Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Is it the storm that will be crazy or you?? Do you realize when the storm arrives those conditions will last 18-21 hours? Are you really ready for that? I hope you'll reconsider your decision. No one is going to help you out once this gets rolling.
link???
Ocean - All the pictures that we posted were located very near the beach.
ha ha you got mail back...
portlight...how do i email them to myself on wunderblog lol...look, i just learned last week how to get a link to stick roflmbo
http://www.surfchex.com/index.php
10:14 PM 73.4 °F - 73.4 °F 100% 29.38 in 1.2 mi NNE 36.8 mph 57.5 mph 0.33 in Rain Heavy Rain
Appears like we can narrow down the landfall point to between the Morehead City/Beaufort/Cape Lookout area and Cape Hatteras. But the exact area where she crosses the coastline is almost irrelevant with the huge swath of tropical storm and hurricane force winds.
Here's your sign....(or body bag)
Where are you near
The thing is, you just don't know which will make it and which won't. Storm surge from Dennis came from the north, the bay side, and took out homes that survived Ivan on Pensacola Beach. And speaking of Ivan, surge took out the interstate bridge, houses on Bayou Chico, and houses at the far north end of Escambia Bay, AFTER crossing the island.
Check the maps and you'll see what I am talking about.
surge forecast
10:20 PM 80.6 °F 87.1 °F 77.0 °F 89% 29.62 in 1.8 mi ESE 31.1 mph 63.3 mph 0.73 in Rain Light Rain
There were two people on the pier for a brief amount of time. Here's some info about the pier:
Topsail Island's first ocean pier, the Surf City Pier, was originally built in 1948. It has been owned and operated by the Lore family since 1973. Though it has weathered many storms (some better than others), Hurricane Fran destroyed it in 1996. It was totally rebuilt and reopened in August of 1997, looking much like it does today including a few additions. The pier is 937 feet long with a 40-foot octagon at the end.
I can't find any info as to it's height, but 20-25' is the common height. Betcha $20 the two people you saw are either the owners or operators of the pier walking out to check something.
what i got today wasnt a fine mist...it rained so hard it hurt as i had to run thru it and that was a baby feeder band
I would say no, because the wind maximum with Irene is fairly wide, and with the eye almost nonexistent, there isn't a small, well-defined region of highest winds, and they extend for quite a ways away from the center. It is tracking slightly east of the forecast track, but your area near the outer banks is not off the hook. You're still going to have to deal with several inches of rain no matter what.
Did you figure out how to post images yet? Really curious to see your pictures.
Just a reminder but once an area starts to receive tropical storm force winds, all emergency services are shut down until after the storm has begun to wind down. You will be helpless if (God forbid) something happens and you need assistance. Make smart decisions.
very strong words...ill be fine i think..im with three other storm fanatics
If I have the location right it looks on the satellite like it may be getting the worst of the wind and surge right now and it is taking it pretty well so far. Must be a well built pier!
Do you think it will get worse there?
You know, if I owned it, I'd insure it. And tomorrow night would be soon enough to check it and file a claim.
NoVaForecaster, what's your forecast for our area?
Link please?
true, but Im feeling alot better now that I was 6 hours ago, weakening and east of track, loving it.
Link
CNN and others news people stayed there after they got trapped on the island.
video
Man Survives Hurricane Ivan in Hurricane-Proof House
'Dome Home' weathers storm
Which beach because some, if not all, of the bridges are closed?
Looks like lower pressure readings on approach than last pass..but, i just got Google earth, so I don't know nada! 978mb far out last I saw.
Yeah..if you are talking about wrightsville beach or carolina Beach, the bridges are closed
i live in CA am this watching what am seeing on the cams on my laptop and was this saying that things gone way down hill tonight at NC
I was in Ike also, 290 & Tidwell. It was a bad storm even that far away from the coast. I got my power restored 3 weeks later. Thank goodness for generators and planning ahead.
That picture was Canal drive at Carolina Beach. It will flood during a bad rain storm.
http://s1209.photobucket.com/albums/cc390/maryalo vestigger/?action=view¤t=082611185529.jpg&ev t=user_media_share
ok...trying to copy the pic didn't work...hope this does
page not found
O.C Md. webcams.Should be a good view tomorrow.
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