Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Methurricanes:
if the blog was around back then trolls would be asking if the burning towers were pumping the ridge.

Weird on sat pics that day.. They kept cutting Erin out of the pic he was right off shore from all that.. Something else that I noted that morning before it all went down was Erin wasn't on the national GMA type maps.. wasn't the only that noticed there's more here with other oddities.



Definitely not pumping ridge..

Levi, don't you think with the current set up that if a wave does form it will either track into the Yucatan or north east OTS? I know it is far away, but right now with this current pattern

Quoting FrankZapper:
Thanks for the answers.

Now I propose a possible answer. Could some entity, probably the USA, be trying a new hurricane modification program using a new supereyewall disruptor molecule. I have noticed that eyewalls have been very anemic looking, fragmented, even absent this year.

Maybe you have been watching a few too many sci-fi movies?

Levi, and the models also develop a wave that emerges Africa. When would be the timeframe for that?

Quoting FrankZapper:
Thanks for the answers.

Now I propose a possible answer. Could some entity, probably the USA, be trying a new hurricane modification program using a new supereyewall disruptor molecule. I have noticed that eyewalls have been very anemic looking, fragmented, even absent this year.

If they are it is working. I guess we will know if the pattern persists for a few more years.

Quoting FrankZapper:
Thanks for the answers.

Now I propose a possible answer. Could some entity, probably the USA, be trying a new hurricane modification program using a new supereyewall disruptor molecule. I have noticed that eyewalls have been very anemic looking, fragmented, even absent this year.

lol, no.

Quoting nemotin:
Levi, when do you graduate and what do you plan to do after undergrade?

2-3 years, then hopefully grad school for a met degree.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, and the models also develop a wave that emerges Africa. When would be the timeframe for that?

GFS says about 5 days.

Quoting Levi32:


Its only two choices are likely going to be west into Central America or north into the eastern gulf, Florida, or Bahamas. Right now north seems more likely, but that doesn't mean other doors are closed yet.

As we saw with Nate. I was in the northern Gulf coast bandwagon too, lol.

It's kinda wrong that today they have the Giants and Red Skins playing today.On 9/11/11.Both of our city's were under attack.Why couldn't this game take hold on another day?

Quoting Levi32:


2-3 years, then hopefully grad school for a met degree.

What do you want to research in grad and what school do you want to go to?

If you're sad on this day, just remember, Bin Laden is dead!


Find it surprising how Maria asks so many questions......

Hope I don't get banned for my rant.

297. That was one of the most dumb a.. things you or anyone else could have said, especially on a day like this. Sept. 11, 2001 changed the World we live in. We lost alot of freedom that day. Many innocent people lost their lives. For each life lost, dozens of others lives were affected changed for ever. I lost two (2) family members that day. My Uncle and Cousin both dies trying to save others. They worked for the FDNY. Ironically my Uncle just got off duty and hopped on the truck as it was leaving to help out.

I also attended 14 funerals in NYC and Long Island of fallen Firefighters. That sucked.

Don't do it often, but to you.

And shame on those who laughed along with him

Thank you Levi for the detailed explanation. I always keep an eye on this area after the "chart" starts it's downhill slide...I'll watch the area extra carefully in the next week.
.
And thanks Skye for 331...lol
I couldn't agree more.
This is an automatic nomination for post of the year.

Quoting Skyepony:


Weird on sat pics that day.. They kept cutting Erin out of the pic he was right off shore from all that.. Something else that I noted that morning before it all went down was Erin wasn't on the national GMA type maps.. wasn't the only that noticed there's more here with other oddities.

If that storm was 200-250 miles west the flights wouldnt have been able to take off... God works in mysterious ways.

Quoting emcf30:
Hope I don't get banned for my rant.

297. That was one of the most dumb a.. things you or anyone else could have said, especially on a day like this. Sept. 11, 2001 changed the World we live in. We lost alot of freedom that day. Many innocent people lost their lives. For each life lost, dozens of others lives were affected changed for ever. I lost two (2) family members that day. My Uncle and Cousin both dies trying to save others. They worked for the FDNY. Ironically my Uncle just got off duty and hopped on the truck as it was leaving to help out.

I also attended 14 funerals in NYC and Long Island of fallen Firefighters. That sucked.

Don't do it often, but to you.

And shame on those who laughed along with him

I am sorry for your loss and the looses that others suffered as well.

Sometimes you just really don't know what else to say... :(

I gotta tellya, looks like at least Provo's going to get some fringes - goodly fringes - from this baby as she blows on by..... wishing I was seeing that Nward component right now...



If nothing else the rest of the SE Bahamas looks set to get some rain from Maria.

MARIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRLS HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EXPOSED MEAN CIRCULATION
CENTER. POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE A BIT SCATTERED AS THEY FIXED THE
DIFFERENT SWIRLS DURING THE FLIGHT....
...

THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ESTIMATE...WHICH REQUIRED A SLIGHT RELOCATION.
SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/9 KT. MARIA SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


aha the centroid...
Maria gives us something new to look for

Quoting Levi32:
Otherwise, as we get into October the tropical potential for Texas lessens, and since the state is probably in for another mild, dry winter, it may be quite a while before Texas gets significant rain, unfortunately.

I'm just hoping our reservoirs hold out for drinking water and for cooling power stations. If power stations end up going offline next summer, or this winter, we may have a very big problem ahead of us.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

MARIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRLS HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EXPOSED MEAN CIRCULATION
CENTER. POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE A BIT SCATTERED AS THEY FIXED THE
DIFFERENT SWIRLS DURING THE FLIGHT....
...

THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ESTIMATE...WHICH REQUIRED A SLIGHT RELOCATION.
SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/9 KT. MARIA SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


aha the centroid...
Maria gives us something new to look for

ok i give up what does that mean

Quoting washingtonian115:
It's kinda wrong that today they have the Giants and Red Skins playing today.On 9/11/11.Both of our city's were under attack.Why couldn't this game take hold on another day?

Please stop complaining..
Link

the entire article in the link..terroism is not about the loss of life but the disruption of life..

WASHINGTON D.C. -- They, too, will never forget.

On Sunday afternoon, the Washington Redskins and New York Giants participated in a touching pregame ceremony at FedEx Field to honor the 10th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks.

About five minutes before kickoff, 150 family members affected by the terrorist attacks unfurled an American flag which stretched from sideline to sideline during the national anthem.

Minutes earlier, General Colin Powell, former U.S. Secretary of State, served as the Redskins' honorary captain for the pregame coin toss.

Players and coaches from both teams also honored the anniversary of the attacks with special uniform attire on Sunday.

The Giants and Redskins, along with all other NFL players active on Sunday, played with a patch on their jerseys featuring a ribbon with stars and stripes along with the dates "9/11/01" and "9/11/11." Coaches, personnel and staff wore pins featuring a similar ribbon.

Quoting nofailsafe:


I'm just hoping our reservoirs hold out for drinking water and for cooling power stations. If power stations end up going offline next summer, or this winter, we may have a very big problem ahead of us.

oh gosh...don't say that.

what is making that high stay over us for so long?

I hope it changes soon.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta tellya, looks like at least Provo's going to get some fringes - goodly fringes - from this baby as she blows on by..... wishing I was seeing that Nward component right now...



If nothing else the rest of the SE Bahamas looks set to get some rain from Maria.

‎5 pm Maria forecast Results for Provo, TCI (21.78N, 72.27W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 23.3N, 68.9W or about 236.5 miles (380.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 15 hours and 4 minutes from now (Tuesday, September 13 at 8:54AM AST).

................

I am happy to see Maria back to being almost 240 miles distance to center at closest forecast point

Quoting emcf30:
Hope I don't get banned for my rant.

297. That was one of the most dumb a.. things you or anyone else could have said, especially on a day like this. Sept. 11, 2001 changed the World we live in. We lost alot of freedom that day. Many innocent people lost their lives. For each life lost, dozens of others lives were affected changed for ever. I lost two (2) family members that day. My Uncle and Cousin both dies trying to save others. They worked for the FDNY. Ironically my Uncle just got off duty and hopped on the truck as it was leaving to help out.

I also attended 14 funerals in NYC and Long Island of fallen Firefighters. That sucked.

Don't do it often, but to you.

And shame on those who laughed along with him

Sorry for your loss..and yes shame on those who thought that was funny..

Pss... Psss.... Hey.... Maria.. You have to decide what you are going to do... Move!!!

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

MARIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SWIRLS HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EXPOSED MEAN CIRCULATION
CENTER. POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE A BIT SCATTERED AS THEY FIXED THE
DIFFERENT SWIRLS DURING THE FLIGHT....
...

THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ESTIMATE...WHICH REQUIRED A SLIGHT RELOCATION.
SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/9 KT. MARIA SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


aha the centroid...
Maria gives us something new to look for

lol

Quoting 7544:


ok i give up what does that mean

from wikipedia

Centroid

In geometry, the centroid, geometric center, or barycenter of a plane figure or two-dimensional shape X is the intersection of all straight lines that divide X into two parts of equal moment about the line. Informally, it is the "average" (arithmetic mean) of all points of X. The definition extends to any object X in n-dimensional space: its centroid is the intersection of all hyperplanes that divide X into two parts of equal moment.

In physics, the word centroid means the geometric center of the object's shape, as above, but barycenter may also mean its physical center of mass or the center of gravity, depending on the context. Informally, the center of mass (and center of gravity in a uniform gravitational field) is the average of all points, weighted by the local density or specific weight. If a physical object has uniform density, then its center of mass is the same as the centroid of its shape.

In geography, the centroid of a region of the Earth's surface, projected radially onto said surface, is known as its geographical center.

Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh gosh...don't say that.

what is making that high stay over us for so long?

I hope it changes soon.

As far as I know, it's because the jet stream is so far north this year so our ridge is stuck. I think the reason for the jet stream being so far north this summer is La Nina.

"During La Niña the jet stream extends from the central Rockies east- northeastward to the eastern Great Lakes. Thus severe weather is likely to be further north and west during La Niña than El Niño."

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

Interesting note, so there's also a really terrible drought over in Somalia, the 'worst in 60 years.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Horn_of_Africa_ drought

Quoting ncstorm:


Please stop complaining..
Link

the entire article in the link..terroism is not about the loss of life but the disruption of life..

WASHINGTON D.C. -- They, too, will never forget.

On Sunday afternoon, the Washington Redskins and New York Giants participated in a touching pregame ceremony at FedEx Field to honor the 10th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks.

About five minutes before kickoff, 150 family members affected by the terrorist attacks unfurled an American flag which stretched from sideline to sideline during the national anthem.

Minutes earlier, General Colin Powell, former U.S. Secretary of State, served as the Redskins' honorary captain for the pregame coin toss.

Players and coaches from both teams also honored the anniversary of the attacks with special uniform attire on Sunday.

The Giants and Redskins, along with all other NFL players active on Sunday, played with a patch on their jerseys featuring a ribbon with stars and stripes along with the dates "9/11/01" and "9/11/11." Coaches, personnel and staff wore pins featuring a similar ribbon.

Everyone else can complain about something on the blog but I can't?.Free country.That's what our troops are fighting for.Including my two bothers who were sent over there.

Quoting nofailsafe:


I'm just hoping our reservoirs hold out for drinking water and for cooling power stations. If power stations end up going offline next summer, or this winter, we may have a very big problem ahead of us.

Suppose, however, this pattern continues for the next decade, or even half-decade? Suppose a repeat of the dustbowl for the great south? What are we supposed to do then?

It would be a very bad situation if we'd have to evacuate major cities from Texas because of a several year drought.

I always wondered about the climatology of the southwest. In the "real" southwest, (Arizona,New Mexico, Nevada) you have an annual supply of water from the Colorado and Sierra mountains, but in Texas, you don't have that luxury. Texas has five major cities (Houston, Dallas, Fort-Worth, Austin, Arlington ) and that makes them ill equipped to handle a large=scale drought without any major rivers running through Texas.

Quoting nofailsafe:


As far as I know, it's because the jet stream is so far north this year so our ridge is stuck. I think the reason for the jet stream being so far north this summer is La Nina.

"During La Niña the jet stream extends from the central Rockies east- northeastward to the eastern Great Lakes. Thus severe weather is likely to be further north and west during La Niña than El Niño."

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

Interesting note, so there's also a really terrible drought over in Somalia, the 'worst in 60 years.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Horn_of_Africa_ drought

oh ok. Well, that jet stream just needs to come further south. If only it would because I said so. sigh....

Quoting RussianWinter:

Suppose, however, this pattern continues for the next decade, or even half-decade? Suppose a repeat of the dustbowl for the great south? What are we supposed to do then?

It would be a very bad situation if we'd have to evacuate major cities from Texas because of a several year drought.

I always wondered about the climatology of the southwest. In the "real" southwest, (Arizona,New Mexico, Nevada) you have an annual supply of water from the Colorado and Sierra mountains, but in Texas, you don't have that luxury. Texas has five major cities (Houston, Dallas, Fort-Worth, Austin, Arlington ) and that makes them ill equipped to handle a large=scale drought without any major rivers running through Texas.

Maybe Texas may fully turn into a desert?

If I am not wrong, I believe the low-level circulation of Tropical Storm Maria is being sucked into that very deep convection located near 64W, 20-21N. That would result in faster organization than depicted.

Visible:



Water Vapor:



Infrared:

94W is new..

CosmicEvents~ Honored, thanks..

shadoclown45~ Never thought of it that way. Mark one for a 'cane ain't always a bad thing.

Maria really likes the night.

18Z NOGAPS

12z CMC

Nvr mind.

A little look at PR....a geography lesson for myself :)

Quoting RussianWinter:

Suppose, however, this pattern continues for the next decade, or even half-decade? Suppose a repeat of the dustbowl for the great south? What are we supposed to do then?

It would be a very bad situation if we'd have to evacuate major cities from Texas because of a several year drought.

I always wondered about the climatology of the southwest. In the "real" southwest, (Arizona,New Mexico, Nevada) you have an annual supply of water from the Colorado and Sierra mountains, but in Texas, you don't have that luxury. Texas has five major cities (Houston, Dallas, Fort-Worth, Austin, Arlington ) and that makes them ill equipped to handle a large=scale drought without any major rivers running through Texas.

That's something I've thought about, Texas has no natural stores of water spare its rivers and part of Caddo Lake, the rest of our reservoirs are from dammed rivers.

If that were to come to be the case, that would be very bad news indeed for quite a lot of people.

Oh, and San Antonio wouldn't be very fun to live in at all, can't forget about them.

El Paso neither.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Everyone else can complain about something on the blog but I can't?.Free country.That's what our troops are fighting for.Including my two bothers who were sent over there.

I don't think complaining is the issue. I personally, applaud the NFL. 10 years later, life goes on. Washington, is playing New York. The two cities you tried to destroy, are back, and better than ever. So, Al Qaeda... It didn't work... WE, are still here. New York will play Washington. And they will do it, on the anniversary, of your failed plan.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If I am not wrong, I believe the low-level circulation of Tropical Storm Maria is being sucked into that very deep convection located near 64W, 20-21N. That would result in faster organization than depicted.

Visible:



Water Vapor:



Infrared:

Its either being sucked in or the center has slowed down enough to let the convection re-build in towards the center?

Quoting nofailsafe:




Interesting note, so there's also a really terrible drought over in Somalia, the 'worst in 60 years.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Horn_of_Africa_ drought

Betcha the Somalia drought is for a similar reason.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe Texas may fully turn into a desert?

West Texas has been a desert forever. It swings back and forth in the central part of Texas. East Texas gets over 40 inches of rainfall on average. It's a big state.

Quoting EYEStoSEA:
A little look at PR....a geography lesson for myself :)

2 little details to enrich the map.

Did you know that the main airport of Puerto Rico, often called San Juan Intl Airport, isn't actually located in San Juan? It's in Carolina.

Also, Cerro Punta depicted in the image is 4,390 ft and is the highest peak of the island.

*Oh another one, Puerto Rico isn't actually an island, it's an archipelago.

Say goodnight Maria