Wet and windy subtropical storm possible for Southeast U.S.; Mexico eyes TD-10E

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:15 GMT le 06 octobre 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. The storm may evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name by Monday or Tuesday, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center favors a more westerly location, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model. The GFS model, which puts the storm's center east of Florida, is pushing the weather system that will spawn the subtropical storm too fast to the east. In any case, the exact center location of the storm will not matter that much, since this will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core, and I'm not concerned at present about this storm potentially becoming a hurricane.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday, October 11, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Philippe becomes a hurricane
After 12 days and 49 advisories, Philippe has finally intensified into hurricane, becoming the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth hurricane normally arrives on October 7, so this is a very average season for hurricanes, despite the fact it is already the 7th busiest season since record keeping began in 1851 for number of tropical storms--sixteen. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small hurricane with just a hint of an eye. A wide band of clouds to Philippe's northwest is associated with the trough of low pressure that has recurved Philippe to the northeast. By Friday, the trough will bring very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that has recurved Philippe to the northeast.

A double threat to Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical cyclones have formed. The one of greatest concern is Tropical Depression 10-E. TD 10-E is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of TD-10E, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. TD 10-E is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting TD-10E's potential for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, the GFDL model predicts TD-10E will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast, and the HWRF model brings the storm to Category 2 strength. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing TD-10E to Category 1 strength, but this is conservative, and I put the odds at 30% that the storm will be a Cat 2 or stronger at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be TD-10E's close proximity to Tropical Storm Irwin to the west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken TD-10E, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. Regardless of TD-10E's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once TD-10E has made landfall, Mexico may need to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect TD 10-E. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall on the Mexican coast late next week.

European heat wave: hottest October temperatures on record for the UK
The British Isles have been basking in an unprecedented October heat wave this week, which has brought the warmest temperature ever measured in the UK for the month of October. On Oct. 1, a reading of 29.9°C (85.8°F) was recorded at Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous UK October record of 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Cambridgeshire on Oct. 1, 1985. Wales also broke their warmest temperature for October with a 28.2°C (82.7°F) at Hawarden, Flintshire. Edinburgh, Scotland reached 24.7°C (76.4°F) for Scotland's warmest temperature in at least 50 years. Thanks go to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His latest post is on record hurricanes of the past in the Pacific Ocean.

Jeff Masters

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texas might get alittle of what they need
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4533
Quoting SPLbeater:
interesting, lol
Interesting? To whom?
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Fujiwara Effect.
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Quoting Gearsts:
OMG cool im proud of him :)
Proud of a hurricane? Incredible sense of pride.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Neat! :)


85mph Philippe.
AL, 17, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 283N, 595W, 75, 980, HU
Neat? Para Que? Who cares anyway
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Tampa NWS Discussion

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM ON
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT TRACK SOLUTIONS...THE GFS TRACKING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ECMWF OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN WITH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL FAVOR HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...BUT STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IF THE
STORM TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY PER THE ECMWF...WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM...SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11118
Good afternoon, everyone!

Philippe is quite an amazing storm. Despite days of dealing with harsh environments, it has finally been earned the title of the 5th hurricane of the season. :D
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deleted
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Quoting tracy7920:
hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?


Make him lots of tuna salad sandwiches. Makes for a nice chum slick.
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has there been an Atlantic storm with more than 70 Advisories like Bertha...??
Philipe already 50
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Quoting JLPR2:
Neat! :)


85mph Philippe.
AL, 17, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 283N, 595W, 75, 980, HU
OMG cool im proud of him :)
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
i am sick of this heat wave i live in portugal and in the past ten days the temperature are above 30 degrees celsius. tomorow will be coller but in a few days heat returns and there are no rain in the cards XC

there are no waves to catch i miss rain and winds and huge waves, i guess i have to wate.


well lets put our eyes in the east pacific, because of the 2 storms
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92 1
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Quoting tracy7920:
hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?


Tell him to stay home.....The boca grande pass (the area where the gulf meets the atlantic) is going to be ROUGH. I've caught 12 foot seas in that pass in summer months. With the cold front arriving, the seas there are going to higher than 12'. Please tell him to stay.
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Neat! :)


85mph Philippe.
AL, 17, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 283N, 595W, 75, 980, HU
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Ok..so I must be having a senior moment - Am I understanding that based on the current outlook everything seems to be heading for the east coast of Florida and on up. What is the outlook for the West Coast - say around Tampa? Just a few showers and some wind?
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Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID/TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIB AND
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW JUST SE OF S.
FLORIDA AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA. AND GFS STILL DEVELOPS
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
RUN AFTER RUN. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
AS WE THINK THE FINAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN JUST OVER LAND OR JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST...BEING THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL AT THIS TIME, THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...WL ADJUST THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AS
WELL AS RAINFALL PATTERN TO RESEMBLE THE ECMWF PATTERN. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE INDICATED WITH HIGHEST PRECIP SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH TO OUR WEST AND
THE SFC HIGH STILL STRONG ACROSS ERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...STRONG EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS EARN AREAS WITH THREAT
OF TRAINING CELLS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GREATLY ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
HIGHEST SAT THROUGH SUN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ERN AREAS OF S. FLORIDA (ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACTIVITY AND LESSER PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11118
Based on most of the models the Florida low forms late on Saturday.
The models are a little divide on the location of the Low. GFS wants to form a low near or just off the East coast moving it north towards Georgia. CMC forms a low along the West Coast of Florida with a sister Low off the East Coast. The East coast low then becomes to dominant low. NAM forms a low just off the coast of Cuba that moves WNW into South Florida.



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Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


I'll tell you what I told Mr 2000. There are interest groups on BOTH sides of the AGW argument. Quit acting like there's only the "anti-AGW interest groups". And another thing, you come out with nothing to back yourself up in trying to rebuttal StormHype. Classic.

Of course there are "interest groups" on both sides; it'd be silly to claim otherwise. One side for the most part wants to maintain the enormously-profitable fossil fuel-only status quo at any expense; the other--again for the most part--wants to preserve and protect the environment for future generations of earthlings.

Which side are you on?
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If you were unable to check out last night's Prepare to Survive show, it has been loaded up to YouTube.

The first interview was with Bryan Koon, Florida's Emergency Management Director. The guy knows his stuff...



We took a break, then came back for part two with Bob Lasher, the Community Relations Manager for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority. He spoke about the role public transit plays in evacuations and post disaster planning. Very interesting stuff.



I'd appreciate if you took a look and let me know what you think.

Thanks!
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Quoting druseljic:


I'll be honest, I could see Philippe attaining Cat 2 status.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
Since there is no " Q " name for a named tropical system....this storm since its subtropical WILL be given a "Q" name. It will be referred to as Major SubTropical Cyclone Quiznos. Believe me, you do not want to be toasted by Quiznos. This storm will bring its Cat 2 winds to Wilmington, NC. Preparations there should be in their final stages. The PLANFALF model continues to suggest a direct hit on Wilmington, as it has with every Atlantic wave, depression, storm or hurricane this year. With McTavish values in the 8.5 range......we got problems, mister!!!


I was just asking a question, I wasn't looking for sarcasm.
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Irwin's already up to 50 knots:

EP, 11, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1175W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 25, 1009, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, M,
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While waiting for the 6pmGMT_ATCF, posting the 12pmGMT mapping.

Since the previous mapping for 6Oct_12amGMT...
25.0n61.2w, 25.5n61.3w, 26.1n61.1w had been re-evaluated&altered for the 6amGMT_ATCF with
24.9n61.1w, 25.4n61.3w, 25.9n61.1w, 26.5n60.8w becoming the most recent positions,
then 27.4n60.4w was added for H.Phillipe's_6Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
Starting 5Oct_12pmGMT and ending 6Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricanePhillippe's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 6Oct_12pmGMT,
the long ocean-to-coast dumbbell at 46.816n47.3w-YYT is the endpoint of the 6Oct_6amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
the short ocean-to-coast dumbbell at 46.816n52.057w-YYT is the same for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping
and the coastline dumbbell at 43.561n65.784w-YQI is the same for the 5Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Phillipe's travel-speed was 11.2mph(18k/h) on a heading of 21.6degrees(NNE)
H.Phillipe was headed toward passing ~184miles(296kilometres) east of Newfoundland ~5days5hours from now

Copy&paste 43.561n65.784w-yqi, 46.816n52.057w-yyt, 46.816n47.3w-yyt, 24.9n61.1w-25.4n61.3w, 25.4n61.3w-25.9n61.1w, 25.9n61.1w-26.5n60.8w, 26.5n60.8w-27.4n60.4w, bda, 26.5n60.8w-46.816n49.05w, 46.816n49.05w-46.816n52.937w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting StormHype:


I've mentioned before, you can trust science, but you can't trust the scientists. The reason is politics. Research scientists with PhDs make a living off grants for research. In these tough economic times, hype and fear is the tool to rally public interest in a cause. It's a PR tactic with the hope it leads to more abundant research funding so they can make a living. Every industry and special interest group plays the same games. You are the one left responsible to be smart enough to read between the lines.

If a research scientist is willing to sell his degree and his credibility, he'd have to be an absolute idiot to fight for research dollars along with the other 97% of climate scientists who support AGWT. The law of supply and demand says that the riches and fame are far greater on the skeptical side, since there are only a relative handful of people working over there. Someone should tell them. Quick.
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Quoting tracy7920:
hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?


Call the Captain and ask him. I think the trip will be a wash and would be a wasted trip to Key West.
Member Since: 23 septembre 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2536
Euro Keeps potiential developement in the Eastern GOM.
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Quoting StormHype:


Yeah, but don't take sides that AGW special interests groups are wearing the 'white hats' while the ones in the oil industry are 'evil'. They are all after the same thing: funding to keep their jobs. Doesn't matter if it comes from Dick Chaney's friends or Al Gore & George Soros. They all have an agenda to advance and the "truth" is only ancillary at best. More likely, it's subjective.

That's a pretty easily disproved piece of false equivalence. But you already know that, don't you? (Here's a hint: one side wants to keep polluting, and the other side wants it to stop.)
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back later ,seems to me we wont see devepoment till sunday or monday
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Quoting hydrus:
Looks very familiar hmm
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Would the STS impact all of the east coast, or will this be just a FL and GA event?
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Does MJO have a similar effect with COLD core storms?
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Quoting niederwaldboy:


SERIOUSLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WTF, read this friggin posts... UGGGGH!!!

Have a nice day!!
relax
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Quoting tracy7920:
hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?
dont go out , weather as it stands right now we have winds from the ENE at 15-20MPH with higher gusts and its expected to get worse as the weekend approaches , wave heights are currently 4-6 ft so very rough weather conditions , and a possibility of a tropical system forming near us so very bad weather coming
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hello weather experts...my husband is going on a two day fishing trip Friday through Sunday leaving from Key West and going to the Marquesas and Tortugas. What are your thoughts on the subtropical storm forming in that area?
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So we now have Hurricane Phillipe, which makes it 2 straight Hurricanes for the Atlantic, which hasn't happened all year. As it stands right now the numbers on this years season is: ts/h/mh 16/5/3. I still hold firm to my early season prediction of 21/7/4. :O
Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting SPLbeater:
interesting, lol


The trof is helping her outflow on her west side(SW to NE winds, same orientation as her outflow anticyclone), if I'm not mistaken.
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the development of this subtropical system has me scraching my head there is no convection or anything to speak of in the NW carribean or in the bahamas except that clusted of convection near grand inagua moving Ne so i have no idea
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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