Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:15 GMT le 11 septembre 2011

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Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scooster67:
Taz is a lot of fun. I think He has put me on his ignore list though. He never responds to me anymore. Ever since I criticized him a little one day.

Somebody re-post this for me so I can see if I am right.

Taz, Don't Ignore(Tase) me bro :)
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Quoting scooster67:
Taz is a lot of fun. I think He has put me on his ignore list though. He never responds to me anymore. Ever since I criticized him a little one day.

Somebody re-post this for me so I can see if I am right.

Taz, Don't Ignore(Tase) me bro :)

Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting Tazmanian:



am right here whats start the show lol


In about an hour and forty minutes Taz :)
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Quoting floodzonenc:
I have a question about the blog... IS it possible to change your username w/o creating a new account?

I ask b/c I've been a member for a few years, but I moved out of the "flood zone" last year (thank God).

Just wondering... TIA!


Nope, you're stuck with paying flood insurance forever.
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Quoting scooster67:
Taz is a lot of fun. I think He has put me on his ignore list though. He never responds to me anymore. Ever since I criticized him a little one day.

Somebody re-post this for me so I can see if I am right.

Taz, Don't Ignore(Tase) me bro :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm hoping Taz shows up later. We had fun going over the GFS model last week.
Taz is a lot of fun. I think He has put me on his ignore list though. He never responds to me anymore. Ever since I criticized him a little one day.

Somebody re-post this for me so I can see if I am right.

Taz, Don't Ignore(Tase) me bro :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


How can u tell if they are +'d


It shows right by the buttons...Don't you see it?
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm hoping Taz shows up later. We had fun going over the GFS model last week.



am right here whats start the show lol
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Quoting MZT:
They're forecasting a 970 MB low to cross northern Scotland



UK met office has a closed 960 mb isobar on their charts when Katia the Undead crosses the Orkney Islands.
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Quoting floodzonenc:
I have a question about the blog... IS it possible to change your username w/o creating a new account?

I ask b/c I've been a member for a few years, but I moved out of the "flood zone" last year (thank God).

Just wondering... TIA!


I've wondered the same thing, but I do not think so.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, who went back and +1'd every single post? :P


How can u tell if they are +'d
Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
lol, who went back and +1'd every single post? :P
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
660. MZT
They're forecasting a 970 MB low to cross northern Scotland


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im gonna go im sick-ish and school tomorrow
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Getting really tired of Maria...



Its not moved all day...
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting weatherh98:


yes sir uncle scooster


I knew you got it. LOL

It was unnerving when Gro was sick.
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someone went through and and +1 ed everything
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19.5n64.9w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12amGMT_ATCF
19.6n64.9w, 20.0n65.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 11Sept_12amGMT and ending 12Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the island blob at 25.09n76.12w-RSD is the endpoint of the straightline projection
on the most recent*previous*mapping
connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 8.8mph(14.2k/h) on a heading of 301.2degrees(WNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over SandyPoint,Abaco,Bahamas ~3days21hours from now
(though I wouldn't count on Maria to continue moving that slowly)

Copy&paste 25.09n76.12w-rsd, 18.0n62.6w-18.6n63.3w, 18.6n63.3w-19.0n64.0w, 19.0n64.0w-19.6n64.9w, 19.6n64.9w-20.0n65.6w, myas, 19.6n64.9w-25.885n77.186w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 11Sept_6pmGMT)

* Alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading -- in this case from slightly WNW (303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW) to slightly NW -- and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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653. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Getting really tired of Maria...



Yeah, it's just stuck there. :\
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I'm hoping Taz shows up later. We had fun going over the GFS model last week.
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Getting really tired of Maria...

Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting scooster67:


He did explain.

La Familia! We are Family up in this ...........


yes sir uncle scooster
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Quoting weatherh98:


explain why please


He did explain.

La Familia! We are Family up in this ...........
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS is showing one of two options that a western Caribbean system could take. This model run develops an area of low pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean, and brings it Northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Afterwards, a strong trough sweeps down and brings the storm into Florida as a hurricane. The other option, which seems less likely at this time, is that the storm continues westward into Mexico, without affecting the United States.

18Z GFS @ 384 hours:


surprised the system isnt a hurricane in the western carribean. its going to be moving slowly and if wind shear is good, it could be a wilma situation
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Quoting scooster67:
This set up has me a bit concerned for next week.




Other than the main concern that the heat will return to the SE and NE, yes a couple major hurricanes could hit the US.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


What about Irene from 1999? That something like that too?


Something like that, although I believe anything that formed would get into the Gulf of Mexico before turning.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting twincomanche:
You should care. We are all family on here as much bickering as happens.


oh kay gotcha yea and we really are it didnt feel good when gro was sick
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Lets not get too specific, lol...Whatever that forms won't be for another week at least. However, the pattern favors a track into Mexico, or a track into the Gulf Coast, primarily Florida. Wilma is a good analogue storm.


What about Irene from 1999? That something like that too?
Member Since: 21 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting Wxouttacontrol:
The following is a site that shows several models with a longer timeframe in the loops. it is the Penn State site .... Link
Thanks for the link. I'm not sure why I want to look at a model that far out. But I do :)
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Statement from UK met office at 2130Z

Stormy weather ahead for northern Britain

Post-tropical cyclone Katia continues to moves towards the UK, and is now 400 miles west of Ireland with a central pressure of 967 hPa. The system is still primed to bring very strong winds and heavy rain to northern Britain on Monday. Keep an eye on the latest warnings using the link below. Issued at 2130 on Sun 11 Sep 2011.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Well you have 384 hours to prepare. I think you will be okay.
Lol yah but im not sure if i can take time to drive down there and bord it up if this model turns out to be true :/.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yah sounds about right XD.

lol
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting twincomanche:
You should care.


explain why please
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Hello all. Looks like Maria and extratropical storm Katia are what we have to look at.

This is Katia the undead.

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Quoting srada:


You got something on your nose.



And you have WUmail
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Cat 4 in Newfoundland??
Yah sounds about right XD.
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Quoting RussianWinter:
Is a Miami or Tampa landfall out of the question?


Lets not get too specific, lol...Whatever that forms won't be for another week at least. However, the pattern favors a track into Mexico, or a track into the Gulf Coast, primarily Florida. Wilma is a good analogue storm.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Aw crap right into my beach house....


Well you have 384 hours to prepare. I think you will be okay.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11541
Quoting twincomanche:
A long ways out.


Yes, it is a long way out, lol. However, the pattern favors a track like this, and the models are beginning to latch onto the idea.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting srada:
Funny, my comments were removed and his werent? Dont spill the koolaid while drinking it!
I had a comment removed last night and I have no idea what I said. I have been careful to not post off topic stuff. Except for idle banter with everybody and expressing my 9/11 thoughts. I said to my self.

Self! hmmmmmmm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I tell you, there is a very screwy opinion of what is appropriate and what is not. :P


i honestly don't care though haha

""

cold cloud tops on maria strenthening??? i think so
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS is showing one of two options that a western Caribbean system could take. This model run develops an area of low pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean, and brings it Northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Afterwards, a strong trough sweeps down and brings the storm into Florida as a hurricane. The other option, which seems less likely at this time, is that the storm continues westward into Mexico, without affecting the United States.

18Z GFS @ 384 hours:

Aw crap right into my beach house....
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626. TX2FL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the thing I don't understand -- The admins ban FLDewey, P451, DestinJeff, and bloggers such as these because they get off topic once in a while. However, the blog still has trolls roaming around, that have been here for MONTHS now. At least the aforementioned bloggers were on the topic of weather 99.9% of the time, but yet they get banned for going off topic for a moment?

The admins have a very distorted opinion of who needs to be banned and who doesn't.

(Hoping I'm not banned for this, lol).


Oh my, I'm gone in an evacuation (PA Susquehanna floods) for a few days and some real informative people are "gone" :-( I've been more of a lurker than a contributor but I've always enjoyed the information I get
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS is showing one of two options that a western Caribbean system could take. This model run develops an area of low pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean, and brings it Northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Afterwards, a strong trough sweeps down and brings the storm into Florida as a hurricane. The other option, which seems less likely at this time, is that the storm continues westward into Mexico, without affecting the United States.

18Z GFS @ 384 hours:

Is a Miami or Tampa landfall out of the question?
Member Since: 21 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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