Ophelia weakening; Hilary an impressive Cat 4
Tropical Storm Ophelia is weaker today, thanks to dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has almost no heavy thunderstorms near its low level circulation center, which is entirely exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are in a band several hundred miles to the east and south, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show the center of Ophelia is entirely within a large area of very dry air. We don't have any current buoy, ship, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia; the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia this afternoon near 2 pm EDT.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. I believe that the combination of shear and dry air will probably dissipate Ophelia on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Ophelia will bring a few heavy rain squalls to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday and Sunday. At longer ranges, even if Ophelia dissipates this weekend, it could encounter a lower-shear environment south of Bermuda early next week and regenerate. Ophelia (or its remnants) may may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to know.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at Category 4 strength, with 145 mph winds. Quite a contrast from Ophelia!
Hurricane Hilary hits Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has intensified into an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, and has brought 2 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the Mexican coast west of Acapulco. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm's rains should not cause major flooding problems for Mexico. However, a trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. early next week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, and both the GFS and ECMWF models predict Hillary could hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Thursday. If this scenario does occur, Hilary would likely be much weaker, due to the colder waters it would have to traverse to get to Baja. It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds. The GOES-West satellite is in super rapid scan mode today for Hilary, and you can view satellite loops with images taken every minute from the NOAA/CIRA website.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is predicted by the GFS model to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is currently moving west, but steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.
Japan is cleaning up from Typhoon Roke, which made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm. AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Roke were $150 - $600 million, mostly from wind damage. The typhoon killed 12 and left 5 people missing in Japan.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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is fine with me.
"It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief." - I certainly hope that this works out. Texas has been known to evaporate anything of a tropical nature this year. Perhaps a sneak attack, from the west, will get the job done?
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Wow. The power of suggestion. Be back in a few.
It is a near certainty Hilary will bring Texas moisture, if we can just luck into the tools to precipitate it.
The last storm that brought us rain was also an H, Hermine of last September.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011
...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
..........
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
OPHELIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND.
Pre-Philippe is looking good!
huh?
LOL
This won't be the first time I've seem a storm named Ophelia go in and out of classification. I shot this story with news reporter Steve Barrett in '05.
Link
Pretty odd year that's for sure. Plenty of storms get started but then just can't keep going, not to mention most since the peak of the season are just turning and going out to sea. Conus should be pretty safe here soon with waters along the coasts cooling. Bye bye 2011 season IMO!
Danielle
Igor
1: KATIA: 24.8375
2: IRENE: 20.3425
3: MARIA: 8.6700
4: BRET: 2.9450
5: NATE: 2.8225
6: OPHELIA: 2.4250
7: CINDY: 2.3125
8: ARLENE: 1.9875
9: EMILY: 1.9875
10: DON: 1.7375
11: LEE: 1.7050
12: GERT: 1.6025
13: HARVEY: 1.2350
14: JOSE: 0.5275
15: FRANKLIN: 0.4050
- - - - - - - - - - -
TOTAL: 75.5425
Last year on this date and at this time, ACE stood at 128.34--nearly 70% higher--but there wasn't much going on: Lisa had been downgraded to a TD (though she'd be a TS again by the end of the day), and Matthew hadn't yet been given a name.
* - These are preliminary numbers, and as such may disagree with others you may encounter; final amounts will be calculated when the post-season TCRs are released.
Eschatologists are just saving them all up for next year... ;)
Don't count 2011 out yet. Someone pointed out the end of the GFS run and it could still go into the Greek Alphabet and it is more than likely to give us our P storm before Oct. by the Cape Verdes, it looks really good right now.
You clearly haven't been on over the past three days; I'll take that bet... ;-)
Truth is that nobody truly knows what GW/CC will do to the hurricane season.
Technological constraints and natural cycles are obscuring any concrete findings on a link and nothing has yet been found in any other basin.
There is much compelling data out there suggesting such change, but hurricane season is not one of those places (that may, or may not, change in time).
Everytime I check in I can't get through one page of posts without seeing some GW discussion going on. Many times I just peak in and see what's going on and depart without ever commenting, especially when you look at the storm tracks and it shows them all weekening and then going out to sea, strange year.
The NHC named them, I am sure they know more than us when it is time to name a cyclone.
LOL! We didn't even get a single Cat 5 in the Atlantic this year did we!? Stronger storms ha, the storms this year could barely hold themselves together. Texas ate Don without Don giving it any drought relief, never seen a Tropical System fizzle and disappear so fast!
lol I only started dong the pre thing because I saw others do it first :p
And me saying that about the P storm IS on topic because Masters brought it up in his blog about the area by the cape verdes.
If it annoys you that much, I will gladly call the area by the Bahamas pre-invest :p
There is an ignore feature. People has a right to say that, if it annoys you, put them on ignore, yes even me.
And I did not blindly say that about our P storm, it looks good.
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