Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:15 GMT le 11 septembre 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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The 00Z GFS run at 36 hours showing the trough beginning to capture Maria. She is heading NNW now near 23N 69.5W

Maria's strengthening has paused.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z GFS run at 24 hours shows Maria at around 21.5N 69W and a little stronger. Ridge to the north definitely buckling.





cool
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
I'm looking at both the raleighwx and ncep graphics. I like the raleigh graphics better, they show the ridge hieghts and are less 'busy' But can't post images from there.
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The 00Z GFS run at 24 hours shows Maria at around 21.5N 69W and a little stronger. Ridge to the north definitely buckling.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
At 12 hours the 00Z GFS run has Maria at 21N 67W at the same strength. Ridge to the north beginning to erode.


i dont think that first ridge will effect her a lot
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819. SXMFL
Really really bad storm in St Martin right now, constant lightning and thunder. Never have seen lightning like this in my life, and I'm from Florida.non stop lightning.
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818. jpsb
Quoting MZT:
They're forecasting a 970 MB low to cross northern Scotland


Katia! Have fun with her.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The graphics I am looking at have the tropical Atlantic and the eastern half of the USA Taz. Sorry.



thats ok
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
The graphics I am looking at have the tropical Atlantic and the eastern half of the USA Taz. Sorry.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
At 12 hours the 00Z GFS run has Maria at 21N 67W at the same strength. Ridge to the north beginning to erode.



can you all so tell me what CA has on the gfs
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
At 12 hours the 00Z GFS run has Maria at 21N 67W at the same strength. Ridge to the north beginning to erode.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Looks like Maria is the only game in town, at least for a few days.

*wakes up next morning*

...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...

LOL.


LOL
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Quoting wxgeek723:


A category 5 fish storm hasn't happened in the Atlantic in a long time.


yes because if I said just a Cat 5 you might think Im crazy
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That's insane.


This is Houston, they haven't replaced jerry-rigged traffic lights from Ike yet. Nearly every one on the south side of town looks like it's been thrown to the ground once or twice, missing a lens, or something. The streets around here are worse than Post-War Berlin's.

Grr... Ok, rant's over with.

In other news, the NAM and GFS give us a little chance of rain. :)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The curtain rises.....


00Z initial position for Maria just a touch too far west.




YAY the GFS started
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
.
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The curtain rises.....


00Z initial position for Maria just a touch too far west.

Environment north of Maria looks very 'ridgey' for now.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Taz, a visual for you :)




thanks
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting Tazmanian:


ok


Taz, a visual for you :)

Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Not yet Taz, should start in a few minutes.


ok
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
We have a lightning every 10s lol
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I'm really enjoying the rain :)
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Not yet Taz, should start in a few minutes.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


No idea, it's been dribbling across the street for a while now, must not be big enough to warrant an immediate repair.


That's insane.
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has mode runs started BaltimoreBrian?
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
796. JLPR2
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


There is no way ya'll are gonna miss all that rain, hope you get it if you need it (less the wind)...Looks like Pottery has seen some rain from Maria.


We got enough rain with Irene, would gladly donate it to anyone who needs it. :)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Two weeks?! What? How much water has been wasted by that?




No idea, it's been dribbling across the street for a while now, must not be big enough to warrant an immediate repair.
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Two weeks?! What? How much water has been wasted by that?


Quoting nofailsafe:


Most of our reservoirs are ok, some of them are unhappily low any rain we get later in the year (assuming we get any at all) will help remediate the losses (somewhat, er, maybe.)

Houston right now has to deal with broken water mains (there's one over on Bissonnet and Kirby that's been broken for at least two weeks, they've got a little barricade over the break and everything, still going. Oh, by the way, three days is the theoretical maximum before a break must be repaired.)
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Quoting JLPR2:


I'm still expecting rain from Maria. Taps finger on Laptop.

When is that storm coming? XD

But seriously, once it moves to the NW of PR that line of convection to PR's east should affect us.


There is no way ya'll are gonna miss all that rain, hope you get it if you need it (less the wind)...Looks like Pottery has seen some rain from Maria.
Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting SubtropicalHi:



Canyon is doing OK. Dock/boat launch areas are dry in most lakes, but most have water in the them.



Good to know. I hope you get some good rains this winter. Maybe not like Dec 1991 or Oct 1998 but enough to bring it to full pool.
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Looks like Maria is the only game in town, at least for a few days.

*wakes up next morning*

...EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...

LOL.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Most Lakes are just low, some of the smaller Lakes have dried up but the bigger Lakes have water but they are being drained by all the fires.


Most of our reservoirs are ok, some of them are unhappily low any rain we get later in the year (assuming we get any at all) will help remediate the losses (somewhat, er, maybe.)

Houston right now has to deal with broken water mains (there's one over on Bissonnet and Kirby that's been broken for at least two weeks, they've got a little barricade over the break and everything, still going. Oh, by the way, three days is the theoretical maximum before a break must be repaired.)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Has there ever even being one? O.o


I believe the most recent one was Cleo in 1958.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
CharlotteFL that graphic makes me wonder if Maria will sneak over to 72 or 73W , and not stay east of 70W like the NHC discussion says.

From 11 p.m. discussion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.5N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.5N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.7N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 50.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


Well it's possible. I see the trough they're expecting to weaken the ridge. It's gonna have to amplify some more in order to erode that high, just have to wait and see.
Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I hope you do get good rains starting very soon. Like tomorrow.

What are the lakes there like, Canyon Lake and Possum Kingdom? Are they dried up or do they still have some water in them?



Canyon is doing OK. Dock/boat launch areas are dry in most lakes, but most have water in the them.

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785. JLPR2
Quoting wxgeek723:


A category 5 fish storm hasn't happened in the Atlantic in a long time.


Has there ever even being one? O.o
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784. JLPR2
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I'm still expecting rain from Maria. Taps finger on Laptop.

When is that storm coming? XD

But seriously, once it moves to the NW of PR that line of convection to PR's east should affect us.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
She needs this past week to be a do over so her mother my ex and her younger sister dont lose everything without insurance plus most of her friends. I am helping them as much as I can but I am retired. Sometimes I wish I was very wealthy so I could help alot of less fortunate people.
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Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Well, the Cape Verde season might be ending... now we passed the peak of the season....
I think it will turn out to be like last year when many storms like Paula and Richard threatening the Gulf cities, Yucatan Pen., Cuba and the Central American Countries.
I miss the cat 5 canes .... (as fish storms)


A category 5 fish storm hasn't happened in the Atlantic in a long time.
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Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Yeah, I see it too. If that high doesn't break down any more, it's nose is standing firmly in the way of any real northerly progression.

Still, the forecast is for the high to relax, so I guess we'll see.


Didn't say it wasn't going to , but they have it heading NW almost immediately. Definitely interesting.
Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I hope you do get good rains starting very soon. Like tomorrow.

What are the lakes there like, Canyon Lake and Possum Kingdom? Are they dried up or do they still have some water in them?
Most Lakes are just low, some of the smaller Lakes have dried up but the bigger Lakes have water but they are being drained by all the fires.
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Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
Quoting twincomanche:
Wouldn't it be nice if they would respect us enough to give some kind of a explanation?


they only give that info to the ones that are banned
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CharlotteFL that graphic makes me wonder if Maria will sneak over to 72 or 73W , and not stay east of 70W like the NHC discussion says.

From 11 p.m. discussion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.5N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.5N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 40.7N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 50.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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