Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:15 GMT le 06 octobre 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.

A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.

European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.

Jeff Masters

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Anyone else find it odd that the Atlantic has spat out the number of storms typically seen in the East Pacific while the East Pacific is moving at the pace of an Atlantic season, yet both basins have released near average levels of energy.
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Just released a quick NW Hemishphere Tropical Update:
Here's My Blog, NW Hemisphere; 2011 Hurricane Season Update
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so no more eastern gom storm???,id put more faith in that solution,should start to have some convection poping off nw cuban coast in next 12-24 hrs,that should be the area to watch between there and the fl straits
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
which storm is more significant to mexico? i think jova because she is closer and will make landfall stronger. irwin by the nhc shows it weakining coming into mexico as a cat 1 :P so im thinking jova will be more serious what about you?

Both will pose significant threats to Mexico, that's all I'm saying.

Night.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Close.

Philippe: 90 mph

Jova: 45 mph

Irwin: 65 mph
which storm is more significant to mexico? i think jova because she is closer and will make landfall stronger. irwin by the nhc shows it weakining coming into mexico as a cat 1 :P so im thinking jova will be more serious what about you?
Member Since: 23 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
0 Z NAM shows a pretty weak system (1004 mb), but may be just what the doctor ordered for Florida and the SE US coast - a solid shield of moderate rain. Also, you can see how dry air gets entrained into the system as it tries to develop. This is going to be a a nice soaker for areas that need rain.

Link
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Forecast:
Philippe, 90 Mph.
Irwin, 60 Mph.
Jova, 50 Mph.


Close.

Philippe: 90 mph

Jova: 45 mph

Irwin: 65 mph
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Forecast:
Philippe, 90 Mph.
Irwin, 60 Mph.
Jova, 50 Mph.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Whoa! You're right! I totally forgot big Bertha!


Kyle 2002.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


How about Bertha in '08?


Whoa! You're right! I totally forgot big Bertha!
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What's going on with the blog? We have a long lived hurricane a Pacific that's going nuts AND possible development in Florida this weekend and we have less traffic than the middle of winter. If somebody knows let me know. I must have missed something.
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October 4-6 nor'easter at Canso causeway, Nova Scotia. Winds 98G117 km. This baroclinic system came through on the heels of Ophelia, but was much worse.
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H.Phillipe's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 6Oct_12amGMT and ending 7Oct_12amGMT

The 4 western line-segments represent HurricanePhillippe's path,
the easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 7Oct_12amGMT,
the ocean-to-island*dumbbell from 47.15n31.209w-FLW is the endpoint of the 6Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
(* ie the northeasternmost dot to YYT, which is split into 2 line-segments by an overlapping dot)
and the ocean-to-coast dumbbell at 46.816n49.05w-YYT is the same for the 6Oct_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Phillipe's travel-speed was 10.7mph(17.2k/h) on a heading of 49.5degrees(NE)
H.Phillipe was headed toward passing 246miles(396kilometres) north of Flores,Azores,Portugal ~6days23hours from now

Copy&paste 46.816n49.05w-yyt, 47.15n31.209w-flw, 25.9n61.1w-26.5n60.8w, 26.5n60.8w-27.4n60.4w, 27.4n60.4w-28.3n59.5w, 28.3n59.5w-28.9n58.7w, bda, 28.3n59.5w-43.09n31.209w, 43.09n31.209w-39.523n31.209w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 6Oct_6pmGMT
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Wow, the pacific exploded, if that's the MJO pulse that will be here in the Atlantic next week... shudder.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
"Flying Dutchman" Philippe is still doing his thing! He's like the little engine that could. He should end up as the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to be at tropical storm strength or better continuously for 2 weeks since Alberto in 2000.


How about Bertha in '08?
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"Flying Dutchman" Philippe is still doing his thing! He's like the little engine that could. He should end up as the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to be at tropical storm strength or better continuously for 2 weeks since Alberto in 2000.

Modified to Bertha 2008
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Oct. 12....

Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting wxgeek723:
Philippe's so chill. Seriously. That's all he's been doing for two weeks now. Just freakin' chilling out in the Atlantic for two weeks now.


I kinda laughed hard at that comment. :)
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Wow, quiet blog. Where is everyone? Lots of stuff going on in the Pacific and impending "doom" for Florida and MJO heading this way, I thought this blog would be so busy. I know a lot of the really long time members have abandoned ship, so to speak, but it is too quiet. Guess it is going take a serious threat to any land mass (US?) to bring out everyone.
Ice Cream's GW lectures have everybody down at Maggie Moos.
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Wow, quiet blog. Where is everyone? Lots of stuff going on in the Pacific and impending "doom" for Florida and MJO heading this way, I thought this blog would be so busy. I know a lot of the really long time members have abandoned ship, so to speak, but it is too quiet. Guess it is going take a serious threat to any land mass (US?) to bring out everyone.
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Philippe's so chill. Seriously. That's all he's been doing for two weeks now. Just freakin' chilling out in the Atlantic for two weeks now.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Thanks for your thoughts. Was looking at that area of clouds and wondering if maybe that might be area to start developing. IF it moves N, then my part of S FL should definitely feel the effects. My house is still partially shuttered...my way of putting the "don't come here tropical systems" juju! LOL Figure if I put up some shutters and have my hurricane supplies, we won't get hit! Karma.


I don't think that's Karma, but a good superstition indeed.
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Thanks for your thoughts. Was looking at that area of clouds and wondering if maybe that might be area to start developing. IF it moves N, then my part of S FL should definitely feel the effects. My house is still partially shuttered...my way of putting the "don't come here tropical systems" juju! LOL Figure if I put up some shutters and have my hurricane supplies, we won't get hit! Karma.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Good evening all. Windy in Port St. Lucie, FL and rainy. Lots of little squalls passing thru. Right now a pretty good shower. Hints of what is to come???? Anybody see anything on sat pics yet to show where this might begin to develop? Got a couple of good books, some wine and thinking about baking cookies for the rainy weekend!


They were showing something starting to develop on the news earlier down around Cuba, so it should make its way here tomorrow night into Saturday morning.
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Good evening all. Windy in Port St. Lucie, FL and rainy. Lots of little squalls passing thru. Right now a pretty good shower. Hints of what is to come???? Anybody see anything on sat pics yet to show where this might begin to develop? Got a couple of good books, some wine and thinking about baking cookies for the rainy weekend!
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Well everyone enjoy your weekend the best you can
Later tator
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well 9/10 times, the ATCF listens to the NHC.



ture
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but noing it the nhc could go 70 or 75 on Irwin and 50 or 65 mph on Jova the nhc dos not all ways follow the atcf site oh nos the nhc may go with 100mph with Philippe



so you nevere no

Philippe:

Irwin:

Jova:
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
Quoting Tazmanian:



but noing it the nhc could go 70 or 75 on Irwin and 50 or 65 mph on Jova the nhc dos not all ways follow the atcf site oh nos the nhc may go with 100mph with Philippe



so you nevere no


Well 9/10 times, the ATCF listens to the NHC.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Irwin is up to 65 mph; Jova is up to 45 mph.



but noing it the nhc could go 70 or 75 on Irwin and 50 or 65 mph on Jova the nhc dos not all ways follow the atcf site oh nos the nhc may go with 100mph with Philippe



so you nevere no
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Quoting Trouper415:
Intersting that one of the storms looks like it is going to curve into Mexico. We'll see how that affects our weather. TWC said it could be 100 mph when it makes landfall.

They use the forecast intensity from the NHC.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Intersting that one of the storms looks like it is going to curve into Mexico. We'll see how that affects our weather. TWC said it could be 100 mph when it makes landfall.
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Quoting weatherbro:
is it just me or do things spin up a lot faster over the E. Pacific?


Conditions are generally more favorable there.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not sure, but we may make that...103 and rising.


It's going to be a close call. But these weak systems like pre-Rina aren't going to cut it. Most likely, it'll take a meandering western Caribbean major hurricane.
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is it just me or do things spin up a lot faster over the E. Pacific?
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Not bad...

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THE 5 DAY SHOWS SOMETHING HAPPENING DOWN THERE!!
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.
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Quoting Chicklit:
yeah, blsealevel.
It's about to get interesting in florida too.

both of these are headed to the same place (click tropical fcts pts)
Link


Wow dont see that often like maybe once in a life time
Sure hope folks over their are paying attintion
And i sure hope they disapate and not make their way to the GOMEX
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Quoting Chicklit:

looks like it cuz we ain't seen nuthin yet.
If you look closely at the sat pic you posted, there,s a hint(and I do mean a hint)of a baroclinic signature in the Western Caribbean
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313. JLPR2
Quoting Chicklit:

looks like it cuz we ain't seen nuthin yet.


The first hints of what could become a storm in that area appears in 30hrs in the GFS.

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Quoting Chicklit:

agree.
she was about dead, predicted to become an open wave and ended up a cat4.
ophelia was quite interesting and aesthetically pleasing.
As someone posted on here a while back..Ophelia wuz gangstah.!.
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311. Vero1
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Quoting hydrus:
What ever happens this weekend, the Mets seem to think it will evolve quickly. Things will get more interesting as the MJO impulse increases.

looks like it cuz we ain't seen nuthin yet.
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Tropical Storm Irwin is up to 65 mph; Jova is up to 45 mph.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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