Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Irene slightly weaker, but still very dangerous

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 20:59 GMT le 25 août 2011

+28

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating Irene has found a slightly weaker storm. As of 4pm EDT, the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were 91 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 114 mph. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene has fallen to Category 2 strength with 100 - 105 mph winds, even though the official advisory is higher. The aircraft noted that the eyewall was missing a large chunk on it southwest side, but the central pressure was about the same as early this morning, 950 mb. Satellite imagery from late this morning and early this afternoon showed a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This was due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear was able to disrupt Irene's circulation while it was attempting to complete an eyewall replacement cycle, resulting in dry air getting wrapped into the core, which can be seen as a streak of darker clouds in this morning's MODIS satellite image (Figure 1.) satellite loops show that Irene is beginning to recover from this adversity, with a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms beginning to wrap around to the southwest side from the north. An upper-level wind analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS site shows that Irene's upper-level outflow is much more restricted than was the case 24 hours ago. An upper-level outflow channel that was open to the south is gone, and has been replaced by shearing winds from the west and southwest that are ripping into the hurricane. I think it is 30% likely that Irene will have trouble recovering from this setback, and will not reach the peak intensity of 120 mph winds it had earlier. However, it is more likely that the hurricane will be able to re-establish its upper-level outflow and overcome the shear, based on the latest satellite loops, plus forecasts from the various hurricane models such as the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF, which all show Irene at Category 3 strength as it approaches North Carolina on Saturday afternoon.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Thursday August 25, when Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The eye of the storm was just off the coast of Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Note the rather squashed appearance of the hurricane, with less heavy thunderstorms on its southwest side. Upper level winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southwest were eating away at the clouds on this side, and you can see that this shear helped drive some dry air into the hurricane, which can be seen as a darker strip of cloud spiraling into the center from the south, around the east side, then into the center along the northwest side of the storm. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In this morning's post, I highlighted the threat from storm surge flooding, but flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are also a huge threat. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 12" to 100-mile swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. At Philadelphia, rainfall so far this August has been 13 inches, not far from the record for rainiest month of all-time, the 15.82" that fell in August 1867. This record will almost certainly be broken when Irene's rains arrive. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.

Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday August 30, as issued by NOAA/HPC.

Latest forecast for Irene
The latest set of model runs don't show any major changes to Irene's track or intensity. Irene will bring damaging winds, torrential rains, and an extremely dangerous storm surge to the coast, affecting a huge area of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Take this storm seriously! Expect widespread disruptions to electric power, transportation, and water systems. Be prepared for many days without power, as utility crews will be overwhelmed with the damage. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is a very dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Jeff Masters

Irene Rainband from downtown Ft. Lauderdale (pho)

8/25/11 0910 local time.

HurricaneIreneIsOutThere! (trigirl)

Early at the beach to snap the waves from Hurricane Irene east of our coast, the wind was unreal with thunderclouds rolling in with lots of rain for the day.

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901. ncstorm 00:37 GMT le 26 août 2011
18Z NOGAPS.. Link Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8845

902. thelmores 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting Engine2: Wonder what the GFS has that makes it the eastern outlier Made in America? LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

903. Stanb999 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
A few suggestions for all you folks in the potential path. Remember effects can be felt more than 150 miles from the storms center. Beat the rush! Get out to the store. All of this stuff keeps for many months or years and will cost less than about two hundred bucks. Get to your bank and get enough cash for a week! Atm's and credit machines don't work without power or phones. Get your grill propane tank full. If you lose power you will be able to cook. Not needed if you have Nat. gas. Yes you can light it with a match. Just do it quick. Try it now! Get a battery powered radio. So you can get important updates. Get a few of those LCD head lamps (One for each family member) and a few batteries. "dork lights" work great and are actually very handy. Candles can be knocked over and cause a tragedy.... Go to bed at night. Get a gallon of water for each member of your household.. it should last for at least 4 days. FEMA says you need at least 3 days worth. This is for drinking or cooking only. Yeah brush, but you smell fine! Get some power bars... they taste like crap but will keep you going. Get a few cans of easy meals... once again 4 days worth. Make sure you have pet food! Get a few 4x8 tarps. They are real cheap and can block a window or leaky roof. Fill the fuel tank on your car. You want it FULL. On the day of the storm if it looks bad.... Clear your yard of stuff. Fill your bathtub with water. It's not for drinking, it's for flushing. If you lose water pressure use the adage "If it's yellow let it mellow. If it's brown flush it down" In a system wide power outage you may not have water or sewer service. They use electric pumps too. Prepare a bag with a few days clothes, any medications and personal care items. Put a folder together with your important papers. Before you evacuate... If asked to. Take your pre-prepared bag with you. Grab your important papers. Shut off your gas at the meter, shut off your power at the breaker box. Lock and secure your house as best you can. GET OUT! P.S. This is my work... Feel free to repost or e-mail to family or friends in harms way. Good luck to you all. Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

904. KeyWestwx 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting thelmores: That IS what we do! LOL I'm a cane nerd and proud of it! My co-workers have nic-named me Wendy the weather girl LOL!! Member Since: 20 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261

905. sugarsand 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting presslord: somebody ran outta Valium before they ran outta month Classic, Press. Member Since: 13 septembre 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

906. NCSCguy 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Is florida getting sustained TS winds or gusts? Member Since: 17 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78

907. charlottefl 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting NCSCguy: Is florida getting sustained TS winds or gusts? Gusts..and mainly the east coast.. Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685

908. TomTaylor 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: 804. When the eye is on the very outer edge of the long-range scan it is going to often appear open even when it is not. It's not a great idea to use it unless it shows a closed eyewall, at which point you can probably bet it actually is closed. If it shows an opening, it may or may not be there. Quoting E46Pilot: Exactly, the radar beam is line of sight. So when the storm is that far away, the radar is just picking up the very tops of the eye. I know that, I mentioned that bias in my post... Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 4053

909. AstroHurricane001 00:38 GMT le 26 août 2011
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY Side-by-side comparison, Bahamas storm: Irene vs. Floyd (images may expire): Irene, 21Z Aug. 24, 2011 Floyd, 21Z Sep. 13, 1999 Postscript: Irene had expanded since the first picture was taken. Remember to look at the relative size of the storm rather than the diameter of the eye. Track and predicted intensity are somewhat similar. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

910. TomTaylor 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Latest HPC QPF for the next 5 days... Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 4053

911. UKHWatcher 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: Irene really has me worried about the catastrophic affects that it can cause in so many States, The United States feeds the whole world( well basically), I know we ( here in Grand Cayman & the sister Islands) are very dependent on the US for our imports, the ramifications of this hurricane will be felt worldwide I'm afraid :(( Utter Rot! The US barely feeds itself and you get the scraps. If you're talking bout the economy, it feeds other's even less nowadays.. everything in the economic future points to China... Sorry. Typhoon Nanmadol is a scary storm, been ravaging my wife's friend's coastal town for four days now and getting closer before stil before forecast (re)curvature. Good to know they're safe. Member Since: 14 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 127

912. ncstorm 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Wilmington Star News 8 p.m.-Irene to start moving past Florida tonight With winds clocking in at 115 mph, Hurricane Irene is centered about 500 miles south of Wilmington. It is expected to pass well offshore of the central and north Florida coast tonight and early Friday, and approach North Carolina on Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm remains a Category 3 hurricane, but forecaster say some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday. The strongest winds are expected rake coastal communities in New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties. But Columbus and Bladen will also feel the effects, with tropical storm-like conditions to extend to inland areas. Widespread power outages are expected once the storm strikes. Weak structures could receive damage, as could awnings, siding and roofing, particularly along the coast from Southport and Bald Head Island toward Surf City, which lie in especially precarious positions considering their geographic location has them jutting out into the ocean. Trees could also topple over, and debris is likely. Between 7 and 9 inches of rain may fall on the tri-county area, leading to flash floods. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8845

913. JHook 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I doubt it collapsed, in fact I'm almost completely sure it hasn't. It just isn't closed. ---- So, Trop, would you - or anyone else who cares to - disabuse me of some of my ignorance on this subject (re: Irene, specif)? Even more specifically...do we know at all to what degree the confidence level on CONUS, GFS, NOGAPS, et al have improved since 2005? What ambient factors provide some confidence that Irene will not find a Western tack more to its liking 12-24-36 hr from now? Any semblance of an answer you are able to give on this can o worms would be very edifying, I have no doubt Member Since: 2 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

914. waynehelpardNS 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting Dragod66: Nova Scotia is like a extropical/tropical/hurricane magnet as of late, and will slowly start pulling the models east... imo That's three NS guys on here? Where you from? I agree as well, I still half expect to see it come east, just for the fact whenever there is a nice storm coming our way it wanks east at the last minute and misses off the coast. I expect a yank east before it's all said and done from this one too. Member Since: 11 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

915. thelmores 00:39 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting summerland: Do we have an updated speed for Irene? She was chugging along at 14mph, but that reading was a while ago now. In the last hour or so, sure looks less than 14 to me! Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

916. floridaT 00:40 GMT le 26 août 2011
worst part is end of month for people that happen to be unfortunate sorry hotels in another town just not in budget money spent on bills Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 712

917. depalma13 00:40 GMT le 26 août 2011
Live in Florida and just had a very small feeder band shower go through and knocked a branch off of one of my trees. I'm expecting local media to swarm any minute. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 88

918. Dragod66 00:41 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting waynehelpardNS: That's three NS guys on here? Where you from? I agree as well, I still half expect to see it come east, just for the fact whenever there is a nice storm coming our way it wanks east at the last minute and misses off the coast. I expect a yank east before it's all said and done from this one too. again... Bedford lol Member Since: 24 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 470

919. JrWeathermanFL 00:41 GMT le 26 août 2011
I name again. Ivan, Ike, Igor, Isabel. Member Since: 19 juillet 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1089

920. ncstorm 00:41 GMT le 26 août 2011
I just came from the grocery store and gas station..bananas! People are stocking up here and heeding the warning Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8845

921. charlottefl 00:41 GMT le 26 août 2011
ummm... Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685

923. TampaSpin 00:42 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting redux: my 4th story apartment building in downtown baltimore is probably 100 years old. i have about 5 windows that are 4' tall. I don't have that much that I would lose sleep over, but the few that I do I am going to move around.... I don't really know what I can do to prepare. not planning on hunkering down in a place with this much glass....but I really don't know what to do. Probably either go to a party or hunker down with the old man.... have plenty of food and water and all that.... I really don't know what I should be doing. Which direction are those windows facing is very important......if your on a 4th floor you will feel the full affects of Irene. Those Windows will have a good chance at blowing out. I suggest you go to a freinds or relatives house that is inland as much as possible.......maybe your local shelter even. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

924. CarolinaHurricanes87 00:42 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: I just came from the grocery store and gas station..bananas! People are stocking up here and heeding the warning Really? I went out about 330 to stock up, trying to get it in before everyone got out of work and saw the hurricane warning. Guess it was a good idea. How close do you think she'll end up being when she passes us? Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 471

925. EYEStoSEA 00:42 GMT le 26 août 2011
Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1491

926. FLWaterFront 00:43 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: 18Z NOGAPS.. Link Wrong link, I think. When I opened it, it was not the NOGAPS model forecast but the NHC TS wind probabilities forecast. Member Since: 15 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 497

927. snotly 00:43 GMT le 26 août 2011
don't forget that the rain and distance attenuates the return. Quoting E46Pilot: Exactly, the radar beam is line of sight. So when the storm is that far away, the radar is just picking up the very tops of the eye. Member Since: 27 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 673

929. bluenosedave 00:44 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting Dragod66: Bedford Ah. I'm from Spryfield, originally. I suppose you have some Juan stories. Missed us completely down here. Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 329

930. RavensFan 00:44 GMT le 26 août 2011
is the eye that small or is that just a part that isnt filled in with clouds currently? Member Since: 16 août 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 78

931. ConnecticutWXGuy 00:44 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting snotly: don't forget that the rain and distance attenuates the return. not to mention intense rainfall often times blocks much of the radar beam in hurricanes... particularly at long distances. Member Since: 17 novembre 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 521

933. stormpetrol 00:44 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting UKHWatcher: Utter Rot! The US barely feeds itself and you get the scraps. If you're talking bout the economy, it feeds other's even less nowadays.. everything in the economic future points to China... Sorry. Typhoon Nanmadol is a scary storm, been ravaging my wife's friend's coastal town for four days now and getting closer before stil before forecast (re)curvature. Good to know they're safe. Its ok man , I ain't going to argue about it, I'm a UK citizen also and hold a UK passport, but the fact is, that we here in the Caymans, about 90% of our imports comes from Uncle Sam & despite their personal politics & such, I'm very pro-American, if they sneeze, we catch the cold , simple as that, of course I'm very loyal to the Mother Country, just facts! Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494

934. 900MB 00:44 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I agree about the Category 3 hurricane landfall, think Category 2 is selling Irene a little short. Ditto you and tampa Spin. I think we are at 135 at some point next 24 hours and possibly 100mph or 105mph NY landfall. Not good! Member Since: 11 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 615

935. JLPR2 00:45 GMT le 26 août 2011
Almost a TS. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1009.3mb/ 34.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.2 2.2 2.2 But... Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7529

936. novascotiaweatherbug 00:45 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting Dragod66: again... Bedford lol Member Since: 23 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

939. A4Guy 00:46 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting charlottefl: ummm... ummmm....what? Member Since: 23 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646

940. floridaT 00:46 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting libertygirl: I prefer another blogger here on the underground. His threads don't become shooting matches for "I'm right, you're wrong" "know all" mentality. People share immediate area info, etc. and don't take on the "weather god" mentality. The funniest part - you all are doing this on Jeff Master's blog! Keep learning. I've learned too much lurking on this blog, about the EGO of weather nerds. Not saying all...but many, and it's gotten old...like predicting Irene. Peace to ya' and stay safe. i like liberty Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 712

941. 900MB 00:46 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy: not to mention intense rainfall often times blocks much of the radar beam in hurricanes... particularly at long distances. Not to mention, on the funktop, eye looks around 45 nautical miles. Member Since: 11 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 615

942. ConnecticutWXGuy 00:47 GMT le 26 août 2011
that's odd... nobody has attacked me directly for predicting that the hurricane misses Florida tonight... but 24 hours ago.... I felt like I was in Viet Nam. Nobody is claiming that the trough causing the shift in direction somehow "doesn't exist" either. wonder why the change of heart ;) Member Since: 17 novembre 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 521

943. Dragod66 00:47 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting bluenosedave: Ah. I'm from Spryfield, originally. I suppose you have some Juan stories. Missed us completely down here. Ohh yeah, lost power for a week and a half, no school for two weeks, lots of roofs blown off... literally cooked everything in the freezer on the bbq including pizza. Member Since: 24 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 470

944. charlottefl 00:47 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting A4Guy: ummmm....what? Getting very tight for Irene between those 2 Highs.. That may be some of the slow down that's apparent recently.. Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685

946. RavensFan 00:47 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting NoVaForecaster: CNN= This is NOT the day for tomorrow or whatever that movie is...... day after tomorrow lol and no it isnt. that movie also was a meteorological blunder anyways Member Since: 16 août 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 78

947. HurricaneHAM 00:48 GMT le 26 août 2011
I'm thankful to all that contribute great information on this blog! Our local news here in Raleigh/Wake Forest is making it sound like Irene is not that big of a deal for us. I'm not 100% convinced that the track will not move a little farther west. I would like to get your input for those of us in the Raleigh area. I'm thinking quite a bit of rain with tropical storm forced winds causing power outages throughout the area. What do you think? A little more significant than what the local mets are saying? Thanks in advance! Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

948. PaulinJax 00:48 GMT le 26 août 2011
August 25, 2011 8:20 pm EDT Location: 28.906N 78.471W Wind Direction: NE (40°) Wind Speed: 38.9 knots Wind Gust: 46.7 knots Significant Wave Height: 25.9 ft Dominant Wave Period: 15 sec Average Period: 8.8 sec Atmospheric Pressure: 29.45 in (997.4 mb) Air Temperature: 80.1°F (26.7°C) Water Temperature: 84.6°F (29.2°C) Irene's pushing alot of water around Member Since: 3 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

949. MiamiHurricanes09 00:48 GMT le 26 août 2011
Kermit going in for a center fix. Pressure decreasing... 002830 2732N 07826W 7528 02338 9837 157 145 004064 064 058 003 00 Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

950. summerland 00:49 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting redux: my 4th story apartment building in downtown baltimore is probably 100 years old. i have about 5 windows that are 4' tall. I don't have that much that I would lose sleep over, but the few that I do I am going to move around.... I don't really know what I can do to prepare. not planning on hunkering down in a place with this much glass....but I really don't know what to do. Probably either go to a party or hunker down with the old man.... have plenty of food and water and all that.... I really don't know what I should be doing. Google "hurricane preparedness" and start reading. There's advice for taking care of your windows to prevent or minimize shattering. Check the storm surge link in the blog post above -- if there's going to be flooding in your area, realize that it will flood the basement of your building, and thus kill the power to your building if any power is to be had. Water plant pump stations rely on power, too, so you need to be prepared to live without power or water for about five days. That means getting cash, and also stocking up on food and water. If they tell you to evacuate, get to high ground, and be prepared to stay there for however long it takes them to confirm the area is liveable again -- they don't usually let people back in until the floods recede. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

951. StormJunkie 00:49 GMT le 26 août 2011
Quoting libertygirl: omg...has anyone considered that Irene is going to impact the entire MidAtlantic East Coast - not too mention the entire country at this point (financially)...no matter where she lands? Airports/flights being cancelled, mass transit, DC/NYC financial/gov't districts and last but not least - NUCLEAR POWER FACILITIES? Who cares anymore about the stats on Irene? She's fully in control of herself without the constant back and forth of what she's going to do - what is she doing now?! We know what she's going to do! Ok, I'll bite...Most of us HAVE considered that Irene is about to impact the nation as a whole, the eastern seaboard, and brothers, sisters, friends, family, etc. Matter of fact; many of us have been through it before. This "impact" is going to happen with or without this blog. As for people trying to figure out what it's going to do...Well, that's what the pros and amateurs are both trying to do. We all have a pretty good idea; but nothing is ever SET IN STONE! And I will speak for most everyone on this blog that our thoughts are going out to those that are about to be impacted. Moving on... 18z Surface Analysis. It seems she is being mostly steered by the 1016mb W edge of the Bermuda High. Now look at the shape of that high. The N & NNE component will come at some point; but I don't see it happening just yet. A little longer with the NNW it looks like, and I'm beginning to think that the longer this continues; the greater the risk to the Wilmington type area? Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

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