Heavy rains for Florida; dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds is centered over the Northwest Bahamas. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The low will cross over the Florida Peninsula today. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history yesterday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore from the Florida east coast are near tropical storm strength this afternoon. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 1 pm EDT today. Several ships have reported winds in excess of 46 mph this morning along the Florida east coast. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will take it over the Florida Peninsula today and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday night, I doubt the storm will have time to organize into a tropical or subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving this storm a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Sunday afternoon.
Dangerous Hurricane Jova headed for Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to slowly intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye, and low level spiral bands have become more organized. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models have come into excellent agreement on the track of Jova, with storm expected to hit just west of Manzanillo. The big unknown is how intense Jova will be at landfall. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 and Category 4 hurricane, respectively, before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.
Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Irwin (left) Hurricane Jova (center) and Invest 99E (right) over the East Pacific.
Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How would I know? I didn't make a forecast. And it all depended on which model you want to follow. From what I see it was a combination of the GFS and ECMWF. A low that forms east of Florida that gets into the GOM and up into the Panhandle. The GFS kept trying to take it into the Georgia and the Carolinas (sorry press) and the ECMWF kept wanting to develop it underneath the upper trough axis.
been a long time
And that bias to get the low under the trough axis has already resulted in most of the models, including the GFS, being too far south and west in this morning's runs.
I already mentioned the GFS being west of Palm Beach with the low on the 12z run. Here's the UKMET valid 8 hours from now. Clearly way off:
Also looks like blown forecast for storm off Florida.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
3:00 AM JST October 10 2011
==================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Caroline Island
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.3N 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.0N 130.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Which is why I put when / if. I don't realistically see it getting named if it follows the EC trip plan; if it crosses FL and gets out into the extreme NE GoM, more likely.
Either way, I'm impressed by how much it's tightened up since yesterday...
Gabrielle developed as a subtropical cyclone then came a TS
subtropical depression 10 then turn in too TD 10
and we had Subtropical Storm Andrea
hmm odd i was thinking we had more but it looks like they are the olny ones i can find
That station reported a pressure of 1001.35mb a while ago. Hasn't updated since.
TD23.... we would be well above average with those kinda numbers.... meanwhile in the WPAC they are pretty much average for the season....
Doesn't look like it to me. Convection isn't as deep, but thats to be expected this time of day. The structure is still very good.
Consolidating nicely SSE of Jamaica , would be surprised if this isn't an Invest if this keeps up by tomorrow, expecting at least a yellow circle at 7pm cst.
Highest winds at Ocean Drive, Vero Beach FL were 50mph sustained with 64mph gusts and a minimum pressure of 1001.35mb.
Very strong winds are being reported along the coast of FL.
Could see a bump up to 40% the next TWO.
BTW, isn't Vero just the next step up the shore from WPB? [It's been a while since I drove up that way...]
EDIT: NVM.... forgot Jupiter and Ft. Pierce....
If it was there would be NW winds in vero not NE like it has been for 72 hours.
Levi, what's your take on 93L?
it looks like we will see a subtropical storm soon
But we do have SW winds down in Florida bay.
Well what specifically do you mean? I think it's following expected behavior very nicely right now, both in how it's winding up and the track that is taking it farther east and north than the models thought even at 12z this morning. I've been pounding away at how they have been wrong on this system from the beginning, except for the GFS which was good until last night and this morning when it fell apart.
What's keeping this from already being named Subtropical Storm Rina?
The southern side does need a more defined westerly flow around it before this can be named. We'll see if it gets there. It's trying pretty hard right now.
29.77 WSW wind
I love rain, but sadly I live in Lee County and got "only" 2.52 Inches of rain
The center doesn't seem very well defined IMO.
Do you think it deserves a name sometime soon. I'm getting whipped with TS conditions here in Florida.
This was supposed to be a TS-like event for Florida regardless, and we've known that for days. Whether this will deserve a name depends on if it gets solid westerly winds wrapped around the southern side of the circulation. It doesn't have that yet. Then it becomes a question of what mood the NHC is in today, and whether they will follow their own naming criteria for subtropical systems.
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