Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E
A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.
Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.
A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.
European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Philippe is quite an amazing storm. Despite days of dealing with harsh environments, it has finally been earned the title of the 5th hurricane of the season. :D
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM ON
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT TRACK SOLUTIONS...THE GFS TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ECMWF OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN WITH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL FAVOR HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...BUT STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IF THE
STORM TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY PER THE ECMWF...WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM...SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
So how do you propose to stop? Don't forget to add China and India
to your answer.
*Click on graphics to enlarge (graphics can further be enlarged in the Link Window by clicking anywhere on them)
Read the last part of Jeff Master's blog, the AGW part is there(read between the lines). So it is in fact, not off topic to be discussing it today(Even though AGW logic dictates its always on topic)
Finds kids scribbling on the walls and screaming.
Walks out.
west wind around Andros
•The average U.S. temperature during the summer of 2011 was 74.5 degrees F (23.6 degrees C) — 2.4 degrees F (1.3 degrees C) above the long-term (1901-2000) average and the second warmest summer on record. Precipitation averaged across the nation was 7.25 inches (184.2 mm). This was 1.0 inch (25.4 mm) below the long-term average.
EP, 10, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1072W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 40, 40, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,
Good afternoon all, busy day in the tropics.
Miami NWS has a slightly different take.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 061844
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID/TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIB AND
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW JUST SE OF S.
FLORIDA AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA. AND GFS STILL DEVELOPS
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
RUN AFTER RUN. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
AS WE THINK THE FINAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN JUST OVER LAND OR JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST...BEING THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL AT THIS TIME, THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...WL ADJUST THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AS
WELL AS RAINFALL PATTERN TO RESEMBLE THE ECMWF PATTERN. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE INDICATED WITH HIGHEST PRECIP SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH TO OUR WEST AND
THE SFC HIGH STILL STRONG ACROSS ERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...STRONG EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS EARN AREAS WITH THREAT
OF TRAINING CELLS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GREATLY ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
HIGHEST SAT THROUGH SUN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ERN AREAS OF S. FLORIDA (ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACTIVITY AND LESSER PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
16-5-3, not terrible. Philippe for once in its life looks like a well organized tropical cyclone. Could peak at 100mph before weakening. Looks like we'll have Rina next week too.
Just a drive by posting as usual for now, lol.
Chill out, he was actually positively contributing to the blog, so I would keep my mouth shut if I were you.
If you haven't been on here over the past 5 years, Nea is a well respected and well rounded person on this blog, and he knows his stuff. I bet he knows a whole lot more than you do. He has made his outburst because people like you stir up trouble when there is no need for it to take place.
GFS has what could be the real Tammy showing up by 384 hours. Take with a pound of salt ;)
Image is clickable and expandable.
So... what are you doing here?
Go do or watch something you care about.
Good afternoon.
Agreed and agreed.
In all honesty, it looks like whatever the heck forms shouldn't be all that strong down here in Palm Beach...maybe just enough rain to inconvenience some afternoon plans. Not a beach weekend from the sound of it though.
- CIMSS ADT: 4.7 - 82 knots
- SAB/TAFB: 4.5 - 77 knots (89 mph) - OLD
Philippe will probably peak as a Category 2 hurricane.
You're right.... you do need help. lol
TD 10 --> Jova (40 mph).
TS Irwin --> 60 mph.
Viewing: 101 - 151
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