Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E
A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.
Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.
A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.
European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Kyle 2002.
Philippe, 90 Mph.
Irwin, 60 Mph.
Jova, 50 Mph.
Close.
Philippe: 90 mph
Jova: 45 mph
Irwin: 65 mph
Link
Both will pose significant threats to Mexico, that's all I'm saying.
Night.
Here's My Blog, NW Hemisphere; 2011 Hurricane Season Update
Some folks got permanently banned, some longtimers quit, some folks have serious health issues and trolls have frozen the blog thru posting massive graphics, spamming e-mails and generally acting out very badly, all of which has cut down on postings. In addition I think there are folks who disagree with Dr. Master's position on GW and want to argue him down or invoke superstition instead of facing up to the awful truth and they often vet themselves reported for violating standards.
There are still many readers and great meteorologists who contribute to the discussions and I certainly have learned a lot here. So while there may be less comments they seem to be high quality instead of incessant quotings, YouTube vids and football scores!
yes i agree its more like weather it seems
Was paying close attention to the straits this morning and a convergence zone, S of the middle keys. My money is there, trends tonight are looking good. MIA NWS agrees.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011/
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
AS WE THINK THE FINAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN JUST OVER LAND OR JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST...BEING THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL AT THIS TIME, THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
Look at the EPac going Kaboom!
And our little Philippe has a pinhole eye. Sooo cute!
I always had faith he could do it. ;)
All those people who wandered away from the blog cause "this season's a bust" are missing the fun part. Well at least as long as all the big spinnies keep from smacking into land somewhere.
Thanks for the radar Patrap.
It was almost like what Yogi Berra said "It's so crowded that nobody goes there."
No worry.... Well I'm quoting that its bedtime...
Good night all...
Has the GFS ever been right? I cant think of a time.....
This one is about moves by Tuvalu to get a ruling on whether "countries have a responsibility to avoid their emissions causing climate change damage elsewhere". It'll be a really interesting precedent if international law rules that countries affected by climate change can take the worst polluters to court and get compensation - I wonder if that's the kind of thing that will help get people moving to fix things, rather than just continuing to argue?
And here's something I hadn't picked up on before -- apparently, half of Canada's ice shelves have disappeared in the last few years.
The thing I still don't understand amid all the controversy over whether AGW is happening or not is the "head in the sands" attitude that people take. There's been a huge push out here in Australia in the last few months to oppose the Carbon Tax. There've been adverts on TV all the time, saying that the tax will destroy the Aussie economy, isn't necessary, and all the rest of it. Now that's just politics, and the way things work - but the scary side is the effect those adverts have had. There's been a huge increase in the number of people who believe that AGW is a conspiracy put forth by scientists to put "the common man" out of work, and keep people in their places. Which is just insane, frankly :(
A colleague of mine here is an observational astronomer, who spends most of her time (when she isn't teaching) looking for evidence of complex molecules in the places stars form, and in the inter-stellar medium. In the last few weeks, she's had a few experiences that are scary - when she meets people (like a taxi driver, earlier this week), and they learn she is a scientist, they've laid into her, accusing her of all sorts of things, saying she's part of the evil scientific conspiracy, and telling her its a disgrace she's being paid from their tax money.
She's an astronomer, not a climate scientist, yet the level of mud-slinging has reached a stage where even those of us who aren't working on anything to do with the Earth's climate are under suspicion. Things are getting nasty :(
So, the head in the sands thing. The way I see it, there are two idealogical standpoints at the moment. The one that pretty much all climate scientists, and the great majority of the wider scientific community, espouse is that the Earth's climate is warming, and that the main proximate cause is the effect of the greenhouse gasses that we, as a species, are pumping into the atmosphere. On the other side of the fence, you have the argument that the planet isn't warming, and man is having no effect on the climate of the planet.
Now, following that logic, then, there are two possibilities - AGW or no AGW.
There are also, in the simplest terms, two things we can do - either work as through AGW is definitely happening, and try to avert it, or act as though it isn't, and do nothing.
So now we have two possible worlds, and two possible behaviours. What happens for each combination if we go that route?
AGW is a hoax, but we attempt to fix the problem
So, lets assume that AGW isn't happening, but that we bring in measures to tackle it. Well, firstly, we'd have to wean ourselves off fossil fuels to a greater or lesser extent. That will lead to the creation of new technologies (and therefore new jobs), and will also cut pollution, leading to a significantly cleaner environment. It will cost something, short term, but in the long term, the economic benefits of the new technologies should out weigh it, right? Certainly, we're not going to destroy the planet by cutting emissions -- if AGW isn't happening, then stopping what we're doing that could be causing it will just mean the Earth carries on as it already is
AGW is a hoax, we do nothing
The cheapest option - we do nothing, carry on as we are, and no-one suffers from AGW. We will eventually run out of fossil fuels, and prices of everything will go up, but we can of course develop the new technologies discussed above later on, so it'll cost our kids or grandkids rather than us -- so this is the cheapest route
AGW is real, we attempt to fix it
Here, we get the same set up as the first example above - we take a bit of pain now, but we get lots of new industries, new technologies, new jobs, and less pollution, plus we SAVE THE WORLD. Which would be kind of cool. Net result, a bit of pain now, great benefits in the future.
AGW is real, we do nothing
If AGW is real, and we do nothing, then the longer we leave it before accepting things, the harder it will be to turn things around, the more expensive it'll be, and the more people around the planet will suffer. So, long term, this is by far the most expensive option - either we leave doing anything for a long time, and then finally agree there's a problem, at which point any fix has to be far more drastic and costly, and people will already be suffering from all the ills that AGW promises, or we leave it too late, can't find a fix, and we're all DOOMED.
--------------
So from all that, as I see it, it's surely beneficial to attempt to wean ourselves off fossil fuels and address pollution, and behave as if AGW is real, even if it isn't. We get new technologies and jobs and wealth are created, and in the long run, we're all better off. Oh, and it has the benefit of if AGW is real, then we also don't have the horror future of doom.
On the other hand, if we do nothing, the best case scenario is that it costs nothing now, and we gain nothing in the future, and the worst case scenario is things get pretty hellish.
So by that logic, it makes far more sense to act as though the worst case scenarios are true, and try to change for the better, than to leave things to see what happens.
----
Perhaps another way of looking at it is like house insurance. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to set fire to my flat in the next year, but I still by insurance, just in case I do. Even though the likelihood of my house burning down in a given year is really small, and the cost of insurance is non-negligable (albeit not that high), it makes far more sense for me to insure, just in case, than to save the money and pray that things don't catch light.
Argle - just realised quite how long a post/rant this has turned into - so here's my TL:DR
TL:DR
Acting against AGW is a bit like taking out insurance - even if you don't think your house is going to burn down this year, it's better to take the small financial hit of paying for your insurance than to risk losing everything.
Link
We'll see how that pans out.
EP, 11, 2011100706, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1195W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1010, 150, 15, 80, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, D, 12, NEQ, 120, 180, 45, 45
...and, based on satellite, Jova may follow suit as soon as late today or early tomorrow, while 99E is moving toward TD status. Quite a finale, I'd say...
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-080800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE COULD EVEN DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST PALM BEACH...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI METROPOLITAN AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER A SAME LOCATION FOR LONG
DURATION. THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST
TO RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
For the record, Miami is at 88% of normal rainfall since January 1, Palm Beach is at 72%, and Ft. Lauderdale is at 46%, so this event should be mostly welcome so far as that goes. Here in Naples, we're at 66%, but it looks like we're gonna miss out for the most part. Bummer. But if a lot falls over and into the lake, that'll be a major help for the coming long, dry winter.
Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
EVACUATION IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY QUAD CITIES ILLINOIS
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
BUREAU COUNTY ILLINOIS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
A TRAIN CARRYING CARS LOADED WITH ETHANOL DERAILED JUST EAST OF
TISKILWA ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BUREAU COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER IS CALLING FOR THE IMMEDIATE
EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN AND NEAR TISKILWA. RESIDENTS CAN EVACUATE
TO THE NORTH DOOR OF THE PRINCETON HIGH SCHOOL. THE SCHOOL IS OPEN
AND AWAITING EVACUEES.
FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.
Starting to see some clouds popping all along northern Cuba on rainbow.
Link
THE MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL
GULF IT IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH
COULD CREATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW AS WELL. BUT AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MODELS THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN WHERE THE SURFACE LOW FORMS...WITH
TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE
OTHER IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS...WITH THE GFS MODEL TAKING THE
FORMER AND THE ECMWF MODEL TAKING THE LATER. AS NCEP HAS BEEN
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON
THE LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WITH EITHER SCENARIO...HOWEVER...THERE ARE COMMON ELEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST IN THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE STEADILY TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Yea, I'm in Jensen and heard the same thing. Dang raindrops sounded the size of chicken eggs.. got thunder going on now.
Yep, woke me right up. Still raining here with a heavy squall every so often. Of course, my umbrella is in the CAR which is in the DRIVEWAY and I am going to get soaked later trying to head off to work. Not to mention the flooding between here and downtown Ft. Pierce that expect to find. Oh, well, we soooo need the rain, so I guess I really can't complain. Just hope this thing does not develop really fast into something that no one is really ready for!
In Boca as well... just went outside... nice morning.
I think things will go downhill later tonight..
you can see the ULL in the northern gulf on the loop that's gonna kick this off:
Link
In Boca as well... just went outside... nice morning.
I think things will go downhill later tonight..
you can see the ULL in the northern gulf on the loop that's gonna kick this off:
Link
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