TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing
Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.
The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It's too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96L by NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L's development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.
Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 - 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.
Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.
Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding, tornadoes
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Fortunately, the dry soils that were present before the event started have helped keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range. No river is currently at major flood stage as a result of rains from Tropical Storm Lee. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop 3 - 5 inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate but not major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 40 tornado reports over the past four days from Lee, including two in North Carolina yesterday. Most of these tornadoes have been weak EF-0 and EF-1 twisters. A tornado that hit Cana, Virginia at Sunday night ripped the roof off of a gas station and injured two people. More tornadoes are likely today over coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.
Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:
Holden, LA: 15.43"
Waveland, MS: 14.11"
Fyffe, AL: 12.94"
Cleveland, TN: 12.22"
Rome, GA: 11.01"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Blowing Rock, NC: 7.18"
Fancy Gap, VA: 6.77"
Cranks Creek Reservoir, KY: 5.49"
Andover, NJ: 5.06"
Montgomery, NY: 4.23"
Pittsfield, MA: 3.90"
Bluefield, WV: 3.76"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Keene, NH: 3.64"
Hagerstown, MD: 3.60"
Norwalk, CT: 3.20"
Wilmington, DE: 2.63"
Woodford, VT: 2.63"
Washington, DC: 2.42"
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It depends, did you get 3 wishes?
I will play devil's advocate here...i have both a fresh and salt water license to fish(i actually do), signs are posted on beaches, inlets, etc as to where you can and cannot fish. most licenses have rules and regulations printed on them. each one has a book and a website to read the rules...it is the fishermans responsibility to know them...just like i have a license to drive a car, just because it is legal to make a Uturn in the state i live in doesn't mean it is legal all over, if i make one in another state and get a ticket, i am still guilty even if i didn't know so it is my responsibility to know...no, i wasnt there when he took the rods, but i am also a courtious person and wouldn't fish where people are swimming as well...when i go to the piers, i make sure that all people near the pier also know that they are NOT supposed to swim within a certain distance of the pier because of the danger...no, we were not there, but if he told the guy that people were swimming/surfing etc, and the guy didn't move... would i have taken his stuff...no..., but had my kid gotten hooked or something...then i probably would have beaten him with the rod...like i said...not arguing, just walking the fence and playing devil's advocate
Intellicast says Austin will be back around or over 100 degrees for at least another week beginning this Sunday, with a 10-day chance of rain 0%.
Thank you, Levi. Your tidbits help make sense of these tropical systems to the layman.
In case you missed it:
Link
I have family that live in central Texas and have been through both cities hundreds of times. The other day I wanted to post on here and say that the picture is as real as it gets but had to wait 24 hours for my first post.
and really not trying to make light of it...but just pictured Gomer Pyle from Andy Griffith show on a surf board yelling...."citizens arrest...citizens arrest" as he took the rods...sorry... :)
I don't see why there was a problem with the photo's authenticity. Looks like more smoke than you'd expect from a wildfire, but that's no reason to doubt it.
Pretty simple, you're a thief and if the guy was smart he would have called the sheriff and had you arrested. Instead of moving down the beach yourself you confronted the guy and then committed a crime, you should be in jail. Honestly if I had done something so stupid I wouldn't have posted it on a blog, this act says a lot about your character or lack of.
SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 07/1500Z
D. 20.5N 92.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
That's pronounced "Arreyust" :)
Surface circulation confirmed. Looks to be tracking N/NE.
Link
Close to shore though, going to have to move a bit before it can fire convection good.
Hugo was my first as well...never want to see anything like that again...i wasn't home alone, i had my (now oldest son) baby 9 months old with me...yeah...that was a heck of a ride
snicker snicker...you saw the episode...yeah...poor Barney...roflmbo
As my dad(who fishes) would say... "there would be two hits, me hitting him and him hitting the floor"...LOL!!!
2.5 but they were real good ones I assure you
: )
Lol! That's the first time I've heard that one.
we fish pretty much every weekend (tide time permitting with a 7 year old). we have taught our kids you only fish where you are supposed to and not near where people are playing in the water...not just for sharks sake, but hooks...if i was fishing in an area that i shouldn't be...i would expect someone to flip out and do something...but that is just the way I was raised I guess...Daddy always said...if you go lookin for trouble, don't come crying to me when you get yourself hurt
Katia, Maria, Nate Soon!! Video!!
Good one! I fish too and have met more than a few rude surfers. If one ever tried to touch my fishing poles valued at over a $100 a piece I can guarantee they wouldn't get too far before agreeing to pay for them or I turned them over to the proper authorities.
My grandfather was a Drill Sargent in the Army and that man was unreal(and tough), he went through 6 heart attack and 4 strokes. For my dad, to me, it seemed like he was raised in Italian (from the Hill in St Louis) boot camp. LOL!
Correct and I will post some more images very soon
More of the fact that the water is so warm vs the air temp being cooler (not really that cool) it's causing the cumulus clouds
Tigger you're only hearing one side of the story. I'm betting that there were no signs that banned fishing in the area. Also if you think about people who fish get to the beach early, usually around sunrise. Surfers on the other hand arrive a little later when the surf starts to kick up more. I've had surfers walk down to the beach I'm setup on and decide to paddle out not 20 yards to my left or right and then decide to paddle right over my lines in a lot of cases hitting them. I'm also believe that anybody willing to steal is not telling the whole story.
Yeah i know it is strange we had a low of 52 degrees at my house last night, which i believe is a record low for this time of year!!
No it's the air lol. 1-2C above normal water in the Gulf of Mexico isn't historic. It happens all the time during warm AMOs.
This is 12-15C below normal temperatures in the southern United States during the summer, and that is significant.
lol, that air aint cold!!
I just wrote a blog all about it if you want to read it.
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