Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Irene hits North Carolina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:37 GMT le 27 août 2011

+22

Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.

Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.

Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)

Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.

Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)

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801. Levi32 21:18 GMT le 27 août 2011
951.5mb at Duck Pier at 5pm EDT with 63mph winds gusting to 77mph. That's not even Irene's minimum pressure folks. She isn't even filling up with air yet. It's incredible. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

802. MoltenIce 21:18 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: What the heck? Wilma wasn't at 882 as a tropical storm... Wilma did have pressures around 980 hPa as a tropical storm prior to exploding to a monster. Member Since: 11 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

803. 996tt 21:19 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: how is grandma talking to you from the roof on her i phone which is soaking wet held in her hand texting all the while 75 mp-h wind gusts blowing into her face yet all this is done while not holding onto her roof but typing on a i phone unless she got the laptop or desktop on the roof with her wow either way kinda hard to believe tell grandma to hold on doing great all most over I think we should give people like this the benefit of the doubt and not call everyone a liar when perhaps we are missing some of the details. This is a silly weather blog, its not like they are keeping 911 operators from tending to others in need. Most of us posting on here apparently have plenty of spare time. Haha, I am just trying to catch my breathe before another set as that swell jacks my old arse up after about 2 hours. If you think they are FOS, maybe say nothing just on the off chance that they are truly someone in need. Member Since: 5 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

805. ConnecticutWXGuy 21:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
LOL just saw a thread on a forum titled "If emergency services don't respond, we sue!" referring to local officials stating that emergency services may not be able to respond to 911 calls during the height of the storm. I wonder if these people are going to prank call 911 just to see if they'll come, and try to sue if they don't? lol some people are too ignorant. Member Since: 17 novembre 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 521

806. nrtiwlnvragn 21:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
NOAA Page showing tide level, wind speed, gusts and pressure for coastal stations. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

807. Patrap 21:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
wwebcam oceancitymd.gov/northdivision Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

809. Patrap 21:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

810. txag91met 21:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: 951.5mb at Duck Pier at 5pm EDT with 63mph winds gusting to 77mph. That's not even Irene's minimum pressure folks. She isn't even filling up with air yet. It's incredible. The reason the wind speeds are not CAT 3 with that pressure is the gradient (dp/dx) is weak. Nashville is 1008 mb! Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 723

811. petewxwatcher 21:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
There is a note that the pressure at Duck Pier is running about 1.5 mb too low. However with 55 kt winds it implies a central pressure of 947 mb anyway. Member Since: 24 Mars 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392

812. presslord 21:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
the Portlight crew is headed east on 64 from rocky Mount....they will be in the area for a while...if you send me (WU mail) an address,name, etc., I'll be glad to see if they can check it out... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

813. Levi32 21:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
Last Observed Sample: 08/27/2011 17:06 (EDT) Barometric Pressure: 950.9 mb Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

814. violet312s 21:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
Beaufort was a mandatory evacuation county I believe. People were told that they would not get any help until after the storm has passed. No point putting more lives at risk to save those who did not heed to warnings to leave. Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 769

815. breald 21:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
If this is a dupe question please forgive me, it seems the blog ate my original post. With Irene taking a more inland track will that put Southern New England in a better position, or does it not matter because of her size? Thanks. Member Since: 28 mai 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

816. DocNDswamp 21:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
Irene pretty much on expected NNE track right along the seaboard... Interesting the NWD motion shift prior to landfall and into E NC, as appeared for a while last night would track closer to Hatteras... However, from what I recall, the GFS had indicated that temporary bend back to the left induced by combined approaching trof weakness / the orientation of Atlantic ridge building NW-ward simultaneously, holding firm... More or less ECMWF did same... Overall, the guidance from those two models has been excellent as usual when it counts most. Often the case, can note last several days the NHC has just split it's track between their narrow range. Also find amazing how the steering pattern projections send Irene far NEWD into northern latitudes / near polar regions within 3-4 days, higher up than many... If ever wanted to see a classic example of a tropical cyclone transporting heat from the tropics to the poles, and doing it quite literally, this is a good one! Safe wishes continue for all of you affected within Irene's wide swath. Member Since: 21 septembre 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4638

817. atmosweather 21:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: 951.5mb at Duck Pier at 5pm EDT with 63mph winds gusting to 77mph. That's not even Irene's minimum pressure folks. She isn't even filling up with air yet. It's incredible. I've seen everything in terms of following tropical systems...but that's absolutely unbelievable. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

818. DontAnnoyMe 21:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting IceCoast: An amazing system. Blog seems pretty slow for the First landfalling Hurricane since 08. Now that FL is safe, lots not interested. Don't see the usual ENC bloggers, prob. due to power outages. Thanx to folks like Levi, Pat, Neo, and the regular others who are keeping us informed. Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

819. Levi32 21:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting txag91met: The reason the wind speeds are not CAT 3 with that pressure is the gradient (dp/dx) is weak. Nashville is 1008 mb! Well that's only true at the core, because she hasn't really had a core since yesterday, but if she were to suddenly develop an eye again, those Cat 3 winds would likely show up. What Irene really has is an 80-mile thick wind maximum, like a very broad, weak eyewall for a storm with a pressure of 950mb. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

820. Levi32 21:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting atmosweather: I've seen everything in terms of following tropical systems...but that's absolutely unbelievable. 950.9mb now and my jaw is dropping at how this storm refuses to fill up. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

821. weatherh98 21:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
951, isnt tht belowthe pressure according to he nhc Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076

822. txag91met 21:26 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: Well that's only true at the core, because she hasn't really had a core since yesterday, but if she were to suddenly develop an eye again, those Cat 3 winds would likely show up. What Irene really has is an 80-mile thick wind maximum, like a very broad, weak eyewall for a storm with a pressure of 950mb. I don't see that happening...water temps don't support a CAT 3 now...upper 70s off VA coast. I do see gusts to 70 mph in spots (NYC)...just a HUGE system. Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 723

823. treehuggingsister 21:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting violet312s: Beaufort was a mandatory evacuation county I believe. People were told that they would not get any help until after the storm has passed. No point putting more lives at risk to save those who did not heed to warnings to leave. Amen to THAT. If you DON'T listen when they come banging and TELL YOU TO LEAVE you know you live in a flood prone/canseethewaterfromyourhouse, then it's like the Preacher tells Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles: "Son, you're on your own." If I was THAT sheriff or volunteer's wife, I don't him DEAD because you're a dumbass. Member Since: 18 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188

824. weatherh98 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: 950.9mb now and my jaw is dropping at how this storm refuses to fill up. this is crazy it prolly wont weaken to much with pressure like this Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6076

825. Patrap 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting presslord: the Portlight crew is headed east on 64 from rocky Mount....they will be in the area for a while...if you send me (WU mail) an address,name, etc., I'll be glad to see if they can check it out... Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

826. IceCoast 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

827. AusTxWthrGrl 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting txag91met: The reason the wind speeds are not CAT 3 with that pressure is the gradient (dp/dx) is weak. Nashville is 1008 mb! Incredible! Nashville?? This storm is creating its own micro-atmosphere! Member Since: 12 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

828. Levi32 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Last Observed Sample: 08/27/2011 17:12 (EDT) Wind Speed: 56 knots Gusts: 69 knots Direction: 149° T Last Observed Sample: 08/27/2011 17:12 (EDT) Barometric Pressure: 950.6 mb Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

829. CybrTeddy 21:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201

830. atmosweather 21:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting breald: If this is a dupe question please forgive me, it seems the blog ate my original post. With Irene taking a more inland track will that put Southern New England in a better position, or does it not matter because of her size? Thanks. It's not going to matter much with regards to the impacts felt in your area. Expect torrential rainfall that could exceed 10 inches in places and very gusty winds to hurricane strength. Irene is not going to be much weaker, if at all weaker, once she reaches NY and New England. She is doing an incredible job of remaining a very deep and intense storm, even better than I expected...despite agreeing with the models that suggested she would do this. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

832. Patrap 21:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Norfolk NEXRAD Radar Base Reflectivity 0.50� Elevation Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

833. Levi32 21:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting txag91met: I don't see that happening...water temps don't support a CAT 3 now...upper 70s off VA coast. I do see gusts to 70 mph in spots (NYC)...just a HUGE system. I don't expect it either, but people are going to be under 60-80mph gusts for a very long duration. It won't be that fun. Water will be a bigger damage problem in NYC, from both sky and ocean. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

834. petewxwatcher 21:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
The Duck Pier note about the pressure recording too low by 1.5 mb means we should use it with caution. What if it is wrong by more? But if that figure for the discrepancy is accurate the central pressure is 947 mb or lower. Member Since: 24 Mars 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392

835. DontAnnoyMe 21:31 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting breald: If this is a dupe question please forgive me, it seems the blog ate my original post. With Irene taking a more inland track will that put Southern New England in a better position, or does it not matter because of her size? Thanks. Boston AFD: HURRICANE IRENE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CONNECTICUT AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SUMMARY OF MAIN IMPACTS... 1) DAMAGING WINDS. IRENE HAS SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60 MPH...WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE ALSO LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHWEST NH...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IRENE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SW TO WSW WINDS BEHIND IRENE WILL ALSO PROBABLY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH...WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...WITH CORRESPONDING PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. 2) SERIOUS FLOODING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. BUT ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OF IRENE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHESHIRE COUNTY NH TO WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY...TO HARTFORD COUNTY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. FARTHER TO THE EAST...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE. LESSER AMOUNTS OUT ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFICS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. 3) POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER PORTION OF NARRAGANSETT BAY...A 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE 8 AM. A 3 TO 6 FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE THERE ON THE INCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM. IN BUZZARDS BAY...A 4 TO 7 FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY ON THE INCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE. EVEN THOUGH IRENE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN...VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLOWING ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY...WHICH IS ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE AS WELL. THE WATER PILED UP FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE HAD MUCH CHANCE TO EXIT THE BAY BEFORE THE TIDE IS INCOMING AND WINDS ARE FROM THE WSW IN THE EVENING. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CAPE COD. 4) HIGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG EXPOSED RI AND SOUTHEAST MA COASTS AND THIS WILL CAUSE EROSION. THERE IS A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. 5) A FEW WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF IRENE. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

836. largeeyes 21:31 GMT le 27 août 2011
WITN reporting 13.5" rain at the station. Yowza. Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1379

837. Patrap 21:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

838. atmosweather 21:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1. I think the extra energy from the interaction with the approaching mid latitude system is helping her maintain her low pressure...it is adding to the convective instability on the western flank while also decreasing the pressure gradient further. I don't see her weakening much if at all up until landfall in the northeast. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

839. PcolaDan 21:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
@wunderground Weather Underground NBC: 10 foot high sand dunes built on Long Island to protect from high tide and heavy surf #Irene Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

840. carpentergrl 21:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
Found a beach/surf cam on Long Beach NY.... http://www.longbeachsurfcam.com/forecast.html Member Since: 12 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 28

842. Carnoustie 21:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1. is the pressure and wind speed not in some way relative to the total size of the wind field? Member Since: 31 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

843. Patrap 21:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Norfolk NEXRAD Radar Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

844. NCSaint 21:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Power's back on in parts of Onslow County now. MAN am I glad that was only a Cat 1!! Had a funnel run through the tree tops right behind my house and sucked my 12X16 metal shed right off it's footing, but otherwise just some minor shingle damage. I really hate when they approach overnight like Irene did. Member Since: 13 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

845. atmosweather 21:34 GMT le 27 août 2011
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE. I noticed that a little while ago...quite remarkable for a fully warm core tropical system. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

846. islander101010 21:34 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1. more dangerous than your nomal cat 1 Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2964

847. largeeyes 21:34 GMT le 27 août 2011
Pamlico, Neuse River and such should start dropping as the winds now come out of the west, North west. Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1379

848. washingtonian115 21:35 GMT le 27 août 2011
I manage to save some of the battery life for my laptop.So I'm not gonna be on here long.Power is lost.So far I've herd about one death here in N.C.Havn't here much about anything today really due to power being out.However I've been in touch with my family from time to time.Their conditions are starting to really deteriorate. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618

849. wunderweatherman123 21:35 GMT le 27 août 2011
Marlboro, NJ 75°F \| °C Sat Overcast Wind: E at 18 mph Humidity: 94% it is pouring here. literally like walls of rain are coming down. very scary.. Member Since: 23 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

850. largeeyes 21:36 GMT le 27 août 2011
Press, much of the area is under curfew FYI. Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1379

851. atmosweather 21:36 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting DocNDswamp: Irene pretty much on expected NNE track right along the seaboard... Interesting the NWD motion shift prior to landfall and into E NC, as appeared for a while last night would track closer to Hatteras... However, from what I recall, the GFS had indicated that temporary bend back to the left induced by combined approaching trof weakness / the orientation of Atlantic ridge building NW-ward simultaneously, holding firm... More or less ECMWF did same... Overall, the guidance from those two models has been excellent as usual when it counts most. Often the case, can note last several days the NHC has just split it's track between their narrow range. Also find amazing how the steering pattern projections send Irene far NEWD into northern latitudes / near polar regions within 3-4 days, higher up than many... If ever wanted to see a classic example of a tropical cyclone transporting heat from the tropics to the poles, and doing it quite literally, this is a good one! Safe wishes continue for all of you affected within Irene's wide swath. Excellent to see you Doc...great discussion points as usual. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

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