TD 13 intensifying; Katia may pass uncomfortably close to U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:28 GMT le 02 septembre 2011

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Tropical Depression Thirteen formed last night over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is slowly intensifying, but isn't in a hurry to go anywhere. What TD 13 will do is dump torrential rains along the northern Gulf Coast over the next three or more days. So far, rain amounts along the coast have mostly been below one inch. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, just 0.32" inches of rain had fallen from TD 13 as of 10 am CDT. Some coastal regions have received up to two inches, according to radar rainfall estimates. TD 13 is generating a large area of 30 - 35 mph winds over the Gulf of Mexico. At 7:20 am CDT, winds at the Mississippi Canyon 711 oil rig were southeast at 47 mph. This is above tropical storm force, but the wind instrument was 348 feet (106 m) above the ocean surface, and winds near the surface were probably considerably lower, near 35 mph. Latest surface wind observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft support leaving TD 13 as a tropical depression. Long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows heavy rain showers building along the northern Gulf Coast, but these rain showers are not well-organized into spiral bands. Strong upper-level winds out of the west-northwest are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 13, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms disorganized and pushed to the east side of the storm. However, latest satelllite loops show TD 13 is becoming increasingly organized, with a respectable spiral band forming on the southeast side, and an increase and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is very likely to be a tropical storm later today.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from TD 13 from the New Orleans radar.


Figure 2. U.S. drought conditions on August 30. The rains from TD 13 have the potential to bring major drought relief to drought-stricken portions of the coast. Note how Eastern North Carolina is no longer in drought, thanks to the rains from Hurricane Irene. These rains also came close to putting out a persistent fire that had been burning in the Great Dismal Swamp near the Virginia/North Carolina border. Image Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Forecast for TD 13
TD 13's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure argue against rapid intensification of the storm for the next three days. Also tending to slow intensification will be the slow movement of the storm, which will allow cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, thanks to wind and wave action. Tropical cyclones strongly cool the water's surface when they pass over it, as seen in the time vs. depth chart of sea surface temperatures during Hurricane Irene's passage along the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) However, the Gulf of Mexico has some very warm waters near TD 13 that extend to great depth (Figure 4), so the surface cooling imparted by TD 13 will be less than that seen for Hurricane Irene. As TD 13 moves closer to the coast, more and more of its circulation will be over land, which will also slow intensification. NHC's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast for TD 13 gave the storm a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Sunday. Assuming TD 13 does not attain hurricane strength, wind damage and storm surge damage will likely not be the main concern--fresh water flooding from heavy rains will be the most dangerous impact. Also of concern is the possibility of tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is currently not highlighting the Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather, due to the lack of enough solar heating to create instability. However, there will be plenty of wind shear in the lower part of the atmosphere that can potentially create spin in the coastal thunderstorms, and it is possible that as TD 13 intensifies, it may be able to generate several dozen tornadoes.

Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Panhandle of Florida will likely receive very heavy flooding rains that will intensify Saturday and peak on Sunday. These rains should be able to put out the stubborn marsh fire east of New Orleans that has brought several days of air quality alerts to the city, but may cause moderate to severe flooding problems in other areas. The latest rainfall forecast from NOAA Hydrological Prediction Center shows that a large area of 15+ inches of rain is expected over Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The region is under moderate drought, so flooding problems will be delayed compared to what we'd normally expect from heavy rains of over a foot. Flash flood watches are posted for New Orleans and surrounding areas, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches per hour are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Ocean temperatures are near record warmth, 88°F (31°C), which will provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help TD 13 strengthen into a strong tropical storm. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf this weekend and early next week, which will likely make the motion of TD 13 erratic at times.


Figure 3. EPA, in conjunction with Rutgers University and the NJ Department of Environmental Protection, has an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV, aka the Glider) deployed off the coast of NJ (since early August) continuously monitoring ocean temperature, density, salinity, sound velocity and dissolved oxygen at different depths. The AUV's path and data are displayed at the following website: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/auvs/index.php?did =221&view=imagery. The plot of temperature versus time above shows that in the weeks prior to the arrival of Irene, the ocean was heavily stratified, with warm waters of 24 - 26°C (75 - 79°F, red colors) extending from the surface to a depth of 10 - 15 meters. A sharp thermocline existed at a depth of about 15 meters, and ocean temperatures were colder than 14°C (57°F, dark blue colors) below the thermocline. The strong winds and high wave action of Hurricane Irene on August 28 - 29 stirred up cold water from the depths to the surface, cooling the surface waters to 17 - 19°C (63 - 67°F). In the days since the hurricane, surface waters have begun to warm again. Thanks go to Kevin Kubik, Deputy Director of the Division of Environmental Science and Assessment for EPA Region 2, for making me aware of this data.


Figure 4. The total amount of heat energy in the ocean available to fuel a tropical cyclone, in kilojoules per square centimeter of surface area. Tropical cyclones that move over ocean areas with TCHP values in excess of 70 - 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly undergo rapid intensification. Waters that are warm to a great depth have the highest TCHP, and the Loop Current that brings warm water northwards from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico usually has the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic. Currently, we have an eddy that broke off from the Loop Current earlier this summer, now located a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast, that also has high TCHP values. Image Credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is continuing its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Latest satellite loops show surface-based arc-shaped clouds racing to the southwest away from Katia's core, a sign that dry air is penetrating into Katia's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing the storm of heat and moisture. Katia is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C, and these waters will increase in temperature to 29°C over the next five days. Katia will pass well north of the region of cooler waters stirred up by the passage of Hurricane Irene last week.

The models are split on when the upper-level trough of low pressure bringing the wind shear to Katia will move away, and the storm may spend two more days battling wind shear and dry air before the upper-level trough pulls away to the north and allows Katia to intensify more readily. It is still unclear how much of a threat Katia may pose to the U.S., but it is becoming increasingly clear that Katia will pass uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast. The trough of low pressure currently steering Katia to the northwest will lift out early next week, and a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Katia more to the west. This decreases the danger to Bermuda, but increases the danger to the U.S. A second trough of low pressure is expected to begin affecting Katia by the middle of next week, and will potentially recurve the storm out to sea before it hits the U.S. However, the models differ widely on the strength and timing of this trough. Meteorologist Grant Elliot of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology in Perth pointed out to me yesterday that the long-range forecast for Katia has more than the usual amount of uncertainty, due to the inability of the computer models to agree on what will happen to Tropical Storm Talas in the Western Pacific. Talas is expected to hit Japan early on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, then race northwestwards into the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska. Talas is then expected to transition into a powerful extratropical storm in the waters south of Alaska. This storm will create a ripple effect downstream in the jet stream, all the way to North America, by early next week. The timing and amplitude of the trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast expected to potentially recurve Katia out to sea next week is highly dependent upon the strength of Tropical Storm Talas during its transition to an extratropical storm. The computer models are not very good at handling these sorts of transitions, leading to more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the long-range outlook for Katia. It will probably be another 2 - 3 days before the models will begin to converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have a 17% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 21% chance of hitting Canada, a 13% chance of hitting New England, and a 55% chance of never hitting land. One almost certain impact of Katia on the U.S. will be large waves. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas on Sunday night, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.

94L
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.


Figure 5. A Portlight volunteer works to clear storm debris from Hurricane Irene in Hollywood, Maryland.

Portlight disaster relief effort in Maryland
Hurricane Irene heavily damaged the town of Hollywood, Maryland, when a tornado cut off electric power, water, and phone service. Portlight and Team Rubicon volunteers arrived before emergency personnel, after following up on a local tip. What they found was an isolated area whose plight was unknown to the larger community. Most residents were trapped at their homes by heavy debris. Portlight and Team Rubicon worked for two days to clear paths to each address, extract vehicles from debris, and cut down trees that constituted safety hazards. Portlight also instructed local residents how to operate and maintain chainsaws and safely clear debris. No other volunteer organizations or emergency personnel arrived at any time, and Portlight succeeded in meeting the specific needs of the underserved, unserved, and forgotten. Visit the Portlight blog to learn more; donations are always welcome.

I'll have a new post each morning over the coming holiday weekend; wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz, Rob Carver, and Shaun Tanner will be handling the afternoon and evening posts. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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3837. eyetoothtom1
16:18 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
I read conflicting wind reports from people in storm vs. NHC as to strength of wind. I would have go with those in it. I had disagreeble conversation a few year agos with Steve Lyons of TWC about the surge of Katrina vs. Camille. I was in the same apartment in Gulfport...in Camille the soles of my feet got wet on carpet...in Katrina water was up to my nose standing on my tippy toes. Only cinder block with steel stringer construction saved me then. Lyons argued that surge was less than Camille. But from soles to nose is quite a bit. Been in a few in the GOM since 1948 (Was a child back then :) and still here.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
3836. weatherh98
15:48 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Powers out
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
3835. weatherh98
15:42 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Can't stay but pressure is 1001 mb north of new oeans which supports a stronger storm
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
3834. Chicklit
14:50 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting scott39:
On water vapor it looks like, the dry air is being blown SE of that tail moving N. Although the center is still wrapping dry air in to it, so Im not sure if the tail will die down during the day or not.


LinkFunkTopLoopGOM

There's still a lot of moisture out there and it doesn't look like it's falling apart yet.
Guess it depends how fast N, how far W.
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
3833. jadedANDcynical
14:38 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
On the east end of Galveston Island rout now and been hoping for a more westerly track from Lee, but alas it is not to be.

Hopefully, we will get a bit of rain from the western edge over this far but I'm not holding my breath.
Member Since: 1 septembre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
3831. BLee2333
14:11 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting IKE:
TWC...center of Lee at the coast. Landfall imminent.


I was just looking at the 1325 imagery and it still looked to me to be a few hours out. I think that was a competing vorticy that was right on the coast.
Member Since: 6 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
3830. IKE
14:05 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
TWC...center of Lee at the coast. Landfall imminent.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3829. NOLALawyer
14:04 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:
just a few more weeks and Hurricane season will be over. Nothing on the horizon after Katia and Lee on the models. The peek of the season is Sept 10 and It doesn't look like there will even be a storm brewing on that date. Not that bad of a Season for the CONUS besides Vermont, other than that the CONUS looks like it will be unscathed again this year from a major cane. Kept hearing of this dangerous pattern that was setting up for a direct hit for the CONUS this year from many reliable mets, looks the mother nature decided to take those predictions and throw them out the door. I personally am tired of hearing all the hype at the beginning of the season which never pans out.


If you think Vermont has been the only area impacted this season by tropical weather, you are sorely mistaken. It is quite premature to call this season even remotely close to being "over." Just because long range models haven't generated 30 doom canes heading to Florida and The Gulf over the next three weeks does not mean this season is running out of steam. I am sitting here typing in a torrential downpour from T.S. Lee, and I can assure you, this season is not "over" for me.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
3828. coffeecrusader
14:04 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Aussiestorm, all I see on your model run is a hurricane 300 miles offshore heading NE out to sea to join the previous 10 storms that went that way to visit the fishies.
Member Since: 21 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
3827. hurricanerunaway
13:58 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting Cotillion:
"The editor of a science journal has resigned after admitting that a recent paper casting doubt on man-made climate change should not have been published.

The paper, by US scientists Roy Spencer and William Braswell, claimed that computer models of climate inflated projections of temperature increase.

It was seized on by "sceptic" bloggers, but attacked by mainstream scientists."

Link

*shrugs.


My daughter was talking about this last night during dinner. She was told of this in school and that basically global warming "isn't true" and the Earth is in a naturally occurring "warm phase"... I told her to ask her teacher for a forecast on how long the "warm phase" would last. lol
Member Since: 6 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
3825. tkeith
13:55 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Keith --
You & D stay safe!!
We're good Foxx :)

Fleet watch on a holiday weekend with a tropical storm in the neighborhood is always fun...lol.

I guess it coulda been worse though...
Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
3824. Orcasystems
13:55 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
New Blog
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3823. aislinnpaps
13:55 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: 22 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
3822. Orcasystems
13:54 GMT le 03 septembre 2011


Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3820. WeatherNerdPR
13:53 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
About to make landfall...
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3819. JrWeathermanFL
13:53 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Lee is looking stationary.
Member Since: 19 juillet 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2039
3818. muddertracker
13:53 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting GetReal:


IMO there are at least two possible centers competing within Lee. IMO the one very near 29N and 91.7W is the one to watch. Lee appears to have made a small loop-to-loop.


loop de? I guess the gfs wasn't on crack...lol
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2337
3817. HCW
13:53 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Classic example of the LIX NWS being trigger happy when KMOB isn't warning stuff

Member Since: 10 août 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
3815. AussieStorm
13:50 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting P451:
I see the NHC/NWS have no learned from the debacle that was Irene's wind forecasts.

Irene's forecasts read 55-75 gusting 90 for many regions. Most regions had a brief period of 50mph sustained gusting 65 to 70 - in a 10 minute long rain band.



Yeah, let me know if this verifies, NOLA:
=========================================


Today Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts to around 55 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


Tonight Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds 40 to 45 mph with gusts to around 60 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


Sunday Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 40 to 45 mph with gusts to around 65 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


Sunday night Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds 45 to 50 mph with gusts to around 70 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


Labor day Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain and chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts to around 70 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


Morehead City,NC had 65mph sustained winds. OZ was standing in them, just.
Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
3813. charlottefl
13:49 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Every hurricane is different. For the most part, you see sustained winds over the water, once the storm moves over land, friction with the landmass disrupts the wind flow, and the winds become more concentrated in strong gusts, and every storm is different. And every once in a while you get a few that carry those sustained winds all the way to the coast. (Andrew, Charley, etc...)
Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
3812. Cotillion
13:48 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
"The editor of a science journal has resigned after admitting that a recent paper casting doubt on man-made climate change should not have been published.

The paper, by US scientists Roy Spencer and William Braswell, claimed that computer models of climate inflated projections of temperature increase.

It was seized on by "sceptic" bloggers, but attacked by mainstream scientists."

Link

*shrugs.
Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3811. NOLALawyer
13:48 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting P451:
LOL....


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.









Whatever makes ya feel good I suppose.



I respect your opinion and I find you to be one of the more informed bloggers here, with a solid knowledge base and rational opinion. However, you need to get off of your Lee crusade. It is old, and has been for the last three days. I can tell you that I am not getting tropical force winds where I am sitting on the Northshore, but I am getting steady tropical rain. In the New Orleans area it is not winds that matter as much as water.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
3809. scott39
13:47 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
LinkDVORAKLoopLee

Looks like quite a bit of moisture still left in the 'tail' as Lee comes on shore.
On water vapor it looks like, the dry air is being blown SE of that tail moving N. Although the center is still wrapping dry air in to it, so Im not sure if the tail will die down during the day or not.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
3807. AussieStorm
13:46 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:
just a few more weeks and Hurricane season will be over. Nothing on the horizon after Katia and Lee on the models. The peek of the season is Sept 10 and It doesn't look like there will even be a storm brewing on that date. Not that bad of a Season for the CONUS besides Vermont, other than that the CONUS looks like it will be unscathed again this year from a major cane. Kept hearing of this dangerous pattern that was setting up for a direct hit for the CONUS this year from many reliable mets, looks the mother nature decided to take those predictions and throw them out the door. I personally am tired of hearing all the hype at the beginning of the season which never pans out.

Don't know which models you have been looking at, look here.

and not in Sports Illustrated.
Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
3806. GetReal
13:46 GMT le 03 septembre 2011


IMO there are at least two possible centers competing within Lee. IMO the one very near 29N and 91.7W is the one to watch. Lee appears to have made a small loop-to-loop.
Member Since: 4 juillet 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
3805. canehater1
13:45 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh lordy, this blog sometimes.. LOL.

Tropical Storm Lee is a 60 mph Tropical Storm according to the NHC.

That's what it is, they've been having a recon flying in there finding them winds, and the recon data isn't always 100% available to us, even if its on tropical recon site.

Recon data > Buoy data.

That's just the facts.

Storms like Jose though, not so much should be named. But TS Lee is a TS. No matter how much we disagree, that's what it is.


+100 If you are getting "minimal" effects from Lee, I'm happy for ya. But Lee isn't a joke as some have said It is not funny to residents of St. Bernard parish and others getting flooded, and definitely
not a joke to the guys offshore who either couldn't
or chose not to evacuate.
Member Since: 8 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1011
3803. stillwaiting
13:43 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I've been under hurricane warnings before and it never even rained and the winds never got over 30 mph.
,i was under a hurriCane warning for charley here in sarasota,maybe a sustained 30mph wind ,while 25miles to my south winds were sustained over 100mph,thank god..
Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3802. Beachfoxx
13:43 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Hey Keith --
You & D stay safe!!
Quoting tkeith:
I just came off of a tug boat an hour ago. We were getting 30-35 sustained, had a couple a gust bumpin 50 at the HPL bridge.
Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
3799. Beachfoxx
13:39 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
LOL
Good to see you too!
Hope they find it or they are gonna get dizzy!
Rain has stopped for now...
Hubby has crossed bridge to help friend secure their boat. (her spouse is in hospital.). We most likely will see the bay rise as the rains continue throughout weekend. Hopefully people on waterfront with boats have adjusted their lines.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Morning Beach, good to see ya.

It's like one of their hats flew out the window and they're running around looking for it...
Member Since: 10 juillet 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
3798. ackee
13:39 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
when will recon investigate katia
Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
3797. louisianaboy444
13:38 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting GetReal:


Rain west of the Sabine into Texas!!!


It almost looks like the COC that Kori was looking at moved inland and died out and maybe a new dominant center is forming further southwest
Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
3796. charlottefl
13:38 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting Chicklit:




1993 Superstorm:

Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
3794. louisianaboy444
13:36 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


I guess we'll have to wait for recon. Lee has consistently been a difficult storm to forecast.


From what i see on radar the center is probably about 20 miles or so south of Vermillion basically stalled or drifting to the west...and i also see a big rain shield on the western side of the circulation which if it can completely wrap this around the COC then that should filter out the dry air entrained on the South and Eastern side and it could really get going...if it were drifting west along the coast and taking longer to move inland that would not be too great..
Member Since: 29 août 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
3793. WeatherNerdPR
13:36 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Katia. lol White line.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3792. Chicklit
13:36 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
LinkDVORAKLoopLee

Looks like quite a bit of moisture still left in the 'tail' as Lee comes on shore.
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
3791. scott39
13:36 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Again i would have to respectfully disagree that moisture on the western side looks to be trying to wrap around nicely which would filter out the dry air somewhat...
Theres too much dry air to the W of the center, to get a significant wrap of moisture around the center. The W side will get winds with little rain. This will be a N and E side event with lee.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
3789. Vincent4989
13:35 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting P451:
Tropical Storm Lee:



More resembles in satellite signature a winter storm: (that actually had 60mph sustained winds extending 100s of miles)



Than a tropical storm:




I just hope Louisiana can pull through this wide region of 60mph/75mph Gusts unscathed.

200 miles east, 200 miles north, 200 miles south. An area of 60mph sustained winds 200 miles wide by 400 miles deep is nothing to fool with!

Unless, of course, the most you find is a 46mph sustained wind 122M above the surface on a single oil rig.

Then, maybe just maybe, NOLA will be spared widespread wind damage.


Is that the Storm of the Century(1993)? on the second pic?
Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
3788. Pirate999
13:35 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Quoting GetReal:


Rain west of the Sabine into Texas!!!


Tease!
Member Since: 30 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
3787. CybrTeddy
13:35 GMT le 03 septembre 2011
Oh lordy, this blog sometimes.. LOL.

Tropical Storm Lee is a 60 mph Tropical Storm according to the NHC.

That's what it is, they've been having a recon flying in there finding them winds, and the recon data isn't always 100% available to us, even if its on tropical recon site.

Recon data > Buoy data.

That's just the facts.

Storms like Jose though, not so much should be named. But TS Lee is a TS. No matter how much we disagree, that's what it is.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23572

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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