Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD#10 looks like a TS

I'm hoping for a very extended wobble to the EAST. I guess you could call me a wobblecaster - but I don't care. I want this storm to provide as minimal an impact as it possibly can.

Quoting franck:
A little east of north now?

I think that's just a wobble, but i could be wrong.

Quoting VBgirl:
I don't want to "take it on the chin" for the northeast part of the country. I'm sorry, but I'm worried about my house, my family and what happens to us. This is scary. I'm looking around at things in my house and wondering if they will still be here in 72 hours. I am praying the thing just turns right and goes out to sea. Know that isn't really likely at this point but I can still hope.

I do understand...I went thru Hugo 22 years ago next month...it was scarey as all get out...only difference is we didn't have quite as much of a warning as it did that one last big wobble at us... it was supposed to hit Savannah...they even evacuated them...it was a wild ride...make sure you have your supplies, put anything valuable, important papers etc in a rubbermaid tub and seal it with duct tape...even the vent holes...if you can leave and they suggest you evac...do it...even if you drive due west...stay at a motel for a night or two and go back...all you can do is be as ready as you can be

Quoting VBgirl:
I don't want to "take it on the chin" for the northeast part of the country. I'm sorry, but I'm worried about my house, my family and what happens to us. This is scary. I'm looking around at things in my house and wondering if they will still be here in 72 hours. I am praying the thing just turns right and goes out to sea. Know that isn't really likely at this point but I can still hope.

I know the feeling, been through this before down here. Best thing you can do now is watch, wait, and get clear of this thing so that you and your family are not there when it comes in. If you guys DO choose to stay, please make sure you are prepared and you have a survival kit. Never know if ya might need it ;)

That said, the main thing to focus on is staying safe while it comes through, you can't worry about all the "what ifs" or about clean up yet, need to just worry about staying safe.

Quoting VBgirl:


Well go for it. I'll send you a flag to wave!

+1

GFS 00z running shows center right between banks and mainland at 42 hours

Quoting ackee:
TD#10 looks like a TS

I think so too.

If anyone is interested, I just did a blog on Irene and TD10. Check it out if you want.

Out for now. I might be back later.

Quoting CloudGatherer:
Your biggest fear is that a national catastrophe to the north will lull the southeast into complacence?

How about a little perspective, friend? If you want to take counsel of your fears, run a surge simulation for the NY/NJ coastline.

It's just surreal sometimes how tough this is to get across. Irene is globally bad news.

I think the point is that we know its going to be bad for NC on up the east coast, but I already know a lot of people who are just like "Oh, it'll turn north and hit NC, nothing to worry about here" so they won't prepare properly, or leave when the next Hugo comes knocking on our door. Trust me it's nothing against you guys up north. You guys have my prayers and stay safe.

Quoting TexasGulf:
Irene's storm surge may be a LOT more damaging than Rita's or Ike's... or possibly even Katrina's.

Those 3 hurricanes basically came directly at the shoreline or at only a slight angle to it. The storm surge in Ike was largely confined to Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston, High Island and Port Arthur areas of Texas. Other than Galveston, these are not heavily populated areas.

Hurricane Rita's surge basically wiped Cameron, Louisiana and a few smaller towns off the map. The surge hit a few very small communities and a lot of swamp land.

Katrina's surge (if not for the levee failures in New Orleans) would have wiped Gulfport & Waveland Mississippi and Venice, Louisiana off the map and heavily damaged Biloxi. However... the damage in all three of these was confined to a relatively small area of the coast, perhaps a 50-mile stretch that sustained the heaviest storm surge.

Irene is coming in parallel to the East Coast. The worst of the storm surge, rather than being confined to a small stretch, will roll right up the coast by 100-200 miles or so as Irene passes. Anyone along the coastal areas who's home isn't at least 20-feet above sea level out to consider leaving and going West for the day. This storm surge will hit quickly. Within an hour or less, the water can rise by 10-15 feet. Your house may be fine now, but 10-minutes later you're up to your chest in water in the living room and the house is coming apart.

If you live in a low lying coastal area... maybe call and stay with friends or relatives 30-40 miles inland for the day. If you live in the city and don't have transportation, maybe call a friend that lives in a taller, sturdy building at a higher elevation and ask if you can spend the day & night there. Just don't stay put in a low lying area.

Katrina DID wipe Waveland off the map. You can add Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis to the obliteration list as well. The cites were left flattened. Everywhere from Waveland to Gulfport to Pascagoula was flattened along the beach. Closer to the eye, the storm surge came 3 to 4 miles inland.

I just thought I'd point that out. I agree with your point about how Irene's surge will affect a much large area because of it's direction. Thankfully, she shouldn't have a 30 foot storm surge like some along the MS coast had.

Quoting j2008:

Yea they did or the NHC wouldnt have her still at 115.

Show me one run that shows 100 mph winds, just one and I'll concede. Trust me I've been watching all day there hasn't been any. The only reason the NHC hasn't dropped it down is because of 2 things. 1. If they drop it down to "only" a Cat 1/2 less people will think it's a dangerous storm and will ignore evacuations/warnings from their local authorities and 2. The pressure represents a low-end Category 4 hurricane and the NHC knows eventually the winds will catch up.

Quoting thewindman:
GFS 00z running shows center right between banks and mainland at 42 hours

Latest sat loop seems to indicate a slight jog to the east. Don't think its indicative of a new overall motion though probably will resume a due north motion soon.

Quoting ackee:
TD#10 looks like a TS

LLC is displaced a degree east from the convection.

Want to know the actual track of Irene....... well here it is.......

Quoting VBgirl:


Well go for it. I'll send you a flag to wave!

***Rant commencing***
Sorry, just so sick of the selfishness I've seen way too much of over the years. I rarely comment, but that got my goat (yeah, I'm old, so I have a goat). I thought I was pointing out nicely that maybe you should prioritize but since that didn't work I may as well also bring up that you went on to mention the "things" in your house & how they might not be there in 72 hours. Uhm, there might be way worse things happening in 72 hours than you losing your "things".

***rant ceasing*** (my ex-husband, who reads this blog, is probably shocked it was that short)

Quoting IMA:


Sorry, but can't help but notice that you put "house" before family. Not that any of us can control this sort of thing, but if we could the I'd be willing to: 1) put my family first; 2) put the country's greater good ahead of my own

well when i served my country in the Navy...i had to put my family last...it was not a list of most valuable first, it was what she was looking at as she was typing...with the time of day...i bet her family is all in bed...human trait is to list what the eyes see first...

Quoting NCSCguy:
If only my boss would close our job... Im just worried about heading home at 11pm tomorrow night, could be windy.

Irene's expected landfall in North Carolina isn't projected to happen until 8:00am or 10:00am on Saturday. If you leave work on Friday night at 11:00pm... you shouldn't have much to worry about. 9-10 hours before landfall, the winds will probably be steady around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40mph maximum with some heavy rain, but no flooding yet. If you go straight home, driving shouldn't be too bad at that point. Just don't delay in going home... and pack a few survival supplies, rain poncho, flashlight, etc... in your truck just in case.

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Show me one run that shows 100 mph winds, just one and I'll concede. Trust me I've been watching all day there hasn't been any. The only reason the NHC hasn't dropped it down is because of 2 things. 1. If they drop it down to "only" a Cat 1/2 less people will think it's a dangerous storm and will ignore evacuations/warnings from their local authorities and 2. The pressure represents a low-end Category 4 hurricane and the NHC knows eventually the winds will catch up.

The winds may not necessarily catch up, but I do agree with number 1, certainly it could cause people (and emergency management for that matter) to change their plans. Then if the thing did intensify they would have no time......

You can't just blame a hurricanes lack of organization on dry air just because shear is fairly tame and water is warm. Have you guys ever thought that there is a reason why after years of intense schooling meteorologists have a hard time understanding changes in structure and intensity of hurricanes?

Irene is not suffering from dry air right now, hurricanes go through structural changes, and I'm sure there's something going on with with thermodynamics in Irene that we scientists don't understand fully.

I know, some of you feel have eeeeverything figured but the NHC doesn't? Ok I give up on trying to help.

Quoting thelmores:
Want to know the actual track of Irene....... well here it is.......

That looks due North :-(

TRUST ME! This is a Perfect Storm! I have been completely astonished by the amount of things that have fallen into place that just makes the storm WORSE

So far this is what I have

1: We have two Blocking Highs that prevent the storm from going West into the gulf or East into the Atlantic

2: We have a Low Trough moving in from the West that keeps the storm moving north and even North West on the track north of NC

3: The storm is making Landfall in the NE at HIGH tide

4: The storm is making Landfall during Astronomical HIGH Tide and so the surge will be 1-2 foot above normal

5: Some areas have seen extremely high amounts of precipitation over the past few weeks in the NE and now Irene could dump another 10 inches on them. This could cause major flooding in the NE

6: The ground is Saturated which could lead to more trees falling and tearing down power lines effectively knocking the power out across large areas.

7: The current track would put a large portion of the NE in the right front quadrant of the storm. The surge could be the nail in the coffin for the NE since out of every thing the storm could throw at them it is the surge. You expect the wind to decrease this far north but the storm's winds do decrease but the perfect scenario carries the storm surge up that sweeps over large areas of the coast.

Did I miss anything? Want to add anything to that?

Between 30 and 32 degrees latitude its whole wind field will be over water...in a few hours.

Quoting TexasGulf:


Irene's expected landfall in North Carolina isn't projected to happen until 8:00am or 10:00am on Saturday. If you leave work on Friday night at 11:00pm... you shouldn't have much to worry about. 9-10 hours before landfall, the winds will probably be steady around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40mph maximum with some heavy rain, but no flooding yet. If you go straight home, driving shouldn't be too bad at that point. Just don't delay in going home... and pack a few survival supplies, rain poncho, flashlight, etc... in your truck just in case.

if i am not mistaken...he is in Charleston SC with me...we are getting some bands now...flooding to commence starting before 6am with high tides...

Quoting IMA:

***Rant commencing***
Sorry, just so sick of the selfishness I've seen way too much of over the years. I rarely comment, but that got my goat (yeah, I'm old, so I have a goat). I thought I was pointing out nicely that maybe you should prioritize but since that didn't work I may as well also bring up that you went on to mention the "things" in your house & how they might not be there in 72 hours. Uhm, there might be way worse things happening in 72 hours than you losing your "things".

***rant ceasing*** (my ex-husband, who reads this blog, is probably shocked it was that short)

You are reading a vast amount of negativity into that simple post that I just didn't see. Better to be honest about your own feelings and fears than to project your unhappiness onto an innocent bystander. Let's all seek to understand the pain that people are going through rather than rush to judgment over the particular words they hurriedly tapped out. We are all hurting.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


if i am not mistaken...he is in Charleston SC with me...we are getting some bands now...flooding to commence starting before 6am with high tides...

You guys be careful. Won't be as bad there but you are certainly in for some nasty conditions. Flooding would be the main concern.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Katrina DID wipe Waveland off the map. You can add Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis to the obliteration list as well. The cites were left flattened. Everywhere from Waveland to Gulfport to Pascagoula was flattened along the beach. Closer to the eye, the storm surge came 3 to 4 miles inland.

I just thought I'd point that out. I agree with your point about how Irene's surge will affect a much large area because of it's direction. Thankfully, she shouldn't have a 30 foot storm surge like some along the MS coast had.

Was going to say about the same. But will add I live about 8 miles inland north of Pascagoula, and 12-14 river miles up the Pascagoula and Escatawpa rivers. There were houses about 3/4 of a mile from me that had water in them. The surge can and will travel up rivers and bays. This was a little over 40 miles from the eye.

Quoting Jedkins01:
You can't just blame a hurricanes lack of organization on dry air just because shear is fairly tame and water is warm. Have you guys ever thought that there is a reason why after years of intense schooling meteorologists have a hard time understanding changes in structure and intensity of hurricanes?

Irene is not suffering from dry air right now, hurricanes go through structural changes, and I'm sure there's something going on with with thermodynamics in Irene that we scientists don't understand fully.

I know, some of you have everything figured but the NHC doesn't? Ok I give up on trying to help.

No dry air?



No shear? Looks like about 20kts

I find it incredible how accurate the forecast has been so far. But i have yet to read something about this stalling and how this have affected her and what the huge size will mean impact size(was not following for hours). Will she now intensify rapidly and will she go more eastwards or is she on track? In the last frames what i can see is that she fights hard to stay on track and an eye has become very visible.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Seems like Irene consistently has a dry air slot. Now she has one to the north of her. Just another example of why she won't rapidly intensify. Gradual to steady strengthening is reasonable.

^^^

Quoting tiggeriffic:


if i am not mistaken...he is in Charleston SC with me...we are getting some bands now...flooding to commence starting before 6am with high tides...

Yup thats where I am. My concern is that they close the bridge over the Ashley river on 526 forcing me to take 61 all the way to Summerville before getting on 26 back to North Charleston.

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Show me one run that shows 100 mph winds, just one and I'll concede. Trust me I've been watching all day there hasn't been any. The only reason the NHC hasn't dropped it down is because of 2 things. 1. If they drop it down to "only" a Cat 1/2 less people will think it's a dangerous storm and will ignore evacuations/warnings from their local authorities and 2. The pressure represents a low-end Category 4 hurricane and the NHC knows eventually the winds will catch up.

This is the last update from today. AL, 09, 2011082600, , BEST, 0, 277N, 774W, 100, 946, HU, The winds are in knots, 100KNTS = 115MPH.

Quoting TexasMariner:



You guys be careful. Won't be as bad there but you are certainly in for some nasty conditions. Flooding would be the main concern.

yeah...astronomical high tides for an extra 2 ft. Down town floods with a regular high in some places. add in rain, wind and upto 8 ft high waves at the beach there may not be a beach come sat/sun... we won't get near what up north is getting, but the season isn't over is what is scaring me the most

Quoting AusTxWthrGrl:


You are reading a vast amount of negativity into that simple post that I just didn't see. Better to be honest about your own feelings and fears than to project your unhappiness onto an innocent bystander. Let's all seek to understand the pain that people are going through rather than rush to judgment over the particular words they hurriedly tapped out. We are all hurting.

I typically don't do this, but bravo for your comment.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON MINA (NANMADOL)
11:00 AM PhST August 26 2011
=====================================

Typhoon "MINA" has intensified further and seriously threatens Northern Luzon Area.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Mina (Nanmadol) located at 16.9°N 123.7°E or 150 km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving slowly, expected to move northwest at 4 knots.

Signal Warnings
=============

Signal Warning #3
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Island

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Northern Aurora
2. Quirino
3. Ifugao
4. Mt. Province
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. Batanes Group of Island

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Rest of Aurora
2. Nueva Vizcaya
3. Benguet
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Ilocos Norte
6. Abra

Additional Information
======================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals, Southern Luzon and Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.M. today and hourly updates.

Thanks for this graphic. Nice to have the actualities to override speculation.

Quoting thelmores:
Want to know the actual track of Irene....... well here it is.......

Quoting NCSCguy:
Yup thats where I am. My concern is that they close the bridge over the Ashley river on 526 forcing me to take 61 all the way to Summerville before getting on 26 back to North Charleston.

there is usually a warning...around 30-60 minutes... should give you time to pop back over if it happens.

Quoting IMA:

***Rant commencing***
Sorry, just so sick of the selfishness I've seen way too much of over the years. I rarely comment, but that got my goat (yeah, I'm old, so I have a goat). I thought I was pointing out nicely that maybe you should prioritize but since that didn't work I may as well also bring up that you went on to mention the "things" in your house & how they might not be there in 72 hours. Uhm, there might be way worse things happening in 72 hours than you losing your "things".

***rant ceasing*** (my ex-husband, who reads this blog, is probably shocked it was that short)

Not that I owe you any explanation but my family will be safe if it's any concern of yours since we live in the south and we should just suck it up for the good of the country because the northeast is just too valuable. My family...including my animals, are leaving our home in the morning. Have you ever had to leave your home and not know if it was going to be there when you get back? Until you do, don't tell those of us who are in this position, it's better it happens to us than to somebody else because they are more valuable to the county as a whole.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


yeah...astronomical high tides for an extra 2 ft. Down town floods with a regular high in some places. add in rain, wind and upto 8 ft high waves at the beach there may not be a beach come sat/sun... we won't get near what up north is getting, but the season isn't over is what is scaring me the most

I wouldn't be too worried about another east coast storm. Really took a unique set of circumstance for this one and once the fronts really get going here in the next two weeks it will be alot harder for this situation to repeat itself.

Quoting Jedkins01:
You can't just blame a hurricanes lack of organization on dry air just because shear is fairly tame and water is warm. Have you guys ever thought that there is a reason why after years of intense schooling meteorologists have a hard time understanding changes in structure and intensity of hurricanes?

Irene is not suffering from dry air right now, hurricanes go through structural changes, and I'm sure there's something going on with with thermodynamics in Irene that we scientists don't understand fully.

I know, some of you feel have eeeeverything figured but the NHC doesn't? Ok I give up on trying to help.

The reasons why she isn't perfectly organized are pretty evident. Dry air situated over the Florida landmass, the influence of increasing SW-erly shear associated with the digging shortwave trough, and a particularly long EWRC that has left the southern and western portions of her eyewall open and exposed to these conditions for 36 hours.

Quoting wolftribe2009:
TRUST ME! This is a Perfect Storm!
Did I miss anything? Want to add anything to that?

Don't forget that the general shape of the coastline all along the expected path is a series of "C" shapes (Morehead City, NC area) and "V" shapes (New Jersey/Long Island Intersection) that will trap the water as the wind directs it into literal dead ends. Unlike an east coast Florida hit where the coast is more convex than concave.

I keep posting and sending messages to friends in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to pay serious attention to this, but I don't know if they get it. Isabel wreaked havoc where my parents lived in Richmond due to the ground saturation and giant trees with their leaves still on. They were like green sails.

Quoting atmosweather:


The reasons why she isn't perfectly organized are pretty evident. Dry air situated over the Florida landmass, the influence of increasing SW-erly shear associated with the digging shortwave trough, and a particularly long EWRC that has left the southern and western portions of her eyewall open and exposed to these conditions for 36 hours.

Yep.

The eye wall replacement cycle has taken even longer than normal because of the dry air entrainment disrupting the core.

Quoting MississippiWx:


No dry air?



No shear? Looks like about 20kts

I said relatively tame shear, enough for it to handle, and nope dry air is not a big deal, you always get dry sinking air on the west side of hurricanes, that doesn't mean Irene is suffering from dry air, that's faulty logic.

Like I said, I give up.

Memo to Irene: Keep ingesting that tasty dry air!

Oh, and feel free to head northeast.

Quoting VBgirl:


Not that I owe you any explanation but my family will be safe if it's any concern of yours since we live in the south and we should just suck it up for the good of the country because the northeast is just too valuable. My family...including my animals, are leaving our home in the morning. Have you ever had to leave your home and not know if it was going to be there when you get back? Until you do, don't tell those of us who are in this position, it's better it happens to us than to somebody else because they are more valuable to the county as a whole.

That's why we have a handy dandy ignore button. When someone pops off I find its best just to hide the comment.

Glad to hear you are getting out of the way of it though :) Best of luck on getting everything you can out of the house.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


there is usually a warning...around 30-60 minutes... should give you time to pop back over if it happens.

Is the warning on tv or radio? We have tv's so im going to try to keep them on local channels, normally it has to be news or sports but i think i can make an exception for this.

Quoting kaiden:


Was going to say about the same. But will add I live about 8 miles inland north of Pascagoula, and 12-14 river miles up the Pascagoula and Escatawpa rivers. There were houses about 3/4 of a mile from me that had water in them. The surge can and will travel up rivers and bays. This was a little over 40 miles from the eye.

Yes, storm surges are bad about reversing the flow of rivers. That certainly results in bad flooding upstream.