Little change in strength for Nate and Maria
This afternoon's observations from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft show that Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche has changed little this afternoon. The 4:10 pm EDT center fix found Nate's central pressure remaining near-steady at 998 mb, and winds were near 50 mph at the surface. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate is having trouble with the dry air to its north, which is getting wrapped into the circulation and interfering with intensification, and the intensity of Nate's thunderstorms has decreased since early this morning. Since the storm is nearly stationary, it is upwelling cooler waters from the depths that are also slowing intensification.
Wind shear remains low, near 5 knots, so once Nate manages to wall off the dry air to its north, steady intensification should occur. The 5 pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast gives Nate a 42% chance of being a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday, and 6% chance of being Category 2 or stronger. Nate probably has time to intensify to a strong Category 1 hurricane before making landfall Sunday. The main hazard to Mexico will be very heavy rains that will cause flash flooding and mudslides. The computer models continue to agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in to the north of Nate over the next few days, forcing the storm westward or southwestward to a landfall in Mexico between Tuxpam de Rodriguez Cano and Veracruz. Nate is too far south to be turned northwards towards Louisiana, as some model runs were suggesting yesterday.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain over the weekend from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Figure 2. Water temperatures at buoy 42055 in the Bay of Campeche, about 150 miles northwest of the center of Nate, have declined steadily over the past few days due to the mixing action from Nate's winds. Image credit: National Data Buoy Center.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is not changing much in intensity it bears down on the Lesser Antilles Islands. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since this morning, but satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from this morning, and support classifying Maria as a tropical storm with 45 - 50 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Maria's heavy thunderstorms decreased in areal coverage and intensity since this morning, but the cloud pattern is more organized now. Maria is slowly developing spiral bands in all quadrants, and the storm has an obvious spin to it that was not apparent earlier in its life. Wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and Maria is taking advantage of the lower shear and getting more organized. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are now affecting the islands, and the pattern has more rotation to it than it did this morning. The thunderstorms are not yet well-organized into spiral bands, though.
The intensity forecast models predict steady strengthening for Maria, and I think likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds in the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and develop into a Category 1 hurricane shortly after pulling away from Puerto Rico on Sunday morning. Assuming that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico stay on the weaker left side of the storm, winds in those islands should be at least 15 mph less than the peak winds of the storm--so, in the 30 - 40 mph range. Islands on the right side of the storm, such as Anguilla and Barbuda, will see the full force of the storm, with winds of 45 - 55 mph. The northeastern portion of the Dominican Republic should get heavy rains from Maria, but not tropical storm-force winds. It now appears likely that the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas will miss seeing the core of Maria, but they are still in the cone of uncertainty, and cannot count on this yet. The reliable ECMWF model has now joined the other models in predicting that Maria will get caught up by a trough of low pressure early next week and turned northwards between Bermuda and U.S. East Coast. This has been the usual pattern this hurricane season, and we can now have moderate confidence that Maria will miss hitting the U.S., given the high degree of model agreement on this. A threat to southeast Newfoundland in Canada is possible for late next week, though.
I'll have an update late Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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it is funny. I saw it as soon as you called it to our attention!
You know Maria has not yet moved across 15N all this week... it has not gained any real latitude at all.... and all the models are now in agreement it is going to turn sharply north west very soon!
Interesting.. I know it will ...
but just saying....
needs to start inching a little northward..
E. Penguin
You seem to have bad luck with "C" storms!
We'll have to watch it closely, because any storm there would not move out to sea, and not be forced westward into Mexico. It would go into the Southeastern United States.
Giving us the final score at halftime, are you? I'd knock on wood if I were you.
LEE? Not again!
Maria will miss Florida and you wishcasters will all be wrong again.
On the last blog someone said Maria was going to go WNW more or less for up to 2 days at 14 mph, I asked how far the center would be in about 30 hours {using the more or less scale,} as this equaled 420 miles.
I agree with you that this Maria as not gone at all very much north as of yet and so when does the turn occur.
As Margaret Thatcher said many years ago, U turn if U want to, the lady's not for turning!
Oh we all think its a parrot as well!
Its low-level circulation is very vigorous, nobody can deny that.
E. Platypus
E: looks more like a Gerbil or Hamster to me :)
The Cascadia subduction zone can produce very large earthquakes ("megathrust earthquakes"), magnitude 9.0 or greater, if rupture occurs over its whole area. When the "locked" zone stores up energy for an earthquake, the "transition" zone, although somewhat plastic, can rupture. Great Subduction Zone earthquakes are the largest earthquakes in the world, and can exceed magnitude 9.0.
Earthquake size is proportional to fault area, and the Cascadia Subduction Zone is a very long sloping fault that stretches from mid-Vancouver Island to Northern California. It separates the Juan de Fuca and North American plates.
Because of the very large fault area, the Cascadia Subduction Zone could produce a very large earthquake. Thermal and deformation studies indicate that the locked zone is fully locked for 60 kilometers (about 40 miles) downdip from the deformation front...
LinktoWiki
The last known great earthquake in the northwest was in January 1700, the Cascadia Earthquake. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes may have occurred at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of 300 to 600 years. There is also evidence of accompanying tsunamis with every earthquake, and one line of evidence for these earthquakes is tsunami damage, and through Japanese records of tsunamis.[10]
The next rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone is anticipated to be capable of causing widespread destruction throughout the Pacific Northwest.[citation needed]
Other similar subduction zones in the world usually have such earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval here may indicate unusually large stress buildup and subsequent unusually large earthquake slip.[citation needed]
It's been that kind of year climatologically; why not expect the worst?
Parrot...6
Trout....1
Penguin..1(write-in vote)....good one imo
ECMWF shows a massive area of low pressure, also in the west caribbean, but I wouldn't call it a storm.
I agree we'll have to watch over the Caribbean starting next weekend, especially given the fact that SSTs and TCHP over the western Caribbean have gone mostly untouched this year.
It could also be that some atmospheric phenomenon is causing a different reduction factor this year in our tropical systems. Just a thought.
Maybe Nate's just waiting for dmax? idk.
Parrot...6
Trout....1
Penguin..1(write-in vote)....good one imo
Platypus.1(write-in vote)
Slug.....1
Gerbil...1
Dog-poo..1
After careful study.
.
I have to invalidate slug, gerbil, and dog poo...as these are not birds.
another for trout.
Looks like maybe she's having a nervous breakdown.
ROFL
Its the lack of vertical instability across the Atlantic basin this season.
Thats a classic. LOL
What about Trout?
Link
I was thinking that but definitely not well enough versed in atmospheric science to be able to defend that...
That's not nice! She's just a little behind the learning "curve". See what I just did there?
Maria sure is a strange looking storm.
Meanwhile as a footnote I cant help but notice that there has been an earthquake of notable proportions at both ends{so to speak/write} of the western north American plate junction, ie Vancouver island and Panama area.
Lets just hope at least that this isn't a foretaste of something nasty.
Blog well blogers, until sunrise over the Atlantic tomorrow. Will Maria finally turn North?
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