Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:15 GMT le 06 octobre 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.

A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.

European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.

Jeff Masters

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259. interstatelover7165
23:40 GMT le 06 octobre 2011

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
258. interstatelover7165
23:39 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
LOL
500 Internal Server Error

Sorry, something went wrong.

A team of highly trained monkeys has been dispatched to deal with this situation.

Anyways...
I love those error messages.
Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
257. biowizard
23:38 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Oh woop! After Ophelia's ghost bathed us in balmy airs laden with fine rain and strong breezes, it now looks like Philippe is on his way too. Hurricanes are (generally) so much better in the UK ... :-)

Brian
Member Since: 12 septembre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
256. WeatherNerdPR
23:33 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
LOL
500 Internal Server Error

Sorry, something went wrong.

A team of highly trained monkeys has been dispatched to deal with this situation.

Anyways...
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
255. ltlurker
23:29 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
.
Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
254. JLPR2
23:25 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...it's still my favorite.


I think Katia and her big eye was my favorite, although Philippe's resilience has been rather nice.
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
253. JLPR2
23:23 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
As I have been saying for the past few days, there WILL BE NO NAMED STORMS for Florida today, tomorrow or any day this month. There is and will be no tropical lows in the area, just some rather wet rain. Believe me when I say this. I've seen this before boys.


Hear you loud and clear, lets see what happens in a few days...
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
252. WeatherNerdPR
23:23 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Hey don't make fun of Jose (:P), its formation is rather incredible considering it was being hit by 40-50knots of wind-shear.


...it's still my favorite.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
251. JLPR2
23:22 GMT le 06 octobre 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Jose. Because it was a very impressive and well-organized storm.

lol


Hey don't make fun of Jose (:P), its formation is rather incredible considering it was being hit by 40-50knots of wind-shear.

Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
And yet another EPAC invest, this one fairly far east, just a few hundred miles southwest of San Salvador:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110062301
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011100618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992011
EP, 99, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 99N, 922W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13744
As I have been saying for the past few days, there WILL BE NO NAMED STORMS for Florida today, tomorrow or any day this month. There is and will be no tropical lows in the area, just some rather wet rain. Believe me when I say this. I've seen this before boys.
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Take a look at Levi 32 blog,he explains things nicely as always.
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247. Vero1
72 hrs.

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who has been your favorite storm this year and why?

Jose. Because it was a very impressive and well-organized storm.

lol
Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Still don't see any hint of a possible Low near Florida !!!


I think it's supposed to pinch off from a upper level trof forecast to be over florida on sat or sun
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who has been your favorite storm this year and why?

In terms of Interest? Ophelia.

It made one of the best comebacks as a tropical cyclone that I have ever seen. It rapidly strengthened, and became the highest forming Category 4 hurricane in over two decades.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
Link A little rough out there.
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Who has been your favorite storm this year and why?
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239. JLPR2


Moving into positive.

It's also interesting how the GFS is now trying to spin storms in the CATL in the long range. O.o
Link
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
238. JLPR2


Should get hit by some pretty heavy shear soon.
Also, the eye is making a nice comeback, could peak at 100mph if it manages to clear it.
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting petewxwatcher:


It's a great movie! It is a retelling/reformulation of "Les Miserables" set in French Polynesia. I know about it because AMC changed their schedule and showed it at 10 p.m. the night before hurricane Andrew hit. Seriously. They did that!


That made me laugh.. the night before Andrew no less....

The tree scene increased my heart rate as I put myself there. It has relevance to me as I was revisiting the 1906 Miami hurricane earlier today where my Aunt and Cousin survived the wreck of the Str. St. Lucie by hanging onto the tops of buildings and trees on Elliot Key. The anniversary is in a couple days.

Nice loop Pat, thanks.

.
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Can someone please post an MJO forecast diagram?

Thanks
Patrick
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Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


Read the last part of Jeff Master's blog, the AGW part is there(read between the lines). So it is in fact, not off topic to be discussing it today(Even though AGW logic dictates its always on topic)


POOF! ENOUGH ALREADY
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks, that was pretty intense, I have to get that now. Can't understand how I missed that one. I like John Ford a lot.
`Just awesome special effects. NOthing to envy a moderm, film. Have to take my hat off and show my respect for their acomplishments on the making of that film,so long ago !!! ,,
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
What a strange season it has been. I wonder if any more serious storms will develop?
MJO is on the doorstep. I believe there is enough energy out there to really fire things up for the next few weeks. Then it will be trough-ageddon..:)
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Here's a PWAT graphic for the southeast USA. Updates every hour automatically. Atmosphere over FL needs to moisten up more before the storm really begins. Image can be blown up larger here.

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my thoughts on possible invest 93l/t.s rina
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Quoting Gearsts:
OMG cool im proud of him :)
He has been with us for so long, even when he crossed the ocean in search for the late Ophelia. His resiliance and perseverance made him what he is now, a hurricane, bravo for Phillipe.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not going to see the hint until late weekend.



anyway I don't want to see any development. I want to have a happy fall season.
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Can't understand why the GFS keeps us so dry in OCTOBER! I hate that.
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225. JLPR2
2011 surpassed 1988's ACE, making it the 26th most energetic season since 1950.

1988 was very similar to what we have seen(so far) this year.

12-5-3
And we are at 16-5-3

Of course there is big a difference that I hope remains once 2011 is done, 1988 had the big and bad Gilbert rip through the Caribbean as a Cat5 and the GOM as a cane.
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
It's pouring straight down rain...

I am trying to decide if this qualifies as our "first cold front" for this year. If so, just barely.

What little breeze we had today was light and variable, it was out of the North a couple of times, but weak.

--------------

edit add

I looked at the U S A and it does not show a front.
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Nice fujiwara
Member Since: 23 avril 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
222. JLPR2
I know it is to late to watch this area, but eh...


Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
aspectre does that extrapolated path go all the way to Great Britain?
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Definitely my screw-up on the previous mapping for 6Oct_12pmGMT. Somehow substituted the wrong 27.8n60.4w for the correct 27.4n60.4w (normally just 'copy&paste'd in).
The mapping itself and its derivative info have now been corrected:
H.Phillipe's travel-speed was actually 11.2mph(18k/h) on a heading of 21.6degrees(NNE)
H.Phillipe was actually headed toward passing ~184 miles(296kilometres) east of Newfoundland ~5days5hours

H.Phillipe's_6Oct_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Oct_6pmGMT and ending 6Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricanePhillippe's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 6Oct_6pmGMT,
the shorter ocean-to-coast dumbbell at 46.816n49.05w-YYT is the endpoint of the 6Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the longer ocean-to-coast dumbbell at 46.816n47.3w-YYT is the same for the 6Oct_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Phillipe's travel-speed was 13.8mph(22.3k/h) on a heading of 41.4degrees(NE)
H.Phillipe was headed toward passing 527miles(961kilometres) north of FloresIsland,Azores, Portugal ~5days20hours from now

Copy&paste 46.816n47.3w-yyt, 46.816n49.05w-yyt, 25.4n61.3w-25.9n61.1w, 25.9n61.1w-26.5n60.8w, 26.5n60.8w-27.4n60.4w, 27.4n60.4w-28.3n59.5w, bda, 27.4n60.4w-47.15n31.209w, flw, 47.15n31.209w-39.523n31.209w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting JLPR2:
Irwin and Jova holding hands.



There is a possibbility of RI with both and if that occurs,it would be horrible for the Mexican Riviera.
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Quoting Patrap:
EP112011 - Tropical Storm IRWIN

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

..click Image for Loop



No way Irwin is a TS, has to be a hurricane right now.
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217. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Irwin is likely approaching hurricane status, you can even see an obscured eye beginning to clear out.


Yeah, just noticed that on the loop, pretty impressive considering it formed today.
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks, that was pretty intense, I have to get that now. Can't understand how I missed that one. I like John Ford a lot.


It's a great movie! It is a retelling/reformulation of "Les Miserables" set in French Polynesia. I know about it because AMC changed their schedule and showed it at 10 p.m. the night before hurricane Andrew hit. Seriously. They did that!
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EP112011 - Tropical Storm IRWIN

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

..click Image for Loop

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Quoting JLPR2:
Irwin and Jova holding hands.


Irwin is likely approaching hurricane status, you can even see an obscured eye beginning to clear out.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
213. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
If they were staying out to sea then I would've thought that was cute.But since they are headed for Mexico that's soooo not cute.


Yeah, although they are a little too close to each other and there is a good possibility that they could interfere with each other. :) Really hoping for that.
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Here's a clip from the 1937 film "The Hurricane". Very good special effects. Done with fans and water tanks. They budgeted $100,000 to build the Polynesian village in the back lot, and $250,000 to destroy it.



Thanks, that was pretty intense, I have to get that now. Can't understand how I missed that one. I like John Ford a lot.
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211. JLPR2
Bad news for Mexico:


Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
GOES-13 Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)


..click image for Loop

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Most the models start showing a low some time late Saturday.
Latest GFS isn't too impressive. Similar run to previous runs with a low moving up the east coast of Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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