Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The current intraseasonal weather patterns, incorporating information from low-frequency convective states (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, etc.) over the entire tropical band, is most comparable to 1978 and 2008. Both years contained October hurricanes. The year 2008 contained two major hurricanes after October 1. With the current weak La Nina-neutral ENSO conditions, and the likelihood of the development of an MJO early-mid October, I wouldn't throw out the potential for a late year major hurricane or two over the Atlantic.
A few: http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2011/09/g oogle_earth_61_released.html
No, because if he did, there'd be posts in Dr Master's blog (or notes in a personal blog) we could go back and read.
Banned peoples' posts disappear.
68. STORMTOP 1:46 PM GMT on August 28, 2005 0
OK GANG IM HERE AND READY FOR THE BIGGEST STORM POSSIBLY ON RECORD..THERE IS ONLY ONE STORM WORSE THEN THIAS ONE THAT IS THE FLA KEYS STORMS...THE PICS I TAKE WILL BE PHENOMINAL...IT LOOKS LIKE I GOT THIS ONE RIGHT ON THE NOSE HUH LEFTY...HOW MANY OF YOU PEOPLE ARE LAUGHING AT ME NOW HUH?I GOT THE WATCH AREA RIGHT AND THE WARNING AREA RIGHT..I HAVE BEEN A MASTER PREDICTING THIS STORM..I WAT TO EMPHASIZE PEOPLE ON NEW ORLEANS IF YOU DIDNT LEAVE YET YOU STILL HAVE YOUR WINDOW OF OPPURTUNITY TO GET OUT OF THE CITY..HEED THE WARNING PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!DO NOT STAY HERE THIS IS GOING TO BE A CATASTROPHIC AVENT..NEW ORLEANS IS GROUND ZERO ..THE EYE IS 50 MILES ACROSS..THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF KATRINA..GRAND ISLE IS ONLY 3 HOURS FROM THE BEGINNING BANDS OF KATRINA...I WILL TELL YOU FOR SURE KATRINA WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS OF ALL TIME...PLEASE PEOPLE LEAVE GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN .........I HOPE EVERYONE WHO IS HERE WILL LISTEN TO ME THIS WONT BE NICE PEOPLE IT WILL BE A NIGHTMARE LIKE LEFTY AND I WAS TRYING TO TELL YOU WHEN EVERYONE THOUGH IT WAS GOING TO HIT THE PANHANDLE..PEOPLE THIS THING IS ON A BEE LINE FOR NEW ORLEANS AND WITH THE PICK UP IN SPEED I DONT SEE A TURN AT ALL TO THE EAST..THIS STORMWM IS NEW ORLEANS WORSE SCENARIO....18 FEET OF WATER IN THE CITY...RESIDENCES BLOWN APART...LARGE TREES DOWN POWER OUTAGES FOR 3 WEEKS TO A MONTH.....I WILL GET YOU ALL SOME GREAT PICS LEFTY I WILL BE IN THE STORM AS LONG AS I CAN BE...LEFTY THIS IS WHAT WE DREAM OF.....ITS HERE AWSOME AND THE RUSH WILL START TO FLOW AS THE EVENING GETS CLOSER.....I RODE OUT BETST CAMILLE AND ANDREW AND IM RIDING OUT THIS ONE IN MY RESIDENCE IN MID CITY.DID YOU SEE THE PRESSURE OF THIS STORM ITS AWSOME...KATRINA IS SO AWSOME .....WELL GOOD LUCK GUYS IF I MAKE IT I WILL GET YOU SOME GREAT PICS.................GOD BLESS YOU.....STORMTOP.....
NW is the most likely.
Sending a Category 5 hurricane towards NOLA every storm a storm develops isn't necessarily getting it right though.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011
OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A PORTION OF THE INNER CORE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
STILL EXPOSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. RECENT IMAGES SHOW
THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE CANOPY. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY
IN A FEW DAYS. SINCE THE CURRENT LGEM GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE NHC WIND FORECAST NOW SHOWS LESS
WEAKENING IN 3-5 DAYS. TWO MODEL EXTREMES HIGHLIGHT THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE. THE EXPERIMENTAL
COAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS
YEAR...SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTS
OPHELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AROUND 280/14 AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO MOVE ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TO THE RIGHT
OF PREVIOUS RUNS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT
AS MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.8N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.1N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.6N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.5N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.5N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 20.0N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 22.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
OOOHHHH, so you just admitted to being STORMTOP.
Not finished yet.....
Don't let your guard down yet. My rule is, if it hasn't cleared my latitude and isn't moving moving away then it still has a chance of affecting me. Specially in a year where the storms are doing as they please. :\
Yes you're right.
Very true... We never know, even models change from day to day.... Saturday will tell us....
Link
Sounds like you accidentally rode with a hurricane hunter flight.
I don't remember Arlene well but:
Bret and Cindy: Models didnt see them until after they formed.
Don: Models kept developing, but it struggled until it reached the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Emily was the biggest mess of the year, models had no idea what to do with it.
Franklin was another surprise.
Gert was shown by the models after it formed.
Harvey: models kept developing but it failed to do so until it reached the Western Caribbean.
Irene: Forecast to move south of PR, moved over us and the models had some serious problems in terms of intensity.
Jose: Popped out of nowhere, models where clueless.
Katia: Instead of moving out quickly she meandered to the east of the US and then finally moved out.
Lee: Models where a mess at the start but they didn't do so horribly bad. I think...
Maria: models where off in intensity and track.
Nate: Off mostly in intensity.
Ophelia: We'll see.
Models so far aren't doing so well.
That's a good summary... I had forgotten those details... (something wrong with my mind.... those are facts from this season)
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