Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I think it is pretty apparent that Irene will hit the USA/Canada ... it is just where exactly will it hit

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just checked CNN's home page, and couldn't find a single mention of Irene! Now that's just irresponsible... For once, Fox is actually the reliable one (they have a big home page headline about it).

CNN is not really a reliable News source anymore, especially not for something like this.


I just stick to the Hurricane center and Mr. Masters concerning these things at this point. Mainstream media often confuses the facts/misinterprets key points.

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just checked CNN's home page, and couldn't find a single mention of Irene! Now that's just irresponsible... For once, Fox is actually the reliable one (they have a big home page headline about it).

It's top and center of the CNN home page

My biggest fear for this season is this...the SE coast is for lack of a better term "getting off the hook" with Irene but having been in the cone for several days on and off, it got attention...it is close enough with our astrnomical high tides to cause some pretty good erosion to our already half naked beaches and maybe some minor tree damage. Irene will scoot to the north and pulverize the central to NE coast...when the next good trough comes off and develops like Irene did...the attitudes will be oh, it isn't gonna hit...it will go where Irene did and the SE coast will take a beating...this season, and i mean from this past winter, to our spring to the HOT summer is so reminiscent of Hugo it is eerie and i have had SEVERAL Hugo survivors tell me the same thing about this season...there is just an uneasiness about it...

Quoting TheF1Man:


Welcome to the madness!

As I said, spent year of reading this blog so I am used to it :D

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just checked CNN's home page, and couldn't find a single mention of Irene! Now that's just irresponsible... For once, Fox is actually the reliable one (they have a big home page headline about it).

uh?? East Coast Prepares for Irene's Fury? Looks like that is all about Irene?

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That chart is a HUGE generalization and the reason they changed the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Each storm is different, for example look at Ike. He caused surge damage nowhere near the category two range. Storm surge depends on many factors other than maximum sustained winds. Also pressure can be different for each storm, depending on the size of the storm.

Yea I know a "Larger" storm can weaken to a CAT 1-2 but carry the type of storm surge seen with a CAT 3-4 for a smaller storm.

Best look all day, just before I pass out!

looks like Irene is going to go for a CAT 4 status the way she is organizing

Mis information by those who say this is gonna turn out to sea, it's not possible. Look at the pattern and you'll see Irene will most likely make landfall on Long Island.

Look at the last 4 entries from 04500Z to 21500Z for the Lat Long. There is an East jog that could be good and may be more than a wobble.

Link

Quoting CloudGatherer:


And it's currently finding waves of 34.8 ft - this is some storm.

Do I hear a 40? 45? 50? SOLD!

031930 2804N 07722W 6964 02632 9381 +175 +149 360006 010 022 001 03

Quoting RedrumATL:


Thanks for a response! i guess everyone else has me "IGNORE!" LOL

this link gives a simple explanation of what a jet streak is :-)

Link

Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


It's top and center of the CNN home page

Heh...just figured out for the first time they have a different CNN homepage if you're outside the US! Clever of them...stupid of me.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

according to this one we could get some pretty good TS winds...btw...glad to see ya Keep

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
031930 2804N 07722W 6964 02632 9381 +175 +149 360006 010 022 001 03

Don't believe they hit the exact center because they jogged back a little N-ward at the end of those readings trying to get to the region of lowest pressure.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yea I know a "Larger" storm can weaken to a CAT 1-2 but carry the type of storm surge seen with a CAT 3-4 for a smaller storm.

That's basically the single biggest threat, IMO, from storms like Irene to areas like New York/New Jersey.


What Ike taught us (weather lovers and the forecasting community that is) is that too often a storm can be taken for granted because of its wind speeds. What we forgot was that a storm that is very large in physical size but perhaps somewhat weaker in wind can do as much damage as a much smaller category 5 storm.

Quoting reedzone:
Mis information by those who say this is gonna turn out to sea, it's not possible. Look at the pattern and you'll see Irene will most likely make landfall on Long Island.

still possible it turns out to sea.

Looking NE track to me.....

Quoting BrockBerlin:


Several sub 940 extrapolations in that last set, pressure may be slightly higher but I honestly doubt it is higher than 940 at the moment.

Very weak northwestern quadrant. Winds mainly in the low-end category 1 range.

Quoting tiggeriffic:
My biggest fear for this season is this...

Your biggest fear is that a national catastrophe to the north will lull the southeast into complacence?

How about a little perspective, friend? If you want to take counsel of your fears, run a surge simulation for the NY/NJ coastline.

It's just surreal sometimes how tough this is to get across. Irene is globally bad news.

Finally got some rain today here in Corpus Christi. It was a welcome site. We even had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a while. Our mets down here are saying finally a major change is coming next weekend. We can expect some rain from the tropics! Hopefully just rain and nothing big like a hurricane..

Quoting TexasMariner:



As I said, spent year of reading this blog so I am used to it :D

I usually try not to post on here as I can hardly keep up with the reading! XD

Quoting P451:

I expected Irene to shape up for a "good showing" tomorrow. The added symmetry makes this storm look good, and a much uglier situation.

Quoting MelbourneTom:
Look at the last 4 entries from 04500Z to 21500Z for the Lat Long. There is an East jog that could be good and may be more than a wobble.

Link

Sorry man, I just don't see it. Latest satellite loops show that Irene has resumed her northward motion.

Besides, a wobble here and there isn't going to spare New England -- the pattern is unfavorable for recurvature.

Quoting reedzone:
Mis information by those who say this is gonna turn out to sea, it's not possible. Look at the pattern and you'll see Irene will most likely make landfall on Long Island.

I haven't seen anyone saying she's going out to sea...Lol. I might be reading over them, though.

WARNING!?!?!

I am noticing that Irene's structure around her eyewall is getting better organized. Her pressure has steadily dropped but the winds have remained the same. I have also noticed that the storm's eye is developing into a "pin hole" eye which is not the sort I like to see. This leads me to fear that we are going to have a RI that will bring the storm to a CAT 4 Hurricane

Link

Quoting atmosweather:


Depends on if she can close her eyewall back up to the S and SW, it is still open according to the NOAA plane and a little ragged looking at satellite imagery but if she continues to improve in organization the winds could very well catch up to the low pressure. Both planes have consistently seemed to find very intense winds from 850mb to 925 mb which is an indication that an improvement in her internal core will allow those types of winds to reach the surface.

It's all part of the process, soon come, very soon come.

Quoting TexasMariner:



CNN is not really a reliable News source anymore, especially not for something like this.


I just stick to the Hurricane center and Mr. Masters concerning these things at this point. Mainstream media often confuses the facts/misinterprets key points.

On TV they constantly update Irene's status evenhave a small pic in the corner of the screen to let people know

Quoting P451:
Fairly evident Irene is becoming embedded in the steering flow heading up the coast now. Check the retreating clouds in Florida especially west to east. Check the northern part of the storm being drawn right towards Wilmington, NC and the outer banks.



Still something a little funky going on with the southern portion of the CDO/Eyewall.

I would expect that to remedy itself as the night wears on. Irene should strengthen steadily overnight.

ummm...the red is the strongest part right?

I feel compelled to chime in. I went thru Ike in Kemah, Tx and lost most of my belongings (I evacuated and was glad I did). Born and raised on the gulf coast and went thru my share of Hurricanes. Ike was a freak and I think this storm (if it continues north) is going to catch a lot of people off guard. It seems to be comparable to Ike the storm. I always thought it ironic that Ike brought to the forefront the IKE parameter. They, the north easterners, have no clue about the IKE number (hats off to the Master for pounding on that fact that the storm surge has the potential to be off the hook). Ike was a cat 2 with the surge of a cat 4(?). I think it has the potential to be ugly!

Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


It's top and center of the CNN home page

CNN has been covering only 2 stories all day -- Irene and Libya.

Quoting MelbourneTom:
A big jog to the East. I hope it holds, would be a big dfference to NC.

Please - jogs and "misdirections" have there opportunities only in the earlier forecasts. Look at what 451 pointed out at the "PR swerve." That WAS the difference making - period! When we get to this point, and as the models "pull" there will be VERY little varience. We have a VERY BAD storm Tom that unfortunately will not be "slipping" off east.

historic storm for the mid atlantic. Terrible damage coming to obx. I'd like to go to sleep and wake up without this being real.

Quoting hulazigzag:
still possible it turns out to sea.

No, it's not unfortunately, unless the AB high practically disintegrates and every model is wrong.

Last Recon Center: 27.8167N 77.35W

New Estimated Recon Center: 28.067N 77.35 W (will be confirmed by recon shortly)

This is due north. Unfortunately, there is no easterly jog of the center yet even though satellite says otherwise.

Quoting Melagoo:
I think it is pretty apparent that Irene will hit the USA/Canada ... it is just where exactly will it hit

Plus 10 for you!!!!

The Air Force Hunter just found Extrapolated Surface Pressure of 938.1 and 938.2. Even if the Vortex Message chooses to play that conservatively, it'll set the pressure at 940. And that last NOAA reading of 937 no longer looks like a fluke.

Trying right now to find out what the plan is going to be for New York city and the island itself, as I have friends there. I would think they may consider closing Manhattan Island entirely if it looks like the surge will be as high as 10-15 feet. Here's to hoping that's not the case..........

New steering pattern.

Quoting amd:
Last Recon Center: 27.8167N 77.35W

New Estimated Recon Center: 28.067N 77.35 W (will be confirmed by recon shortly)

This is due north. Unfortunately, there is no easterly jog of the center yet even though satellite says otherwise.

Exactly! She is moving due north, and she got pulled that way due to the trough passing by to her north. She will probably bounce back a little west, maybe .3 but overall she is heading north to the NC coast.

Quoting MelbourneTom:
Look at the last 4 entries from 04500Z to 21500Z for the Lat Long. There is an East jog that could be good and may be more than a wobble.

Link

If you look at a long term animation, you'll see the eye has been bouncing around the heaviest area of convection, sort of like an unbalanced washing machine.

In the wise words of the Hamburgaler, "wobble wobble wobble".

Quoting victoriahurricane:


No, it's not unfortunately, unless the AB high practically disintegrates and every model is wrong.

I would have to agree. The trough was not really strong enough as some of the models were thinking it would be 72 hours ago. Irene is pretty much locked in at this point.


If anything, there is a risk it might actually move further west......

Quoting P451:
Fairly evident Irene is becoming embedded in the steering flow heading up the coast now. Check the retreating clouds in Florida especially west to east. Check the northern part of the storm being drawn right towards Wilmington, NC and the outer banks.



Still something a little funky going on with the southern portion of the CDO/Eyewall.

I would expect that to remedy itself as the night wears on. Irene should strengthen steadily overnight.

The amazing part of that image is that there is a spiral band reaching out to the Outer Banks!!!

Quoting KoritheMan:


Sorry man, I just don't see it. Latest satellite loops show that Irene has resumed her northward motion.

Besides, a wobble here and there isn't going to spare New England -- the pattern is unfavorable for recurvature.

Agreed.

The set up for the next 12 hours is for a NORTH motion - she may jog NNE - she may jog NNW - but overall motion should be to the north... tomorrow or around the NC OBX she should start turning more NNE. The models are in excellent agreement and while they can be wrong, only small shifts are to be expected now.