Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:45 GMT le 28 août 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Man, my ignored list is taking a beating tonight.
Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1400. Levi32
Can you guys please stop talking with the trolls? Thanks.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Embarrassing,

Your not only a complete liar, your a complete idiot.

You have no care for anything but yourself, you don't have friends in NJ, they where flooded really badly. Do you not pay attention to the news? Vermont is also getting flooded real bad. Oh, that's right.. your too busy having your head up the place where it don't shine.

TropicalAnalystwx13 and WeatherNerdPR, as well as several other bloggers WENT THROUGH IRENE. They can tell you different.

/rant off.


Yeah, Irene was more than a weak little storm...
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
embarrassing = troll, ignore.

= already ignored
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The makeup day for students and staff will be announced at a later time.
---

Cool. :)


You won't be saying that on the makeup day ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
School Closed Monday
Posted on 08/28/2011

Due to power outages associated with Hurricane Irene, several schools remain without power. While we anticipate power may be restored by morning, it takes several hours for district staff to fully restore school facilities for occupancy. Therefore, Pender County Schools will be closed to students and staff Monday, August 29. Maintenance staff should report at their normal time. The makeup day for students and staff will be announced at a later time.

YAY!

Lucky! lol
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
I survived Super catistrophic distructocane Irene!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Embarrassing,

You're not only a complete liar, you're a complete idiot.

You have no care for anything but yourself, you don't have friends in NJ, they where flooded really badly. Do you not pay attention to the news? Vermont is also getting flooded real bad. Oh, that's right.. your too busy having your head up the place where it don't shine.

TropicalAnalystwx13 and WeatherNerdPR, as well as several other bloggers WENT THROUGH IRENE. They can tell you different.

/rant off.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24546
DR. MASTERS!
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting Tazmanian:




we can post what evere mode runs we want


My question wasn't directed to you, now was it? Someone makes a point that models can't be trusted so far out and prior to that that same blogger posts a model that far out and I want to know the "logic".

Seems the poster of the long range model is drumming up hype and then contradicted itself.
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
School Closed Monday
Posted on 08/28/2011

Due to power outages associated with Hurricane Irene, several schools remain without power. While we anticipate power may be restored by morning, it takes several hours for district staff to fully restore school facilities for occupancy. Therefore, Pender County Schools will be closed to students and staff Monday, August 29. Maintenance staff should report at their normal time. The makeup day for students and staff will be announced at a later time.
---

Cool. :)
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
1388. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


They will also give the blob to the NW of 92L a 10% chance or less.


NOAA is calling that blob 10L.
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I think he's back without the CAPS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
embarrassing = troll, ignore.
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1385. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:

The 12z GFS ensembles say it's not necessarily over right away for 92L in terms of land interaction. The orange blobs represent ensemble member variance in MSLP, depicting possible locations for 92L in 13 days:





12z NAEFS has a very similar spread at Day 13:

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
the money was gonna be spent either way...evacuation, etc....or body bags...personally, I'll go with evac
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is 111 with very low humidity and strong hot winds blowing here now, desert conditions, when you go out in the wind it is brutal. These kind of conditions happen at the end of a heatwave.I have 113 in the shade here 20 miles sw of Waco. T storms forming a bank of clouds to the west will at least block the sun for the last couple of hrs of this, probably the hottest day this summer-hope its the last one and now looking forward to soaking rains for Labor Day weekend...
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Quoting Levi32:
The 12z GFS ensembles say it's not necessarily over right away for 92L. The orange blobs represent ensemble member variance, depicting possible locations for 92L in 13 days:



Anywhere from Out to Sea to USA landfall.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
NYers (remarkably) don't complain after Irene

"In response to a question about people criticizing his Irene for being overblown, Bloomberg said: "Well, they should look in a mirror. They're alive today whether because of it or in spite of it.""

'Nuf said.
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Quoting embarrassing:
by far one of the most embarrassing moments in history for the weather establishment. this weak little storm was nothing more than an inconvenience after being hyped up as the storm of the century. now people won't be so foolish or quick to evacuate on the orders of overly-protective "officials". evacuation should be rare indeed.


Boo!!!
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting P451:
GFS



ECMWF




CMC



Big 'cane coming. Hopefully it'll stay out at see and we can all just watch and admire. Maybe even a shot at first Cat 5 since 2007, though it's a bit early to call that lol.

Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1378. Levi32
The 12z GFS ensembles say it's not necessarily over right away for 92L in terms of land interaction. The orange blobs represent ensemble member variance in MSLP, depicting possible locations for 92L in 13 days:

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
1377. Michfan
Better for it to be overhyped than underhyped. People actually paid attention to this storm and that is a good thing. Less chances of lives being lost.
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1376. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Progess of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...



(Click to enlarge)

Get ready to add 12/Katia to that list by tuesday. For those that think Irene didnt harm a fly, then whats with the 23 people total that have lost thier lives (Inluding those in the Carrebean)?? Just cause she didnt cause all out doom doesnt give you a reason to downplay her affects.
Member Since: 19 décembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting embarrassing
(*insert trolling non-sense here*)

Screw you.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1374. bappit
Quoting PcolaDan:

And your most embarrassing moment occurred with your first post.

I think they be trollin.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

And your most embarrassing moment occurred with your first post.


For an account opened yesterday.
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 888
1372. falloch
Regards to wthbearSF and Lonewolf for your posts. I understand the excitement when something dramatic is put on stage by the natural world (which is why I also check on earthquake sites every morning as well). It's almost as though I wish people weren't involved, just so I could see what pans out weather-wise without thinking about the human consequences. (I breezily assume animals will make it through things like hurricanes, which is totally human-centric, even though for me, one of the most amazing and distressing depictions about a hurricane and its effect on animals was The Yearling by M.M. Rawlings, which I can remember reading when I was a child.) I especially rely on WeatherU during bad US East Coast weather. I live on W. coast of Scotland and my 80+ year old mom lives in Westchester County, NY - so many posts in the past day or two have helped me track what's going on, and I've got some background from WeatherU when I phone her. Thanks to all of you, even the grumpy ones ...
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Quoting listenerVT:



Thank you. We are still experiencing Irene here in Vermont, and there has been sorrow here today.

We are still getting emergency storm reports interrupting regular television shows. The wind gusts are impressive, and the lights keep flickering...
Be safe.
I'm familiar with the southern Vermont area. I'm sick looking at the reports. There's a place on 100 a little north of Mt. Snow that sells the best peach pie you'll ever taste that I heard just got swept away. A relatively minor loss in an ongoing greater calamity, but it hits home.
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Quoting embarrassing:

And your most embarrassing moment occurred with your first post.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Progess of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...



They probably don't have a pixel size small enough for poor Jose
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 888
Quoting bappit:

The wind is not the problem. The problem is the heavy rain falling on already saturated ground.


Agreed! I was just saying things are worse flooding wise than most realize.
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@nytimesbusiness
nytimesbusiness
Irene Damage May Hit $7 Billion, Adding to Insurer Woes nyti.ms/n6f4O4
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1364. wxdrone
Quoting jascott1967:


Zero, you imbecile.


That's not very polite.
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19 deaths in the US, 17 direct...
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1362. wxdrone
Quoting jascott1967:
Overhyping a storm is as bad, if not WORSE than underhyping the storm. How seriously will the people that left NC and all up the eastern seaboard be the next time a storm approaches.

don't mistake and make an irresponsible comment that people who are saying the storm was overhyped by stating we wanted more death and destruction. That's careless. I wanted Irene to curve out to sea and knew it would weaken after Dr. Masters alluded it would at least not strengthen and was looking ragged.


There truly is no overhype/underhype because had just one variable changed with Irene, so would her impacts. Forecasters are doing the best they can and the media simply gets the message out. Parents of a child that's been killed in Irene are very likely to discount the so-called "overhype" accusations. That's my point.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


The Catskills are home for me, where I grew up. My sister is okay, has electric, etc. But all around her, the other villages, there is massage flooding, people being rescued from a hotel. 209 is closed, which is one of the roads to get from one village to another. One whole village is being evacuated due to the Neversink overflowing. One person dead so far, caught in a car and rescue couldn't get to them.


Some good info on the Catskills here. Has a live blog.
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Progess of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...



(Click to enlarge)
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32687
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


B. 80%


They will also give the blob to the NW of 92L a 10% chance or less.
Member Since: 30 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
Quoting leicesterlass:
Can someone pls tell me why on this site 92 is shown at 10.7N yet on other sites it is at 9.5


It's not even a formed system yet...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
FWC...

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 92L at 8PM?

A. 70%
B. 80%
C. 90%
D. ~100%
E. Lower or classification

C or D
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1356. bappit
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
This is worse than most realize. Could you imagine if this came in @ cat 3???

The wind is not the problem. The problem is the heavy rain falling on already saturated ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1355. DFWjc
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Shock! For a change the news outlets are actually under reporting. Maybe they don't know what's going on???


Don't forget this is the week NatGeo has updated information on 9/11...
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Quoting jascott1967:


Then why do you keep posting them?




we can post what evere mode runs we want
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting WthrBearSF:
I truly feel sorry for those of you who are disappointed Irene didn't do more damage, for those of you pointing judgmental fingers at the NHC, and for those of you who feel duped. I'm happy that in spite of this, you will still be protected in the future by the army of people who do their jobs to the best of their ability regardless of the nastiness thrown their way on a regular basis.


I've experienced a similar situation happening to the weather service back during this spring's flooding. We got grief from a few municipalities because they spent so much money on flood prevention methods but the flooding turned out to be just a bit less bad than expected. I really wanted to ask them... "so for the record, you are upset that your city DIDN'T flood?"
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
FWC...

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 92L at 8PM?

A. 70%
B. 80%
C. 90%
D. ~100%
E. Lower or classification



B. 80%
Member Since: 30 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
Quoting P451:


Exactly. Early runs on any system are to be generally discounted and used as a rough guide only.

Early model runs also tend to have a northern bias to them that changes over time.



Then why do you keep posting them?
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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