Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E
A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.
Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.
A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.
European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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lol, okay?
np.
It is so cool to watch Phillipe ram into the trough - I know it's supposed to sweep him up and dissapate him but what if he moves on through.......just speculation of course but Phillipe is one tough little storm.
2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 6 Location: 12.8°N 117.9°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 6
Location: 12.5°N 107.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 062033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE SLOW STRENGTHENING THAT WAS FORECAST IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IRWIN HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED AND IS EXPANDING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT...IN
COMPARISON TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE
EAST...IRWIN IS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE EASTERN CYCLONE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN ADVERSE
IMPACT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRWIN STRENGTHENING
INTO A HURRICANE. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR
295/7...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IRWIN IS FORECAST TO RETREAT AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE RIGHT AND DECELERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IRWIN SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MEXICO IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
IS BETWEEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.9N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 13.6N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Read it, LOL.
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION... GENERATING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OMG this boring weather won't change anytime soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What's the.... !!!
lol I would love 12.8N 50W moving WNW
Link
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
Good Afternoon.
I'd say the Eastern Pacific' last storm in the making.
hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?
dont go out , weather as it stands right now we have winds from the ENE at 15-20MPH with higher gusts and its expected to get worse as the weekend approaches , wave heights are currently 4-6 ft so very rough weather conditions , and a possibility of a tropical system forming near us so very bad weather coming
Unless of course you don't like him, then send him out!:)
About 600 miles east of Barbados.
Well, if he did go out, he will certainly have the time of his life.
He may not come back, mind you....
Also Philippe will probably end up having been at or above tropical storm strength continuously for the longest of any storm since Alberto in 2000.
I went to go check post 154 and appeared there wasn't one.. Then I took a wild guess on who attacked me on here today.. Scottsvb just never gives up.
Rough seas can take out even the strongest people.
That's just ridiculous...We've had posts with over 50 's before.
We "fishermen" here in Florida all remember that tragedy last year.........The weather forecast for that trip was not the best and they went out anyway.
I can answer that - several times. One of my own posts last August received nearly +80, I'm quite certain that's the record. I highly doubt Neapolitan's making new accounts, that's just stupid to assume - who really has the time to do that?
Back to tropics. Please people, save the AGW debates for post season.. you only have 57 days to wait.
I am curious to see what develops around Florida over the weekend. Those must be psychic computers forecasting a subtropical system because there isn't much in that area to see at the moment.
Don't know how long that can wait. What if we have a post season like in 2005 running into 2006 like Zeta? ;)
Then you'll still have Jan - May to debate your heart out.
I didn't call you stupid - I said it was stupid to assume that.
I agree, he is very well spoken and his opinions are valid. It's just not necessary to be so condescending.
-Steve Jobs estimated net worth of $8.3 billion dollars.
-Michael Jackson had a net worth of $600 million at the time of his death in 2009
-Linda McCartney had a net worth of $60 million dollars
Two of them died from cancer. Michael was a prescribed drug addict.
So, there is no necesary correlation between the amount of money you posess and happinees.
There is no necesary correlation between curing a cancer condition and having big amounts of money.
Linda was treated in one of the most advanced World class institutes, the Mayo clinic. She was a vegetarian. She died from breast cancer.
Steve had all the modern cancer institutes available with all the recent developments that were not available for Linda.
Michael could also pay for any WClass treatment that he wished....
So what about us... who have to battle every day to make a living....
What about if we got cancer. If we had a drug addict son?
Neither is it necessary for the bunker people to coordinate flagging Neapolitan and other people's posts. That's been mentioned in blog comments there extensively.
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