Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:15 GMT le 11 septembre 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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1025. FrankZapper
23:19 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting belizeit:
The Blogg is dead CPR needed
Everybody banned. I hope the sticklers are happy.
Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1024. FrankZapper
23:16 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
I think those of us living on the Northern GOM are getting near the end of the risk this year for a strong hurricane hit. Fronts are coming, high pressure with dry air is building, SSTs are falling. WHO DAT!
Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1021. aspectre
14:10 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
1013 Drakoen "Maria under some heavy-duty shear. LLC completely exposed and racing off to the west."

THANKS, with a plus. Was wondering about that weirdly sharp turn. Tracing NHCwebsite coordinates often produce such results, but the ATCF's (now, almost) always produce far less of an angled departure from the previous headings.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1020. MrstormX
14:08 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 27 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
1019. taistelutipu
14:06 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting aspectre:
1002 AussieStorm "Did I miss something here?"

Except some wild*conspiracy theories, a LOT less than would be surmised from the number and vehemence of comments.
FlaDewey and P451 probably got a short time-out for constantly posting pictures of a banned poster: one with the shower curtains, and the other an airplane photoshop. Since there was no purpose to those postings other than to irritate fellow WUbers and the blog moderator...

* Y'all ought to be ashamed of yourselves; especially aquak9 who came up with a doozy that involves a regular poster who wouldn't even have the time what with the aftermath of Irene.


Thanks for the summary on recent events in the blogsphere. I wasn't on for a few days.

Meanwhile, stations in Ireland are recording higher gusts than this morning, Malin Head now being in the lead. I wonder what this means for Wales and my location. We've had gale force winds since Saturday and I wonder when it'll calm down eventually.
Member Since: 20 août 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 639
1018. AussieStorm
14:02 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting aspectre:
1002 AussieStorm "Did I miss something here?"

Except some wild*conspiracy theories, a LOT less than would be surmised from the number and vehemence of comments.
FlaDewey and P451 probably got a short time-out for constantly posting pictures of a banned poster: one with the shower curtains, and the other an airplane photoshop. Since there was no purpose to those postings other than to irritate fellow WUbers...

* Y'all ought to be ashamed of yourselves; especially aquak9 who came up with a doozy that involves a regular poster who wouldn't even have time what with the aftermath of Irene.


Thanks for the info, I did those images. I didn't see what Aquak9 did, care to fill me in via WU-mail?







Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1017. CaicosRetiredSailor
14:01 GMT le 12 septembre 2011


Looks like a naked Maria swirling toward me.
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
1016. STLweatherjunkie
14:01 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
I think in all my years, this is probably the least "exciting" hurricane season I have ever witnessed. There have been record amounts of storms, but most were just marginal tropical storms that could barely even maintain any form of convection. Do you all realize we have only had 2 hurricanes this entire season? 2, that ties the basin record for the least amount of hurricanes, in the satellite era. There has been no instability basically all season, and now looking at the SSTs the GOM looks like it is in late fall form already, on top of that CV season is pretty much over.

Now bear in mind I am not complaining because x, y, and z were not "hit" this year; or because Florida wasn't struck with anything, NO. I am simply saying that this season is simply boring, I appreciate tropical cyclones...but this year, the storms have just not been to exciting to track or even to look at.

the season is half over, want to bet we see an above average number of hurricanes by the end of the season? Instability has been below average and wind shear has been above average which seems to favor weak storms, but at least we are getting storms to watch ... However, I am very curious where you got the idea that the GOM SSts were fall-like ... and CV season is over? Maria was a CV storm ... its september?
Member Since: 9 septembre 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
1015. hookedontropics
13:57 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
funny how I post something on here and then 15 minutes later someone says the exact same thing! haha
Member Since: 25 août 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
1014. belizeit
13:56 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
The Blogg is dead CPR needed
Member Since: 10 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
1013. Drakoen
13:49 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Maria under some heavy-duty shear. LLC completely exposed and racing off to the west.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
1011. Fishaholic25fl
13:43 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
is maria weakening.................
Member Since: 22 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
1008. islander101010
13:31 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
snowbirds coming to florida? maybe. so are the homeless. last yr the owners of the woods in the back had pitbulls chasing them out of their camps good luck to them
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4352
1006. hookedontropics
13:27 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
might have a cutoff low off of the east coast? Looks like some very strong convection for this time of day
Member Since: 25 août 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
1005. hookedontropics
13:26 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Link

Looks like she is moving due west and has some convection firing around LLC. Shear destroyed her! Way south of forecast points.. Can't wait for Masters' update and comments
Member Since: 25 août 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
1004. weatherh98
13:25 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did I miss something here?

One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do.



Poor old Maria, all alone in the ATL. Have we hit our mid-season lull?


yes waiting for mjo to return the models havethe tropics exploding though in a week or so
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1003. aspectre
13:24 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Methinks corrections will be made on the next ATCF.

TS.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 11Sept_12pmGMT and ending 12Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 31.371n81.294w-08GA is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 10.8mph(17.4k/h) on a heading of 276.2degrees(W)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over GreatInagua,Bahamas ~1day11hours from now

Copy&paste 31.371n81.294w-08ga, 19.0n64.0w-19.6n64.9w, 19.6n64.9w-20.0n65.4w, 20.0n65.4w-20.5n66.0w, 20.5n66.0w-20.6n67.0w, iga, 20.5n66.0w-21.079n73.101w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 12Sept_6amGMT)
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1002. AussieStorm
13:22 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting islander101010:
stormw and now p541 r.i.p. blog heaven

Did I miss something here?

One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do.



Poor old Maria, all alone in the ATL. Have we hit our mid-season lull?
Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1001. wayfaringstranger
13:20 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Good morning all. I apologize for being out of the loop but what is the model confidence on the track for Maria? Are all the dynamic models in agreement?

Member Since: 12 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
1000. 996tt
13:20 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't start talking about it yet...Florida may have visitors by the end of the month...And, we aren't through with hurricane season quite yet. I predict Ophelia will be a Cape verde hurricane, reaching major hurricane status. I also believe Philippe will be a hurricane, but from Western Caribbean origins, right into Florida.

Bold prediction, Morning all :)


Prediction about Caribbean . . . Right now, anything in Caribbean is being swept due west quickly. There is a wave at this very moment that is being swept west into Pacific without any chance of developing. Same thing happened with Nate and now the west pull seems even more pronounced since Nate first started trying to organize. Don't see how anything will come from this area into the GOM with fronts set up the way they are.
Member Since: 5 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
999. 996tt
13:15 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Tropical wave in Caribbean going due west into Pacific, so what Levi was seeing as a Caribbean storm may just be swept out quickly into Yucatan and Pacific. Don't see how anything can possibly develop in Caribbean that makes it into the Northern GOM or GOM for that matter.
Member Since: 5 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
998. islander101010
13:10 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
stormw and now p541 r.i.p. blog heaven
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4352
997. CaicosRetiredSailor
13:06 GMT le 12 septembre 2011


Where is Maria's Centroid this morning?
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
996. weatherguy03
13:06 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
TS Maria...Watching The Western Caribbean Later This Week
Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29700
995. 7544
13:01 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
morning all loooks like maria trying to go more west today ?
Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
994. jpsb
12:59 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
that ties the basin record for the least amount of hurricanes, in the satellite era


I think a lot of the T.Cs we had this year would not have rated a name "back in the day". Which is one reason why comparisons with hurricane seasons prior to the "satellite era" are of questionable value, IMHO.
Member Since: 30 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
993. islander101010
12:56 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
so we are back to the question again? what are we going to do with all the nuck waist?
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4352
992. weaverwxman
12:50 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting islander101010:
guess we need a major heading for miami to make you all happy
bring it on wer'e ready...JK
I am happy with the season so far enough damage and death from IRENE, the sseason could stop now and have been bad enough.
Member Since: 17 novembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
991. Oxon
12:48 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Thank you for the advice, WxLogic
Member Since: 31 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
990. bassis
12:42 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Member Since: 8 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
989. islander101010
12:40 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
guess we need a major heading for miami to make you all happy
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4352
988. scooster67
12:36 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Maria - Piece of garbage storm.

Next please.
cat5, That should be a new catagory for storms.

POG's :)
Member Since: 26 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
987. bassis
12:35 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Link
Member Since: 8 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
986. bassis
12:33 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting leelee75k:
looks like Maria wants to be a naked swirl and if I'm tracking her center correctly, then she is slightly WNW of the trop forecast points.

I would agree with that. Looks like her naked swirl will miss them by quite a bit
Member Since: 8 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
985. HurricaneDevo
12:30 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Look near 67W, 20.7N.


I don't think those coordinates are on that map?
Member Since: 19 avril 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
984. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:27 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
983. leelee75k
12:19 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
looks like Maria wants to be a naked swirl and if I'm tracking her center correctly, then she is slightly WNW of the trop forecast points.
Member Since: 9 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
982. PensacolaDoug
12:14 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Exposed LLC. What a surprise.
Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
981. Neapolitan
12:14 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
I don't believe we'll get to the end of the season with no further hurricanes, but it sure would be fascinating if we did. I like tracking Cat 5s over open water as much as the next person--raw power, and all that--but imagine if this season were to finish at, say, 22-2-2. Imagine how intently the season would be studied for years to come; imagine how much useful information forecasters would learn; imagine how much more tropical mets would know about shear, and dust, and the effects of drought on cyclogenesis. For me, while there's little that gets my adrenaline going like a hurricane warning, the "fascination" of TCs comes as much from what doesn't develop as what does.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13463
980. WxLogic
12:09 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Shear has been making it quite difficult for Maria to get better organized:

Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4934
979. WxLogic
12:07 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

LLC of Maria is clear to be seen in this loop and it ain't moving NW!


Indeed... I do believe NAM (even though is not a tropical model) had a pretty good handle on this system.
Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4934
977. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:01 GMT le 12 septembre 2011


Look near 67W, 20.7N.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31519
976. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:00 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

LLC of Maria is clear to be seen in this loop and it ain't moving NW!


Not really moving at all.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31519
975. stoormfury
12:00 GMT le 12 septembre 2011
a fairly decent tropical wave approaching the antilles. there is some cyclonic turning near 12n 50w. but organisation is being hampered by the outflow from maria and an ull to the north.
Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2623

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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