Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E
A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.
Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.
A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.
European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hey don't make fun of Jose (:P), its formation is rather incredible considering it was being hit by 40-50knots of wind-shear.
...it's still my favorite.
Hear you loud and clear, lets see what happens in a few days...
I think Katia and her big eye was my favorite, although Philippe's resilience has been rather nice.
500 Internal Server Error
Sorry, something went wrong.
A team of highly trained monkeys has been dispatched to deal with this situation.
Anyways...
Brian
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
LOL.
That happened to me like six weeks ago, and I was like....uhhh...lol.
Here comes the Eastern Pacific's final storm of the season.
The basin will finish below average...again...
The Atlantic will finish hyperactive...again...
The Atlantic is normal to above normal in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
ABPZ20 KNHC 062339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 495 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Don't be so sure on that....the NHC has a tendency to name things that shouldn't be so........
Ophelia, because she was an incredible storm. Everybody expected nothing of her, but she ended up becoming the strongest storm of the season.
Well, one, I haven't said nothing will form, I never say never when I am speaking about the tropics.
Two, name something the NHC named that shouldn't be so.
a new invest. East Pac kicking' it!!!!! yeah!
The monkeys are coming!
I highly doubt that.
Adrian-C4
Beatriz-C1
Calvin-C1
Dora-C4
Eugene-C4
Fernanda-TS
Greg-C1
Hillary-C4
In terms of hurricane and major hurricane activity, yes, the EPAC has been above average.
In terms of named storms, the basin is several storms behind.
14-7-3 is the average (1995-2010)
16-9-4 is the average (1981-2010).
They are currently at 85 for ACE. Just two more points and it's an average season.
The Atlantic has had 17 storms and only has 103 points.
The EPAC has had 9 storms (not counting the ones classified today) and has more than 80% of that.
Unless October becomes really active with real storms, I wouldn't call this year "hyperactive" by any stretch of the imagination.
I can't help how long the storms have lasted in the EPAC and how weak, for the most part, they have been in the Atlantic...The fact is, the EPAC is below average, and the Atlantic is above-average.
That I agree with, 2011 reached today the above-average classification. But still a long way from hyperactive.
In terms of ACE :P
4.8 4.8 5.0
4.5 = 90 mph
5.0 = 105 mph
Yeah in ACE but I would also say in general.
The hurricane category cant be ignored and 5hurricanes and 3majors are pretty average numbers, but with plenty of TS. XD
You should never judge a book by it's cover.
Or a Man by his hat...
heheheheh
Yep, to Southport (53.65n3.027w) though Blackpool (BLK) is close enough.
Copy&paste 27.4n60.4w-28.3n59.5w, 27.4n60.4w-53.65n3.027w, blk, abz, fab into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
07/0000 UTC 13.2N 118.6W T3.5/3.5 IRWIN -- East Pacific
07/0000 UTC 12.9N 108.2W T2.5/2.5 JOVA -- East Pacific
06/2345 UTC 28.8N 58.7W T4.5/4.5 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic
06/2345 UTC 10.1N 92.2W TOO WEAK 99E -- East Pacific
2.5 = 40 mph
3.5 = 65 mph
4.5 = 90 mph
Good place to store incense
True!
:):))
Trough-ageddon. That's a good one.
It was cool here in ECFL for about a week but windy always, especially at night. Interesting weather pattern. Now it has heated up but is still windy.
I can't wait to see what happens this weekend!
LinkLoopCarib
Eye is becoming more prominent, Philippe is strengthening.
Come on cat2! XD
I agree.
AL, 17, 2011100700, , BEST, 0, 289N, 587W, 80, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, D,
agree.
she was about dead, predicted to become an open wave and ended up a cat4.
ophelia was quite interesting and aesthetically pleasing.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011
.SHORT TERM...
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A NON TROPICAL
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER OR MOVES INTO THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACTING OVER PLENTY OF FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE LOW BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TIDES BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON EAST FACING SHORELINES OF ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN
THESE AREAS TIDES MAY RISE AS HIGH AS 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
Link
Seems reasonable.
It's about to get interesting in florida too.
both of these are headed to the same place (click tropical fcts pts)
Link
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