Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Coordinates: 31.7667N 77.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.8 mb (~ 22.23 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,048 meters (~ 6,719 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 949.0 mb (~ 28.02 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 344° at 9 knots (From the NNW at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: 19.3°C (~ 66.7°F)
Dew Pt: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
You're wrong..I only see 1 pixel of red.
LOL!
Are you in Bolivar? I lost a home and business there.
Excellent quote
Bold items are Windspeed (kts), Gust (kts), and Waveheight at the buoy @ Frying Pan Shoals. This is 50 miles due south of Wilmington, NC.
RI FLAG (off)
RD FLAG (OFF)
WEAKENING FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
33.55n/76.9w forecast point
ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Link
I also had a home damaged on Tiki island...do we know each other?
No,,but I've friends in Galveston across from JSC.
Im in NOLA.
18Z GFS, 3days out...
Now, according to the model, that should be Jose.
Amazing what dry air can do.
Try SurfChex.com Some issues with it connecting to the server. They have a few other cams on the outer banks as well.
I love dry air!!!!
Stop being so pixy! There were 2 there a few minutes ago. Looks like it wants to come back a little. Looks a litle better than 1/2 hour ago.
Sorry for your loss in Katrina...
Thank you!
Link
Look at that cam, then tell yourself that Irene's centre is 175 miles away from there. Massive storm.
YES it willl
Cavitation? LOL!
As well for you ,,in IKE.
Calamity knows no borders'..
Yeah, just make me feel bad! lol.
7674u.com
The action doesn't end with Irene.
Last night the issue was pressure drop and winds not catching up. The general concensus was that the storm was using the drop (Energy?) to increase in size. Now that she is smaller, injected with dry air, and pressure is dropping will it make it easier for the wind speeds to correlate with pressure drop?
Pouring down rain, gusty, but still good for now.
15-20 mph sustained, 25-35 mph frequent gusts, and 40-50 mph infrequent gusts (in strong bands).
Well you get my drift. 240hrs is trend, not the end.
But 3 days out is the bomb. NHC track through here was almost exactly correct by Tuesday, with only slight modulations due to trocchoidal wobbling. I think we are getting better, slowly yes, but better. NHC will get its 7-day forecast eventually [though not, I expect, any time soon... lol]
What in the world happened to it?!
Not normal to see a tropical cyclone struggle like this near the Cape Verdes in late August.
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