Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sorry, girl; we Ophelia pain.
;-)
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Opheeeelia
You're breaking my heart
you're shaking my confidence baby
I thought Simon & Garfunkle sang that one.
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 21 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-113
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0116A OPHELIA
C. 23/0900Z
D. 14.7N 53.2W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
"With apologies to Neil Diamond"
I think that would be Simon and Garfunkle
That girl can sure enough make my little light shine
I get a funny feelin' up and down my spine
'Cause I know that my Ophelia's mine
So I'm singin'
Ophelia, Ophelia
My heart's on fire Ophelia
Giddy Up Oom Poppa Omm Poppa Mow Mow
Giddy Up Oom Poppa Omm Poppa Mow Mow
Heigh-ho Silver, away
You mean this? :)
That's what I'm thinking too. Or maybe 99L will hurt Ophelia's chances.
Talas killed ~100 people it was the deadliest Typhoon in more than 30 years, mostly due to inland flooding & landslides. More is expected with Roke.
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Ophelia, while I think will stay out to sea, I can see how it does come back west to the US coast next week.
A powerful typhoon made landfall in the main island of Japan today, killing at least six people, and forcing the evacuation of more than a million others. And just hours later the country was hit with an earthquake.
The 5.3 magnitude quake struck just south of Fukushima, where the March earthquake and tsunami crippled a complex of nuclear plants.
Typhoon Roke, the second major storm to hit the country this month, dumped more than 15 inches of rain in parts of central Japan within 24 hours...
Heavy rains triggered flooding throughout central and eastern Japan, raising the threat of landslides in a region still reeling from another powerful storm. Television footage showed drivers stranded along flooded streets. Office workers had to be rescued from buildings by boat because the rivers were too high.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2011/09/typ hoon-quake-hit-battered-japan-1-million-evacuated/
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 21
Location: 13.0°N 43.6°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
He's taken over the hype factor for Accuguess now that Bastardi is gone. Margusity has been wrong all year, going back just as recently as Katia. He forecasted an east coast landfall because the tropical system before Roke made landfall. There is no way Ophelia gets close to the US.
A novice Carmelite
In sister cells
The cloister bells tolled on her wedding night
Ophelia was the rebel girl
A blue stocking suffragette
Who remedied society between her cigarettes
And Ophelia was the sweetheart
To a nation overnight
Curvaceous thighs
Vivacious eyes
Love was at first sight
Love was at first sight
Ophelia was a demigoddess in pre-war Babylon
So statuesque a silhouette in black satin evening gowns
Ophelia was the mistress
To a Vegas gambling man
Signora Ophelia Maraschina
Mafia courtesan
Ophelia was the circus queen
[From: http://www.elyrics.net/read/n/natalie-merchant-lyr ics/ophelia-lyrics.html ]
The female cannonball
Projected through five flaming hoops
To wild and shocked applause
To wild and shocked applause
Ophelia was a tempest cyclone
A goddamn hurricane
Your common sense, your best defense
Lay wasted and in vain
For Ophelia'd know your every woe
And every pain you'd ever had
She'd sympathize and dry your eyes
And help you to forget
Help you to forget
And help you to forget
Ophelia's mind went wandering
You'd wonder where she'd gone
Through secret doors down corridors
She wanders them alone
All alone
fade to different spoken languages
You are most correct: Simon and and Garfunkle :)
My thoughts exactly, but with 99L coming back to life I wonder how that will affect these paths (99L and Ophelia)?
Sorry guys, it's Cecilia and it's sung by Simon and Garfunkel........lol
if you say so..
dosent look out to sea in that scenario
lol
Just about every scenario brings turns this sheared cyclone northward away from the U.S. in time.
Could bring some squally weather to some of the islands but no big deal there.
Most models? Only the GFS and GFDL were predicting a track across the Windwards...
the operational is always the outlier, the ensembles would be the real depiction of what the GFS is currently seeing..Irene was supposed to go out to sea too..heck, Maria wasnt even supposed to bother bermuda but it did..
0 chance it comes near the U.S. with substantial trof progged by the models
Sarcasm ON
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