Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting KoritheMan:


Sorry man, I just don't see it. Latest satellite loops show that Irene has resumed her northward motion.

Besides, a wobble here and there isn't going to spare New England -- the pattern is unfavorable for recurvature.

Agreed.

The set up for the next 12 hours is for a NORTH motion - she may jog NNE - she may jog NNW - but overall motion should be to the north... tomorrow or around the NC OBX she should start turning more NNE. The models are in excellent agreement and while they can be wrong, only small shifts are to be expected now.

TROPICAL STORM JOSE COMING! The storm is looking better organized. I also think he is going to be moving a little further westward than all the models are showing. Are any of you think the same?

Link

938.1 mb
(~ 27.70 inHg)

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just checked CNN's home page, and couldn't find a single mention of Irene! Now that's just irresponsible... For once, Fox is actually the reliable one (they have a big home page headline about it).

It's the top story when I look. Where are you located? If in Europe, you might see a different front page.

That was a clear NE move......

Quoting MelbourneTom:
Look at the last 4 entries from 04500Z to 21500Z for the Lat Long. There is an East jog that could be good and may be more than a wobble.

Link

A minor jog to the East may do more harm than good... right now the North East section of the country needs it to go over NC for a significant amount of time - I know that's kind of a poor way to think about it, but the damage this storm could do, economically speaking, to the country with a mostly water path to that part of the country is immense. When you add that to the economic straits the country is already in - this could have wide and far ranging effects on the nation for years to come. Personal safety is #1 always, but it won't be the only impact.

Quoting CloudGatherer:
Your biggest fear is that a national catastrophe to the north will lull the southeast into complacence?

How about a little perspective, friend? If you want to take counsel of your fears, run a surge simulation for the NY/NJ coastline.

It's just surreal sometimes how tough this is to get across. Irene is globally bad news.

had u actually READ the post, i said that the NORTH would get totalled...the south would fall into complacence as we didn't take the HIT...and the next storm would nail the SOUTH... i live in the south...Charleston to be exact...we were IN the cone for a few days...it was headed right for us... storms since and probably before HUGO have done it a number of times...people get tired of buying what they are supposed to and a storm turns...has happened here a LOT of times since HUGO alone...i went thru Hugo bud...i have a right to have a fear of this season..

Quoting TexasMariner:



CNN is not really a reliable News source anymore, especially not for something like this.


I just stick to the Hurricane center and Mr. Masters concerning these things at this point. Mainstream media often confuses the facts/misinterprets key points.

I say stick with Fox, they will always steer you in the right direction.

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just checked CNN's home page, and couldn't find a single mention of Irene! Now that's just irresponsible... For once, Fox is actually the reliable one (they have a big home page headline about it).

You must be blind then or a Faux News Groupie....

Per CNN home page: "East Coast Prepares for Irene's Fury".....

Quoting hulazigzag:
still possible it turns out to sea.

Buzz is may miss OBX. Some pro surfers down here with their film crew for shooting this weekend are apparently tied in well with some weather peeps who are saying may stay east of OBX. All hearsay on part, but these guys really seem to get good information. Watching closely and may try and shoot some footage up the coast if goes east. Obviously, TWC channel kook want everyone to believe worst case scenario. Anyway, watch and see if models start following BAM. Maye be close call and nothing more.

Did some circles in the eye. The lowest they found:

032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 173 156 228035 039 039 001 00

Quoting Tazmanian:
938.1 mb
(~ 27.70 inHg)

click your red shoes, Dorothy. Even with the shear, we have someone wanting more from the warm waters.

Quoting Melagoo:

On TV they constantly update Irene's status evenhave a small pic in the corner of the screen to let people know

Well then good for them.


But I am saying its not a good source, at least not compared to going directly to "the source" I.E. the Hurricane Center (IMHO anyway).


Personally, I think its best if people watch the news, but that they also go to the NHC website and see the facts straight from the horses mouth. Less chance of confusion that way (especially if you read the "public advisorys" instead of just the forecast discussion.)

Very broad low pressure center according to the AF plane...I'm interested to see what the dropsonde finds with regard to height levels.

Quoting P451:
Fairly evident Irene is becoming embedded in the steering flow heading up the coast now. Check the retreating clouds in Florida especially west to east. Check the northern part of the storm being drawn right towards Wilmington, NC and the outer banks.



Still something a little funky going on with the southern portion of the CDO/Eyewall.

I would expect that to remedy itself as the night wears on. Irene should strengthen steadily overnight.

Take a look at the water vapor loop of the central U.S. and let me know what you think of the position of the cont. high and its affect on the eventual track. Please

Best guess, track models a bit east in am, 135mph by 8 am, we'll see. Night all!

...and juking around inside the eye, finding the true center, the Air Force comes up with 937.8. I take it back. The next vortex message is going to fix the pressure below 940.

they this found 937 and i think they hit the cneter

937.8 mb
(~ 27.69 inHg)

Seems like Irene consistently has a dry air slot. Now she has one to the north of her. Just another example of why she won't rapidly intensify. Gradual to steady strengthening is reasonable.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Did some circles in the eye. The lowest they found:

032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 +173 +156 228035 039 039 001 00

Hmm......... Looking at the sat images, really in the last 2 hours or so the eye seems to be trying to firm up...... and contracting.


Looking like she is starting to come back up.

The greatest contributors in the history of this planet have been those who's ideas have been outside the mainstream. There are a few people who know a lot about the dynamics of weather. There are a hell of a lot more who are riding their coat tails just to insult and hurt those who see or think different. I learn a lot more when Levi and some of the others responding to an off the wall statement than I do when everyone says yes.

EAST COAST PREPARES FOR IRENES FURY is what i see on their website:

Link

Her western side is still crappy - Irene is NOT going to strengthen much more unless she is able to improve on her west and south sides... maybe 120/125 but won't go higher than that (definitely not Cat. 4)

As some has said, she has until 31 degrees NORTH or so to strengthen...

Quoting P451:


Doomed.

That would be the Philippines..

Quoting TexasMariner:



That's basically the single biggest threat, IMO, from storms like Irene to areas like New York/New Jersey.


What Ike taught us (weather lovers and the forecasting community that is) is that too often a storm can be taken for granted because of its wind speeds. What we forgot was that a storm that is very large in physical size but perhaps somewhat weaker in wind can do as much damage as a much smaller category 5 storm.

actually in all honesty, I am peterified that we are going to get "Katrina Gulf Coast" destruction from NC to Maine. I believe this because of the size of the storm which was pretty much close to the size of Katrina. The only difference is that Katrina was a CAT 5 storm right before landfall BUT Irene could go through some RI and so anything is possible. I dont think too much on this but just fear that it could happen. I mean even a level lower than Katrina by 10 ft would be disturbing to see.

Whats up guys?

I see Irene is getting her act together.

Getting some good breezes and winds here even inland in NE FL in Jax tonight. Clouds moving really fast but no rain tonight. Feels nice outside though for sure!

03:25:00Z 27.900N 77.083W 695.8 mb
(~ 20.55 inHg) 2,693 meters
(~ 8,835 feet) 947.3 mb
(~ 27.97 inHg) - From 224° at 101 knots
(From the SW at ~ 116.1 mph) 14.0°C*
(~ 57.2°F*) -* 104 knots
(~ 119.6 mph) 85 knots
(~ 97.7 mph)

Finally getting some decent surface winds. The winds are starting to catch up.

To me, a disaster is not measured by the number of people affected nor the dollar amount of property lost. A disaster is something that affects ONE person I love. Be aware, prepare, and heed advice. It's always better to be be safe rather than sorry.

08/25 20:45Z



08/26 02:45Z

0Z steering:



Short term dont see much room to go east.

What is that huge cyclonic kink to the A/B high NNE of the Islands?

And, look at the screamer down there in the Pacific!

I'd say it's legit.

Winds don't support the C3 intensity. We'll have to see if that changes.

Quoting victoriahurricane:
03:25:00Z 27.900N 77.083W 695.8 mb
(~ 20.55 inHg) 2,693 meters
(~ 8,835 feet) 947.3 mb
(~ 27.97 inHg) - From 224° at 101 knots
(From the SW at ~ 116.1 mph) 14.0°C*
(~ 57.2°F*) -* 104 knots
(~ 119.6 mph) [b]85 knots
(~ 97.7 mph)[/b]

Finally getting some decent surface winds. The winds are starting to catch up.

I'm starting to really feel it for the east coast

000
URNT12 KNHC 260334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/03:20:00Z
B. 28 deg 04 min N
077 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2588 m
D. 66 kt
E. 264 deg 8 nm
F. 359 deg 83 kt
G. 272 deg 11 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 13 C / 3047 m
J. 18 C / 3047 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm
P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 107 KT SE QUAD 03:25:40Z

Pressure remains the same but 700 mb height continues to drop, she is still trying to deepen.

Cloud cover over the eye starting to clear.

Quoting angiest:
0Z steering:



Short term dont see much room to go east.

What is that huge cyclonic kink to the A/B high NNE of the Islands?

And, look at the screamer down there in the Pacific!

The kink is an upper low that has been spinning north of the Lesser Antilles for a few days. It is also playing an important role with Irene, acting to serve as an outflow channel.

oh and 98L still lurking. It is shown moving towards the NE and the East Coast as well (Some going out to Sea).

Link

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)

That's just a remarkable pair of observations, even granting that it found 85 kt SFMR winds on its outbound flight. On wind strength alone, Irene is scarcely a Cat 2 storm.

Quoting wolftribe2009:


actually in all honesty, I am peterified that we are going to get "Katrina Gulf Coast" destruction from NC to Maine. I believe this because of the size of the storm which was pretty much close to the size of Katrina. The only difference is that Katrina was a CAT 5 storm right before landfall BUT Irene could go through some RI and so anything is possible. I dont think too much on this but just fear that it could happen. I mean even a level lower than Katrina by 10 ft would be disturbing to see.

Well not exactly. Size only goes so far. For the first landfall, provided she comes in as a 3 and based on the surge models as they are now I think 19-22 foot range is probably a fair bet. Secondary landfall in New York/Jersey will be anywhere from 7-15 feet, quite a bit less.

Recall that Katrina was nearly 34 feet, if memory serves.....

So really nothing as bad as Katrina, but if you have a home on the coast of NC you may be out of luck, I am sorry to say :(

There still might be a break in the eyewall, although this is about 90 minutes old now:

Quoting houstongator:
A minor jog to the East may do more harm than good... right now the North East section of the country needs it to go over NC for a significant amount of time - I know that's kind of a poor way to think about it, but the damage this storm could do, economically speaking, to the country with a mostly water path to that part of the country is immense. When you add that to the economic straits the country is already in - this could have wide and far ranging effects on the nation for years to come. Personal safety is #1 always, but it won't be the only impact.

That's the second comment you've made tonite, and I've only seen two, that I totally agree with.

Quoting P451:


She is doing curleycue wobbles. She has always done these since before she was even upgraded and named.

The stairstep wobble can affect an overall track outcome versus a track forecast, such as Earl last year did.

A curleycue will trick you into thinking you have a nne jog, nnw jog, stall, nne, nnw, stall situation with Irene. The overall storm motion however is north. This type of wobble does not affect the overall forecast track.



It is always advised to consult a long duration imagery loop to look for storm heading and ignore the short term wobbles.

Nice explanation.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
There still might be a break in the eyewall, although this is about 90 minutes old now:

You are correct. The vortex message says the eye is still open to the southwest.

Irene has struggled to keep her eye closed for days now.