Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:14 GMT le 26 août 2011

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Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.


Figure 1. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. A surge rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Wind damage
I don't think Irene is going to do a lot of wind damage to the mid-Atlantic states, since the eye of the storm will be just offshore, and the I-95 corridor from Virginia to New Jersey will be on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. The current wind distribution of Irene (Figure 1) shows almost all of the hurricane's winds are on the right side of the storm, and by the time the storm reaches Virginia, there will be likely be no hurricane-force winds on the left side of Irene. Sustained winds should stay below 74 mph (hurricane force), and wind damage will be similar to that wrought be some of the strongest Nor'easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City. Since Irene will be steadily weakening as it approaches its second landfall on Long Island, I give a 50% chance that no mainland U.S. surface station in New England will record sustained hurricane-force winds. I do think it likely that one or more of the offshore islands--Block Island, Nantucket, and Marthas Vinyard--will get Category 1 hurricane winds. Though the wind damage to buildings will be similar to what the Northeast has seen during some of the more severe nor'easters of the past 20 years, tree damage will be much worse. The trees are in full leaf during hurricane season, and catch the wind much more readily than during the winter. Tree damage will very heavy, and we can expect trees in regions with saturated soils will fall over in high winds onto power lines. Irene is likely to cause one of the top-five most widespread power outages in American history from a storm. The record power outage from a Northeast storm was probably the ten million people that lost power during the great Blizzard of 1993. I don't think Irene's power outages will be quite that extensive, but several million people will likely lose power.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In addition to storm surge, flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are the main threats. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 8" to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. New Jersey has had its 6th wettest August on record, with most of that rain falling in the past two weeks. Expect major river flooding throughout New Jersey the Delmarva Peninsula, and regions near New York City, as Irene's rains run off the saturated soils directly into the rivers. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. I don't think flooding from heavy rains will be a huge concern in North Carolina, which is under moderate to severe drought. Irene's rains are likely to do some good in Southeast Virginia, where a fire triggered by lightning from a thunderstorm on August 4 sparked a fire in the Dismal Swamp that is burning out of control. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday August 31, as issued by NOAA/HPC.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will there, and I will be available if my schedule permits. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and has sent out their relief trailer and crew to North Carolina. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Irene's Wrath ! (MikeTheiss)
A shot of the Palm Trees at Nassau, Bahamas being thrashed by high winds during Irene's closest approach !
Hurricane Irene's Wrath !
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)
Utility pole with street light snapped in half by Irene's winds on a busy street in New Providence.
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Irene Response (presslord)
Portlight deploying to North Carolina
Irene Response

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1227. Walnut
Quoting SCwannabe:


She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.
Cantore doesn't decide where to go - the mets at TWC make the assignments. He is just operating as an onsite reporter. Is he overly dramatic? Maybe - but last night Irene looked to put a real hurting on NYC - and still may do so. People take him seriously.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 185
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





Yes, but that's not the image I remember from Ike:

This is...
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Quoting HurricaneHAM:


Where do you see this warning? I'm in Wake Forest/Raleigh and I'm seeing this on NWS--20 to 40mph wind.


I have the same thing:

A WIND ADVISORY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1225 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO BRING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

.STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT...AND EASTERN SANDHILLS OF NC ON
SATURDAY.

NCZ008>010-025-026-041-077-088-270400-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WI.Y.0006.110827T1000Z-110828T0400Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE-HARNE TT-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...
DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH...LILLINGTON...FAYET TEVILLE
1225 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SANDHILLS OF
NC...FROM FAYETTEVILLE AND LILLINGTON...TO RALEIGH AND
DURHAM...TO LOUISBURG AND OXFORD...TO HENDERSON AND WARRENTON.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

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Elsewhere on the planet.....

Tropical storm Talas is taking the dry air bullet for Super Typhoon Nanmadol. The reward for Talas? Dancing to a Fujiwara beat and a one sided dinner for two a couple of days ahead.

Nanmadol (or Mina as she SHOULD be called right now should hopefully recurve and miss Japan completely about a week from now... Maybe the Fujiwara will pull Mina East a bit... But luck's not been on their side and it's not been that kind of year for Japan has it?

Keep a close eye on this Super system.

Link
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1223. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you sure about that


It takes a lot of air to fill up a 950mb low that is 800 miles wide. Baroclinic influence also looks favorable to keep the storm from weakening quite as rapidly as usual.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Even mets are turning on the media hype...



According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "The notion of a storm surge to 11 feet in New York City is unfounded."
"This is not a category 3 or 4 hurricane moving in from the southeast at northern New Jersey, but rather a category 1 or 2 storm that will be weakening moving northward," Sosnowski added.
The storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above normal, with parts of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Long Island enduring a 3- to 6-foot surge.
Further worsening the situation will be pounding waves and tides that are astronomically higher due to Sunday's new moon.
It is not just the beaches that line the Atlantic Ocean that are bracing for coastal flooding, but also neighboring bays and sounds.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect that these smaller inlets will experience an even greater rise in water than the nearby Atlantic beaches.

This is not the day after tomorrow.


no, but the storm will reach New York on Sunday and that IS the day after tomorrow. What say you now???!!
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1221. barbamz
Recons: Kermit just startet from Tampa to join AF-308.
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1220. Patrap
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The good thing about Irene is that the worst of her storm surge is going to move parallel to the coastline. If she moves a little farther west and some south facing beaches get her eastern eye wall, it won't be pretty. Just hoping that by the time she reaches Long Island and places in that region that her storm surge will have lost some steam.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Unless it turns SHARP NE all the sudden, Irene will landfall between SC/NC and Morehead City.


I hope Grandpa bailed from Atlantic Beach.

Ocracoke Island NC Fri 8.26.11 4pmimg src="Photobucket">
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1216. Dennis8
NEW YORK (AP) — Nearly 300,000 people were ordered Friday to evacuate flood-prone areas and subways, buses and trains prepared to shut down a day later as Hurricane Irene steamed toward New York, the most powerful storm to target the city in decades.

It was the first time the nation's largest city was evacuated. And never before has the entire mass transit system been shuttered because of a storm. Despite the unknowns of how the city would react, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he was confident people would get out of the storm's way.

"Waiting until the last minute is not a smart thing to do," Bloomberg said. "This is life-threatening."
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Quoting SCwannabe:


She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.


I am going with Levi. Hurricane all the way to New England.
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1214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


She will be a hurricane right up to New England.
are you sure about that
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
More Darwin Candidates:

*Apologies if this has already been posted, busy board

* Commercial TV, so you get a small commercial at first

http://www.wesh.com/r-video/28983987/detail.html
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1212. Patrap
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Quoting Gorty:


Because they FINALLY realize that with the huge wind field, sooo many people are threatened with downed trees and power lines.


The huge wind field will be there regardless.
Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1210. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shear it to pieces.



That one, been watching the area since I got my power back, a spawn of an ULL, the same one that was shearing 98L.
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Quoting thelmores:
Shear and dry air continues to pummel Irene's core......

To me, I don't see any way Irene can organize itself and spin out the dry air enough to re-obtain Major status....

I fully expect Irene to make landfall as a strong Cat 2 storm. But because of the tremendous size of Irene, this STILL will be a record breaking storm in several area's!

I wish those in harms way the best of luck!

Here is an image (water vapor) which shows Irene allowing dry air to entrain into the core.......



She really sucked in alot of dry air...wow. I would doubt if it maintains Hurricane status all the way to NYC. I think the NHC will keep it a Hurricane with all the hype though so people won't let their guard. Cantore just can't seem to get it right anymore.
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1208. Gorty
Quoting junie1:
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible


Because they FINALLY realize that with the huge wind field, sooo many people are threatened with downed trees and power lines.
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Live video of Irene from the International Space Station coming up.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shear it to pieces.



The only way I see anything more than a TD from 91L is if it gets left behind by the trough, which is unlikely.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another picture. This is why this storm should be taken VERY seriously.


If it's anything like that, then this storm would be once in a lifetime.
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Pressure is rising which is good news. We all hope that trend continues. I think the main threat from Irene is the heavy rain over an already soaked northeast. North of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia Irene will resemble a very strong and very wet noreaster.

Epic flooding of rivers is a real danger. But I don't think tides and wind north of Virginia will be nearly as bad as was feared.
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1203. 900MB
Despite potential dry air intrusion from the NW, the Funktop, Rainbow, IR presentations are getting more organized.
Anyone have latest recon data?
Member Since: 11 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
I see they labeled the area northeast of PR 91L. It was interesting how it formed. I'm not sure if it formed from a piece of energy that split off from 98L or from energy associated with an upper level low that has been spinning in the area for days.

Regardless, it's going to have a really hard time developing with Irene's outflow shearing it to pieces.

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Quoting junie1:
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible


Wouldn't saying it looks horrible be a good thing?
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I'm estimating this Buoy is currently 150 to 200 miles WNW of Irene's center.

Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:





Another picture. This is why this storm should be taken VERY seriously.
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1198. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:


I agree, the dry air is killing her very slowly. She has a big old core though, so I expect a hurricane at landfall.


She will be a hurricane right up to New England.
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1197. bwat
The way its looking now, is the center of Irene going to pass over, just to the east, or just to the west of the Albemarle Sound? I know any input is an opinion, I will listen to NHC for official forecast. But the track mentioned about is going to make a HUGE difference on the impact I recieve here at home.
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1196. junie1
you would think more ppl would be happy that the storm isnt getting stronger than saying it looks horrible
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Quoting IceCoast:


Indeed. I imagine forecasting Ice accumulation in specific areas is very difficult. The amount we saw in 2008 takes a pretty special setup with the Temperatures. It was one of the most beautiful things i've ever witnessed when i woke up in the morning, but I was also without power for over two weeks.


I hate to even try to compare the two--but personally, I would rather be out of power after a hurricane than out of power in the FREEZING weather of an ice storm.
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1194. Levi32
Realistically the difference between a 105mph storm and a 115mph storm here is almost nil. Irene is going to have roughly the same impacts on the eastern seaboard regardless of what she does tonight. It's fine-tuning of forecasting right now. I'm not moving from 115mph yet simply because there is still a chance for some reorganization, and I've had that forecast for a while. That said, it is hard to get a big one like Irene to re-tighten. Igor had this problem and never recovered. The really massive storms like this won't stay very strong unless they are in the Caribbean. It's impossible for them not to entrain lots of dry air anywhere else.
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Can see the dry air on RGB really well....

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1192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE IS
BECOMING MORE VISIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER, AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA FROM NOAA AND THE US AIR FORCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE REDUCED TO 90 KNOTS OR 170 KM/H. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY
DEPICTS DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF IRENE WHICH POSSIBLY
EXPLAINS WHY THE HURRICANE HASN'T INTENSIFIED. IRENE IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H).

B. PROGNOSTIC

IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AT WHICH TIME THE STORM WILL BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THEREAFTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
TWO FACTORS IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION WITH LAND
WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF IRENE AS IT MOVES ALONG
OR VERY NEAR THE US EAST COAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER,
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT
BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.

THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK.
DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM
SURGE THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACT COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES
CLOSE TO IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
26/18Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50
27/06Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50
27/18Z 250 200 120 170 120 100 50 75 80 80 50 50
28/06Z 260 220 120 150 120 120 50 75 50 50 15 35
28/18Z 270 220 120 130 120 120 75 60 30 30 10 10
29/06Z 270 250 120 115 120 120 75 0 10 5 0 0
29/18Z 270 250 100 85 30 25 10 15 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/06Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END HATT/COUTURIER/FOGARTY
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Look at the SST maps.

Look at her projected path.

The puffs of convection come from Hot SST's.

Her surge and windfield is plowing the fresh hot Gulf Stream into every bay up the east coast.

That water is almost as warm as the Gulf itself until you pass the Outer Banks.

The models are seeing this.


Could be, but my understanding is that because hurricanes are so turbulent and mix up water from the colder depths, the net result is cooler water.

Second, the job of a hurricane is to suck the heat out of the top 300 feet of water or so, and send it packing way high aloft above the troposphere.

Third, blowing air causes water to cool through evaporation.

I'm not disagreeing but I'm seeing increased current velocity, not warmer water temperatures, such as on the RTOFS web page.
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Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting Levi32:


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.


I agree, the dry air is killing her very slowly. She has a big old core though, so I expect a hurricane at landfall.
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Quoting Levi32:


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.


Yep...Mentioned that earlier. She is more or less maintaining intensity as she isn't firing up any intense cold cloud tops.
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Link

Cape Hatteras on a beautiful day taken in 2009. I can't even begin to imagine what this storm is going to feel like.
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1185. LargoFl
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:



thanks for posting that pic, way too many people think a cat 1 or 2 isnt all that bad....it IS
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Unless it turns SHARP NE all the sudden, Irene will landfall between SC/NC and Morehead City.


Is that on track or farther west than the models said?
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Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1182. Gorty
Looks like a clear NNE motion to me.
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1181. Levi32
Quoting asgolfr999:
Levi. Check 4km IR Arent the cloud tops cooling again?


I see almost nothing colder than -70C right now. It's kind of pathetic actually lol.
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For anybody doubting what a Category 2 hurricane can do:

Ike, 2008:



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Levi. Check 4km IR Arent the cloud tops cooling again?

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?r es=4km&banner=uhmet&chnl=ir&domain=asb&size=large& period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goeseast&overlay =off&animtype=flash
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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