irene get past the mid atlantic first .
Nothing is out of the question with any tropical system . They can head nw tun so much that they wind up farther south and west of position .
however i think it is more plausable NC at as i have said mertle to kitty hawk .next post 2 pm
see you guys
Dew

Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.

agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.

>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.

The NOAA G-IV plane ("Gonzo") has now sent down 11 dropsondes around the SE US coast sampling more and more of the environment for input in the 12z models.

Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.

Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats

Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.

Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.

Quoting Gorty:
Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.

The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.

Quoting Floodman:
Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats

lead lined beanies hmmm Good idea flood

Floodman I really don't want to hear about your tin foil hats. i think that's what those government paid posters talk about all the time.

Quoting atmosweather:


The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.

Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of my seat very concerned till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/

Ca...ca...ca.ca.....ca....ca......category SIX!?!?!?!?!

Quoting Gorty:


Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of seat till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.

That's the best thing you can do. Be prepared and keep a very watchful eye until that evil monster gets out of dodge lol.

Quoting atmosweather:


Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.

oh ouch, and I'm guessing you live on the east coast too?

I live on the west coast (Southern California specifically) so its not too late here

Quoting prioris:
>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.

I'd love to discuss this with you further, I truly would; your take on things is fascinating, if somewhat, er, unconventional...unfortunately, I must retire as I have a particularly long day ;preparing for our govenr,ments (or is it someone elses) artificially induced weather catastrophe. Have a wonderful evening; next time you make it to this sector you must really look us up...

I think the NHC will shift their track a little west for New England area for 5 am but the cone may very well stay the same.