Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Irene hits North Carolina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:37 GMT le 27 août 2011

+22

Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.

Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.

Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)

Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.

Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1151 - 1201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 — Blog Index

1151. PcolaDan 23:19 GMT le 27 août 2011
press if you're here now's your chance ;) @wunderground Weather Underground Alright, @WunderAngela here relieving @WunderShaun from Twitter duties. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1152. bluenosedave 23:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Patrap: Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery "Goodnight, goodnight, Irene. Irene, goodnight. Goodnight Irene, goodnight Irene, I'll see you in my (very unpleasant) dreams." Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1153. owntime 23:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
Just saw a gal on TWC that was having a hard time standing in 20mph winds, I guess she was just tired. Member Since: 28 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 87

1155. ncstorm 23:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
um what is this coming at the SE?? 12z ECMWF Link Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1156. Weather130 23:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: We did however had three men in Castle Hayne this morning around 1am go swimming at the cape fear river ...one of the guys is missing and they arent able to look for the body until Irene winds come down.. What kind of idiot does that? These guys must been extremely stupid, suicidal or both. In more relevant news the very most outter rain bands from Irene have reached the State College, PA area. No real wind here just some light rain at the moment. Member Since: 25 novembre 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

1157. TreasureCoastFl 23:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting HuracanTaino: yes, there is life beyond Florida and the Gulf Coast. Not true, I have been watching on the blog and television. Just havent chimed in much because I didnt want to overcrowd the blog . Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

1159. Trouper415 23:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Her pressure is still 950 mbs? Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637

1160. Unfriendly 23:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Va beach webcam... wave action is INTENSE! http://www.goldkeyvacations.com/blog/live/obc3.as p Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287

1161. aimetti 23:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
lol TWC giving us 1-2 inches of rain for se ct now. Probably got more than that in the rain this morning. Probably get some decent winds since on east side tho. Member Since: 20 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

1162. ncstorm 23:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Weather130: What kind of idiot does that? These guys must been extremely stupid, suicidal or both. In more relevant news the very most outter rain bands from Irene have reached the State College, PA area. No real wind here just some light rain at the moment. I think it was a whole lotta of Budweiser and little commonsense.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1163. Hibiscus07 23:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
Any other Massachusetts-ites on tonight? I'm in Littleton. We'll be east of the center, so I wonder what we'll see for rain and wind... Member Since: 30 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10

1164. Methurricanes 23:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
Naragansett RI, Waves already hitting the seawall, high tied around 8:30pm. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1165. TXInaSpin 23:23 GMT le 27 août 2011
P451... I wish you and your family a smooth ride.. Stay safe and keep the kin safe. Member Since: 28 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

1166. PcolaDan 23:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting barbamz: So just the people who a really interesting in the power of nature are left? At least those with power (grids). - This place Roanoke should be very much inland? Or am I wrong? It looks to be right on the seaside. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ So it seems. A shame. That cam is near Roanoke Sound North Carolina. I think you are looking at Roanoke Virginia. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1167. Methurricanes 23:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Hibiscus07: Any other Massachusetts-ites on tonight? I'm in Littleton. We'll be east of the center, so I wonder what we'll see for rain and wind... Lowell area here. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1168. TexasGulf 23:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
Remember that the "sustained winds" of a storm aren't necessarily what you experience at a typical house. Your surroundings definitely affect the actual wind speed that affects you and your home or auto. Just because a Hurricane has sustained winds of 100 mph, for example... you would only experience those winds and higher gusts in open fields, at higher elevations (generally above tree top level) and in open areas. You could get even higher wind gusts due to funnel effects between buildings. However, a normal residential home is surrounded by other homes. They help break the wind. Trees, highway overpasses, etc... all help reduce the wind at ground level. In that same 100 mph sustained wind hurricane... a typical house may not experience more than 80 mph sustained at worst because there is a LOT of obstructions at normal house level that helps break the wind. Member Since: 28 avril 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354

1169. txag91met 23:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting atmosweather: Near 0% chance...her cloud pattern and inner core dynamics are no longer characteristic of a typical intense hurricane that you see in the deep tropics. She is being influenced more and more by the stalled surface front just inland from the coastal mid-Atlantic and northeast and the approaching mid latitude system in southern Canada. However this does not mean she cannot maintain her strength, because this type of a setup is indicative of a storm that is using the baroclinic energy provided by the frontal boundary and approaching trough to her advantage. Water temps don't support it either...now it is entraining some dry air, it is clearly weakening on satellite...should see the pressure go up soon. Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

1170. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: um what is this coming at the SE?? 12z ECMWF A strong Category 4 hurricane. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360

1172. tpabarb 23:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: um what is this coming at the SE?? 12z ECMWF Link NCstorm, how'd you make out? I'm told the house is fine, but there's no power. Member Since: 20 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

1173. PrivateIdaho 23:26 GMT le 27 août 2011
Buoy east of Va Beach. 23.6' waves. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1174. 1million 23:26 GMT le 27 août 2011
6 people have died so far... Member Since: 22 octobre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 118

1175. ncstorm 23:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: A strong Category 4 hurricane. It was on the 00Z run too..:(.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1176. PcolaDan 23:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting P451: lol! So some reports from "home" in central NJ is heavy rain and some decent wind gusts starting to take shape. Seems like the major stuff is down in MD/VA right now. Taking it's sweet time heading north. A long night awaits you I'm afraid. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1177. Methurricanes 23:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting FLdewey: JFK like you've never sen before... $10 say security is playing field hockey with golf carts and broom sticks inside the terminal. they are using all of the airports as shelters. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

1178. charlottefl 23:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting P451: LOL! Perfect. I'm in SC almost to the GA border and it's 999.7 here Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1179. atmosweather 23:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting txag91met: Water temps don't support it either...now it is entraining some dry air, it is clearly weakening on satellite...should see the pressure go up soon. Deep convection has been waning all night and all day and the pressure didn't budge more than a millibar...she will not weaken much, if at all. The shear and dry air is not enough with the type of weather system Irene has become and with her incredible size and sprawled out convective energy. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

1180. ncstorm 23:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting tpabarb: NCstorm, how'd you make out? I'm told the house is fine, but there's no power. We did fine..lost power here, got it back about 30 minutes ago..in all 62000 people lost power in Wilmington from Irene..about 25000 are still without power.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1181. txag91met 23:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Hottest temp ever today in Austin Tx for August of 110, goodbye soon to the stinking high pressure, major weather changes coming to Texas soon. Why were so many people driving around in a hurricane though, it puzzles me, when I have gone thru Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, I did not got anywhere until it was safe. 107F here in Houston, tied the 2nd highest temp...it may have gotten to 108F...all-time high is 109F in Sept 2000. Good riddance to this heat later this week! Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

1182. animalrsq 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
DC mayor just said on CNN he expects 2-4 inches of rain. What???!!!!! Member Since: 4 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 194

1183. atmosweather 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: A strong Category 4 hurricane. Or if he/she is like Irene, a lower end Category 3 storm lol. Member Since: 24 septembre 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

1184. islander101010 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting 1million: 6 people have died so far... everyone wants to be a storm chaser nowadays sign me up Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2970

1185. cindyker 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: they are using all of the airports as shelters. huh, I would have thought that with Laguardia and Kennedy both being on the water, they would be evacuation zones.. not shelters. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

1186. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: It was on the 00Z run too..:(.. I feel freak if we have another hurricane, stronger too. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360

1187. IMA 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting txag91met: 107F here in Houston, tied the 2nd highest temp...it may have gotten to 108F...all-time high is 109F in Sept 2000. Good riddance to this heat later this week! I sure hope you're right, this heat (San Antonio for me) is kickin' my rear. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1261

1188. ncstorm 23:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Stay Safe P451! Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1190. hahaguy 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I feel freak if we have another hurricane, stronger too. Like in 2004 down here with frances and jeanne. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

1191. 1million 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Trouper415: Her pressure is still 950 mbs? Big storm... and there will be flooding at high tide northward including NYC with the extra factor of the MOON... Member Since: 22 octobre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 118

1192. CosmicEvents 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: I'm preparing a care package for you.....Beer, cheetos, slimjims, and beer. If he's in NYC have a reciprocal exchange. He/she can ship you some pizza, bagels, whatever. Most of it really is better in NYC area, the food is the only thing I miss. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

1193. ncstorm 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I feel freak if we have another hurricane, stronger too. Bertha..then Fran..deja vu.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8504

1194. tpabarb 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: We did fine..lost power here, got it back about 30 minutes ago..in all 62000 people lost power in Wilmington from Irene..about 25000 are still without power.. Good to hear that you're fine and your power is back! I think mine is still out according to the outage map. I'm coming back tomorrow power or not, unless I can expense the hotel bill to my job for wanting me to work on a sunday though we had a hurricane Member Since: 20 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

1195. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting atmosweather: Or if he/she is like Irene, a lower end Category 3 storm lol. Maybe, if this wave actually does develop into a major hurricane, it will be a normal one that can be predicted fairly easily. :P Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25360

1196. watercayman 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting FLdewey: JFK like you've never sen before... $10 say security is playing field hockey with golf carts and broom sticks inside the terminal. Ok, Dewey, you've made me laugh a heck of a lot over the years, but this one just put a great image in my mind. Nice! Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 77

1197. Levi32 23:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Look at the red echos flaring up NNW of the center already as soon as it gets over water. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25462

1198. DontAnnoyMe 23:31 GMT le 27 août 2011
Progress Energy Outage Map Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

1199. barbamz 23:31 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: So it seems. A shame. That cam is near Roanoke Sound North Carolina. I think you are looking at Roanoke Virginia. I did for sure. This Irene is a lesson in US geography for me, lol. Thanks. Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1616

1200. BobinTampa 23:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Levi32: Look at the red echos flaring up NNW of the center already as soon as it gets over water. optical illusion or did she take a turn to the NE? Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1201. wunderweatherman123 23:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
I know alot of people cant see the images but the 18z GFS shows a tropical storm developing in the Bay of Campeche and making landfall as a hurricane in lousiana Member Since: 23 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

Viewing: 1151 - 1201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters