Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Irene hits North Carolina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:37 GMT le 27 août 2011

+22

Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.

Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.

Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)

Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.

Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)

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401. JLPR2 19:14 GMT le 27 août 2011
Gro should be posting this, but seeing as he isn't around. xD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

402. h0db 19:14 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting QacarXan: Still not seeing the anticipated swoop NE. Am I missing something? TIA! See: 374. WeatherNerdPR 7:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2011 Radar image elapsed up to 15:00 EDT Member Since: 5 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 88

403. aspectre 19:14 GMT le 27 août 2011
H.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 26August_6pmGMT and ending 27August_6pmGMT The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection. Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT : H.Irene's travel-speed was 9.7mph(15.6k/h) on a heading of 17degrees(NNE) H.Irene was headed toward passage over BackBayNationalWildlifeRefuge,Virginia for reentry into the Atlantic ~7hours from now Copy&paste 31.1n77.5w-32.1n77.1w, 32.1n77.1w-33.4n76.6w, 33.4n76.6w-34.7n76.6w, 34.7n76.6w-35.5n76.3w, konx, 34.7n76.6w-36.598n75.879w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info The previous mapping (for 27August_12pmGMT) Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

404. AtHomeInTX 19:15 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TexasHurricane: what is it showing? Having a hard time viewing... Looks to be an area of low pressure in BOC/SWGOM being drawn up into TX by a passing front. NOGAPS shows the low pressure into MX of course. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3889

405. dader 19:16 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL: Floridian here on Long Island for Irene. I'll be reporting all night long. Stay tuned. Same- Floridian in Southampton. Light drizzle right now- calm winds but you can see the tree tops starting to get going. The waves across the Shinnecock Inlet sound tremendous. But Dune Road is closed so I can't view it. Ill report in as well. Member Since: 6 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 165

406. GeauxNola 19:16 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Gorty: Does elongated means wider reaching strong winds? I heard those are supposed to expand more as she comes up here. No, elongated just means stretched out to the north more so than a symmetrical storm which would be more round than this storm is now. The wider reaching winds you heard about are probably due to the more subtropical nature she will take on as she moves further north. Member Since: 19 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

407. summerland 19:16 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting QacarXan: Still not seeing the anticipated swoop NE. Am I missing something? TIA! Be patient. Irene is a slow, lumbering monster. She'll get there in her own time. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

408. TexasHurricane 19:16 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Looks to be an area of low pressure in BOC/SWGOM being drawn up into TX by a passing front. NOGAPS shows the low pressure into MX of course. hmmm, ok. guess we will see. Thanks Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

409. IceCoast 19:17 GMT le 27 août 2011
Good live stream on the OBX of NC by some storm chasers. 60-70Mph Gusts and 969mb pressure at there location. The sound they are in has had its water pushed all the way out by the strong winds from the east. Link http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

410. CybrTeddy 19:17 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting JLPR2: Gro should be posting this, but seeing as he isn't around. xD Very probable that 92L will be tagged with that African wave within the next 12-24 hours, assuming that is model support remains as tight as it is now and has been for the last few days. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

411. NOVArules 19:18 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting KEHCharleston: From looking at some of the TV coverage, folks in VA seem to be taking Irene a little less seriously than other areas that are in Irene's path (lots of folks on the road - driving around, waving to news reporters and cameras, bars open for hurricane parties etc). I have seen the storm planning outlined by Governors of NC and NJ, Mayor Bloomberg, but have not heard what authorities in Virginia have planned. Any of you know? Here in Northern Virginia, Irene is only giving us rain, not very windy yet. Member Since: 26 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

412. Methurricanes 19:18 GMT le 27 août 2011
Still raining hear, NNW of Boston. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

414. BoyntonBeachFL 19:19 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting dader: Same- Floridian in Southampton. Light drizzle right now- calm winds but you can see the tree tops starting to get going. The waves across the Shinnecock Inlet sound tremendous. But Dune Road is closed so I can't view it. Ill report in as well. I was down at Long Beach earlier, waves were already large and surfers were being chased out of the water. Member Since: 18 février 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 137

415. IceCoast 19:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: Still raining hear, NNW of Boston. Are you in Methuen or the Merrimack Valley by any chance? Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

416. Gorty 19:20 GMT le 27 août 2011
So guys, my ground is very soggy from earlier rains, I am forecast to get at least up to 10 inches of rain. How serious of a flood threat is that? Member Since: 8 novembre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 1058

417. yonzabam 19:21 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting winter123: Don't worry, the SAL will take care of it (like every other wave this year), at least in the short term. If it survives towards about 500 miles east of the islands, then I'll pay attention... I think the waves have been suppressed by a 'lack of vertical instability' throughout the Atlantic this season. Member Since: 20 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1736

418. lottotexas 19:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
For what it's worth, TWC rain chances next week: Thur Fri Sat Sun Hou 30% 40% 60% 60% SA 0% 30% 60% 60% CC 40% 40% 40% 60% Beau 30% 40% 40% 40% Member Since: 3 décembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

419. presslord 19:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
just heard a lady from the Upper West Side say her preparation was that she had some good books to read... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

420. dader 19:22 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL: I was down at Long Beach earlier, waves were already large and surfers were being chased out of the water. Long Beach should get it bad. We are concerned about a Dune Road breach- which will happen- but depending on how bad it is. I think LI may get the worst of this on the East Coast-- outside of the OBX Member Since: 6 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 165

421. AtHomeInTX 19:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting lottotexas: For what it's worth, TWC rain chances next week: Thur Fri Sat Sun Hou 30% 40% 60% 60% SA 30% 60% 60% CC 40% 40% 40% 60% Beau 30% 40% 40% 40% Been awhile since we've seen that. Here's hopin'. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3889

422. summerland 19:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting lottotexas: For what it's worth, TWC rain chances next week: Thur Fri Sat Sun Hou 30% 40% 60% 60% SA 30% 60% 60% CC 40% 40% 40% 60% Beau 30% 40% 40% 40% 60%!! That's fantastic! Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

423. TexasHurricane 19:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
channel 12 Beaumont,TX A trough will move through Southeast Texas Saturday Afternoon. This will bring much drier air into the area. The result will be cooler lows and hotter afternoon highs. Temperatures will be extremely hot. By next Tuesday and Wednesday, we will "cool" to near 100 both days. Next Thursday and Friday, afternoon highs will continue the cooling trend and only reach the mid-nineties. Rain chances will continue to be zero through next Wednesday. Rain chances return to the forecast next Thursday and Friday. Around the 5th of September, the reliable European Model shows a Tropical Storm moving into Mexico south of Brownsville. Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

424. Methurricanes 19:24 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting IceCoast: Are you in Methuen or the Merrimack Valley by any chance? Lowell. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

425. yoboi 19:25 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting aislinnpaps: Luck??? Gee, thanks. Galveston was ready for Rita, most of LA wasn't as prepared. LA was prepared no loss of life Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421

426. wxdrone 19:26 GMT le 27 août 2011
I admit that I was critical of the models at first, but once they got a grasp on things, they've been right on. I'll eat crow. Thank you. Member Since: 4 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

428. weatherrx 19:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
It does not appear that Irene is even a Hurricane anymore. Can someone disprove this Member Since: 26 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

429. IceCoast 19:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Gorty: So guys, my ground is very soggy from earlier rains, I am forecast to get at least up to 10 inches of rain. How serious of a flood threat is that? There is a very serious Flood threat for your area. NWS Taunton MA discussion on heavy rainfall. 3) HEAVY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE: THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON 4 TO 8 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1-3 INCHES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA...CAPE COD...AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN THE CT RVR VLY GIVEN THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND EVIDENCE OF A FRONTAL STRUCTURE DEVELOPING FROM IRENE NORTHWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY THE CT RVR VLY IS AT GREATEST RISK FOR MORE SERIOUS FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

430. KEHCharleston 19:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting NOVArules: Here in Northern Virginia, Irene is only giving us rain, not very windy yet. Though living on the coast is terrific (I could never live too far from the marsh), times like say a lot for living away from the coast! LOL. What did your Gov say about plans for coastal VA? Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

431. WeatherNerdPR 19:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting wxdrone: I admit that I was critical of the models at first, but once they got a grasp on things, they've been right on. I'll eat crow. Thank you. Fried crow tastes better. Just sayin'... Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

432. AtHomeInTX 19:27 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting TexasHurricane: channel 12 Beaumont,TX A trough will move through Southeast Texas Saturday Afternoon. This will bring much drier air into the area. The result will be cooler lows and hotter afternoon highs. Temperatures will be extremely hot. By next Tuesday and Wednesday, we will "cool" to near 100 both days. Next Thursday and Friday, afternoon highs will continue the cooling trend and only reach the mid-nineties. Rain chances will continue to be zero through next Wednesday. Rain chances return to the forecast next Thursday and Friday. Around the 5th of September, the reliable European Model shows a Tropical Storm moving into Mexico south of Brownsville. Lol. This is the same reliable model that showed no storms in the gulf for a month. And a coldfront coming through SE TX on the 10th ending hurricane season. Lol. Gotta love that guy. :) Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3889

433. summerland 19:28 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Gorty: So guys, my ground is very soggy from earlier rains, I am forecast to get at least up to 10 inches of rain. How serious of a flood threat is that? How full are your storm sewers? How full are area creeks and rivers, or wherever the run-off goes? If they're already full, then take the level of your standing water and add at least ten inches. Floods depend on water having somewhere to go, so that's your main variable. If the creeks and rivers aren't full yet, then the water has an outlet. Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

434. IceCoast 19:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: Lowell. Nice, pretty much my whole family (immediate and extended) lives in the Merrimack Valley so keep me updated on conditions there. Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

435. hamla 19:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: Lowell. i have a sister that lives in westford,i used to live in lowell,bilerica now in louisiana/mississippi stay safe up there Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

436. largeeyes 19:29 GMT le 27 août 2011
WOW, just saw pictures of the mall in New Bern. It looks like its an island. I don't even know where that water came from. Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

437. MississippiWx 19:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Irene's equatorial outflow channel extends down to South America. Amazing. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

438. stormwatcherCI 19:30 GMT le 27 août 2011
Link NHC online live hurricane scanner Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

439. Joshfsu123 19:31 GMT le 27 août 2011
Winds continue to pick up in DC - 16mph, gusts to 31 mph now. Pressure continues to fall - down to 1002mb Member Since: 6 juillet 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

441. MississippiWx 19:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
00z Euro forecast a decent positive NAO in the coming week. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651

442. TexasHurricane 19:32 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Lol. This is the same reliable model that showed no storms in the gulf for a month. And a coldfront coming through SE TX on the 10th ending hurricane season. Lol. Gotta love that guy. :) :) mail... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

443. BDAwx 19:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
it looks like Irene is about to "yo-yo" up the coast rather than wrapping the dry air into its western side. I think ridiculously heavy rain and major flooding to the west of the storm's track is very likely. I would label Irene, a serious but manageable hurricane threat. Member Since: 3 août 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

444. CrazyDuke 19:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
A word of caution about storms exiting the Outer Banks: Frequently they will jump start strengthening as they exit the coast. I know VA Beach and Norfolk have been smacked by an ex-TD that suddenly becomes a TS and a TS that suddenly becomes a Cat. 1 upon exiting, for instance. It usually does not last long. And, they do not strengthen catastrophically. But, it happens. The best I can figure is the wetlands and sounds have just enough latent heat and delta T to get things going again by the time it exits. Member Since: 13 février 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140

445. NeverPanic 19:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting JLPR2: Gro should be posting this, but seeing as he isn't around. xD Could be the one cmc, gfs and ngp have forming. ngp cmc gfs Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 834

446. o22sail 19:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting Gorty: So guys, my ground is very soggy from earlier rains, I am forecast to get at least up to 10 inches of rain. How serious of a flood threat is that? We'll need just a little more information... Do you live on the top of the hill, or the bottom? ;) Member Since: 27 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

448. lottotexas 19:33 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Lol. This is the same reliable model that showed no storms in the gulf for a month. And a coldfront coming through SE TX on the 10th ending hurricane season. Lol. Gotta love that guy. :) From Austin/San Antonio NWS: HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND TO BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE LATEST GFS IS STARTING TO GET ON BOARD WITH THIS PATTERN. Member Since: 3 décembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

450. MiamiHurricanes09 19:34 GMT le 27 août 2011
12z ECMWF, 240 hours. (Specifics are not to be taken seriously, as with every model further out than 120-144 hours). Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

451. Gorty 19:34 GMT le 27 août 2011
Quoting summerland: How full are your storm sewers? How full are area creeks and rivers, or wherever the run-off goes? If they're already full, then take the level of your standing water and add at least ten inches. Floods depend on water having somewhere to go, so that's your main variable. If the creeks and rivers aren't full yet, then the water has an outlet. I live in a rural area so it depends on how high the water table is currently. I do have a stream, but the hill is steep enough where I will need feet of rain to get it into my backyard. If my water table is high already, I could see yard flooding. Member Since: 8 novembre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 1058

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