Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.
Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.
Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The 4 southeastern line-segments represent Invest93L's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 10Oct_12amGMT,
and the island dumbbell at 28.18n80.599w-COF is the endpoint of the 9Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
Invest93L's travel-speed was 9.2mph(14.8k/h) on a heading of 318.5degrees(NW)
Invest93L was headed toward passage over CapeCanaveralAirForceStation,Florida ~4&1/2.hours from now
Copy&paste 28.18n80.599w-cof, 25.0n77.3w-26.0n77.8w, 26.0n77.8w-26.8n78.5w, 26.8n78.5w-27.4n79.4w, 27.4n79.4w-28.0n80.0w, 27.4n79.4w-28.56n80.568w, xmr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 10Oct_12amGMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011
They are calling it a mid level circulation. I don't see a closed Circulation either but, that sure is some strong winds for a non Closed Low. Could be strong Divergence from the gradient from a Mid Low and the High to the North caused it i guess. Sure does not seem possible tho to see these winds at the Surface.
will you this stop plzs
They are both on the floater!
LinkWVLoop
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&produc t=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I still think the Stronger SURFACE LOW will be off the Florida WEST Coast.
A. Northeast Florida
B. Georgia
C. South Carolina.
D. It spins down quick as it spun up and no defined landfall occurs.
Not really...storms way lower than that happen all the time up here in the north
A
It almost looks like there's a shortwave diving in from the west that will deepen the east coast low as the upper approaches the surface low.
Out for now, though. That earlier debate took some fuel out of me! I might be back later if I can.
Looking on radar the low on the east coast of florida is turning a little more west (present direction is wnw/nw) while the upper level low in the gulf is drifting north north east. I think now its in the process of getting vertically stacked which if it does that tomorrow over the north east gulf just off the florida coast then theres a chance it still could be called officially a subtropical storm.
As the shortwave approaches I think it will deepen to near 996 mb east or ENE of Daytona Beach, and then slowly fill in afterwards as the systems merge.
But don't take any stock in it. I really have no idea :)
They obviously don't think it has enough time over water, and that there is no pointing in naming it if it is only going to be over water for 6 hours or less.
There are consistent west winds down in Florida bay and NE in Naples.
We'll see if there is a wind shift soon.
They are calling for S wind 15-25 in Naples tomorrow.
That's definitely not true.
Yea I dont have any idea eather, Just that its headed toward florida currently. Theres no guarrentee that she will even make it to a name so...... all we can do is wait... Still it needs to have a name, just look at how many people were caught off guard today.
A GOOD
B AVERAGE
C POOR
D VERY POOR
What do you think this might bring us here in Tampa?
I've been lurking for a few years, but finally I have something interesting to post :D
Here's a video I recorded of the strong winds at Daytona Beach:
Link
Enjoy!
The power just went out for about 30 seconds off of Old Moultrie...i just now got rebooted
I agree the NHC has been a little wacky this year, naming about ever low that appeared in the Atlantic, but I fail to see why this means they should name this wave.
That's weird. I've had 33 mph gusts from the pressure differential winds in Alabama alone. Unfortunately, our total rainfall is 0.00. :(
too many west winds reported for it not to be closed
Our only chance for any significant weather with this system will be if a warm front lifts through tomorrow as this whole mess lifts northward, and I'm not sure if that will even take shape...
Hard to say until we actually know what is happening....there is so much speculation going on in here, i would not wanna confuse many any further.
Durn. There goes my SC landfall guess.
Grothar!
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