Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.
Figure 1. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. A surge rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.
Wind damage
I don't think Irene is going to do a lot of wind damage to the mid-Atlantic states, since the eye of the storm will be just offshore, and the I-95 corridor from Virginia to New Jersey will be on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. The current wind distribution of Irene (Figure 1) shows almost all of the hurricane's winds are on the right side of the storm, and by the time the storm reaches Virginia, there will be likely be no hurricane-force winds on the left side of Irene. Sustained winds should stay below 74 mph (hurricane force), and wind damage will be similar to that wrought be some of the strongest Nor'easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City. Since Irene will be steadily weakening as it approaches its second landfall on Long Island, I give a 50% chance that no mainland U.S. surface station in New England will record sustained hurricane-force winds. I do think it likely that one or more of the offshore islands--Block Island, Nantucket, and Marthas Vinyard--will get Category 1 hurricane winds. Though the wind damage to buildings will be similar to what the Northeast has seen during some of the more severe nor'easters of the past 20 years, tree damage will be much worse. The trees are in full leaf during hurricane season, and catch the wind much more readily than during the winter. Tree damage will very heavy, and we can expect trees in regions with saturated soils will fall over in high winds onto power lines. Irene is likely to cause one of the top-five most widespread power outages in American history from a storm. The record power outage from a Northeast storm was probably the ten million people that lost power during the great Blizzard of 1993. I don't think Irene's power outages will be quite that extensive, but several million people will likely lose power.
Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In addition to storm surge, flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are the main threats. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 8" to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. New Jersey has had its 6th wettest August on record, with most of that rain falling in the past two weeks. Expect major river flooding throughout New Jersey the Delmarva Peninsula, and regions near New York City, as Irene's rains run off the saturated soils directly into the rivers. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. I don't think flooding from heavy rains will be a huge concern in North Carolina, which is under moderate to severe drought. Irene's rains are likely to do some good in Southeast Virginia, where a fire triggered by lightning from a thunderstorm on August 4 sparked a fire in the Dismal Swamp that is burning out of control. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday August 31, as issued by NOAA/HPC.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will there, and I will be available if my schedule permits. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and has sent out their relief trailer and crew to North Carolina. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.
Jeff Masters
A shot of the Palm Trees at Nassau, Bahamas being thrashed by high winds during Irene's closest approach !
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (
ktbahamas)
Utility pole with street light snapped in half by Irene's winds on a busy street in New Providence.
Portlight deploying to North Carolina
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"Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated!"
Just ask this brave little Buoy South of Wilmington:
Buoy 41013
In addition to the waves, the wind is now sustained at near 40 knots with gusts near 50, and best I can tell, the center's still over 100 miles away.
I think it is too late to replace eyewall to be any more then cat 1 when she meets land .
That is bad enough don;t you guys think . still has plenty of moiture to work with and can still create a mess.
I like the duct tape thing;it is very southern ;of corse about 60%of the things we have in this country is southern idea's. one of them most people could not live without and that is air conditioning ,you can thank a doc from florida for that one .you will find duct tape anywhere from nascar racer to now the door of your home to prevent storm surge .improvise and overcome uurah!!
dew
Streaming Live by Ustream
Full size image (800pix wide) at my WU blog.
I'm living in a fantasy for saying that Bush and Reagan were on working vacations at their ranches, that is my historical interpretation so deal with it. And yes...Irene is moving pretty much due North.
FOOL
Irene has risen a few more millibars in pressure and convection in the core is weak. Outflow is improving slightly in the SW quad, but dry air will remain in her circulation no matter what due to her size. We are hoping for continued weakening right up until landfall, but as noted in my blog this morning, the GFDL and HWRF, as well as all of the intensity models really, show a weakening Irene for the first 12 hours today, and then strengthening between the 12 and 24 hour period, right at landfall. The global models showing a deepening pressure field agree with this, so we may see Irene make a small comeback right at landfall, perhaps trying to get those winds to match her low pressure, which supports a Cat 3 hurricane.
Wake and Durham are now under a High Wind Advisory, which may be upgraded to a High Wind Warning.
FINALLY! SOMEBODY WITH COMMON SENSE!!!
Great hints -- I regularly take down and bag some art work my mother did before she died, and most of our pictures are in sealed plastic containers. That way don't even have to think about those.
you may if you want but he is still a fool if he thinks that becuase the media prepares for the worst to save lives is wrong then so be it. Id rather be worried and alive that sitting back in my lazy chair and die
Keep doom casting if that makes you feel better.
~90knots +- 5 from radar radial velocity
yeah...we were hit with some in charleston...im in town so didn't get any good pics like that...but saw the black flying at me when i was outside...it was wicked to say the least...not hitting us head on but the Hugo flashbacks were well...yeah...
I live in Massachusetts and the folks I've seen today are having trouble getting what the storm will do. The last couple of hurricanes petered out as they approached New England and we have hurricanes so rarely that "Category 1" or "Category 2" have no visceral meaning.
I think a forecast that said something like "maximum of 85 mph winds for 4 - 6 hours" would be far more understandable in regions where hurricanes are relatively rare and might speed up preparations.
Every time Stephine Abrams spoke she used the word
"CATASTROPHIC"!!!!!
later
:P
Intensification is the hardest to forecast.
imposter
Well said! I don't envy the media at all! In these situations. Damned if they do! Damned if they don't
Not DOOM casting, being prepared. I barely survived with my life in Katrina. Was airlifted from a helicopter from my home. Do not talk to me about underestimating a storm or being prepared and warned.
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So Levi, this weakening was predicted by the models the whole time?
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