Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BahaHurican:
Season may not have been doom and gloom for everyone, but it's not every year I get a cat 3 storm tearing up my country and scaring the [ahem] out of me for more than 24 hours.... Both the Bahamas and EC CONUS got lucky with Irene, because slight deviations in either track or intensity or both kept that storm from bringing absolute destruction to major population areas. Our southeastern islands are still coming back from hurricane conditions, and Nassuvians are still collecting and sending donations of food, water, and other supplies to the hardest hit areas.

Not only that, but this has been an interesting season climatologically. There has been a lot to puzzle and titillate the minds of those genuinely interested in the science behind our weather. If you didn't "enjoy".... well, perhaps your interest is merely a specious one.

Here in Puerto Rico,we got a landfall from a strong TS/Hurricane Irene that caused plenty of damage and flooding,so in other words,the season was active for us.Not to mention Emily that passed close to our south and the tail of Maria that caused another big flooding event.

Quoting indianrivguy:

Thanks to you both.

148. MTWX
MT, the different wind direction shows up well on that loop zoomed in. Pretty cool, not the same as I'm used to looking at.


149. Walshy
Walshy, thanks for capturing, then sharing the image.

No problem at all! Tornadoes and other severe weather phenomenon are generally my cup of tea. I find tropical system tornadoes are easier to study because the low pressure systems are usually more compact, and the tornadoes produced usually don't get above EF3 in strength. The only issue that makes them extremely hard to track is the high ground speed, which greatly decreases warning time.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Season may not have been doom and gloom for everyone, but it's not every year I get a cat 3 storm tearing up my country and scaring the [ahem] out of me for more than 24 hours.... Both the Bahamas and EC CONUS got lucky with Irene, because slight deviations in either track or intensity or both kept that storm from bringing absolute destruction to major population areas. Our southeastern islands are still coming back from hurricane conditions, and Nassuvians are still collecting and sending donations of food, water, and other supplies to the hardest hit areas.

Not only that, but this has been an interesting season climatologically. There has been a lot to puzzle and titillate the minds of those genuinely interested in the science behind our weather. If you didn't "enjoy".... well, perhaps your interest is merely a specious one.

Also, people tend to forget Atlantic basin climatology. Even in most years since the "active era" began, a 2004/2005/2008 season isn't actually that common. In other words, you can't expect 50% of the storms to strike the United States. It just doesn't happen. Those are anomalies.

Tornado Potential Waning, still a threat for high winds though.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192226Z - 200030Z

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW.

A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL INTO SRN NC...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION AT TIMES...DRIVEN
BY THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3
KM.

OTHER STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NERN NC...DEEPER INTO THE
SURFACE MOIST AXIS. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVEN BETTER THAN
FARTHER SW.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IS THERMODYNAMIC IN
NATURE...WITH VERY POOR LOW TO MID LAPSE RATE PROFILES DUE TO LITTLE
SURFACE HEATING AND WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. INDEED...NONE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION EVEN HAS LIGHTNING...SUGGESTING UPDRAFT STRENGTH
IS WEAK AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND UPWARD
ACCELERATION/STRETCHING POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED...SOME OF THE
DEEPER STORMS MAY AT LEAST BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO STILL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS WARMING ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

And not to toot my horn, but I said at the start of the season that neutral years tend to be bad for the United States. Lo and behold, I was right.

*points to Irene*

Line getting ready to head into the Norfolk area from the south may not have much rain, but it sure is packing some serious wind. Link

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not surprised. My father used to tell us about how after the 1960 Donna passed through Mayaguana, the flying insect population was pretty much wiped out. I can't remember if they had any birds. I always wonder what happens to them; do they die, or just get tossed somewhere else?

My dad saw several flying around in a circle in the eye of Hurricane Charley, and I know there's a video of one actually stuck in the hurricane, it hid under a truck at the airport, until the wind got to strong, and then it dissapeared.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Season may not have been doom and gloom for everyone, but it's not every year I get a cat 3 storm tearing up my country and scaring the [ahem] out of me for more than 24 hours.... Both the Bahamas and EC CONUS got lucky with Irene, because slight deviations in either track or intensity or both kept that storm from bringing absolute destruction to major population areas. Our southeastern islands are still coming back from hurricane conditions, and Nassuvians are still collecting and sending donations of food, water, and other supplies to the hardest hit areas.

Not only that, but this has been an interesting season climatologically. There has been a lot to puzzle and titillate the minds of those genuinely interested in the science behind our weather. If you didn't "enjoy".... well, perhaps your interest is merely a specious one.

No doubt.
And sympathies for your fellow countrymen(Islanders?). Do they really call them Nassuvians? Seriously....you guys took the worst this season had to offer, certain islands in the whole chain plus the T&C got hit pretty good. But, there's probably no better spot that's prepared to rebuild asap, weak economy noted. Overall though, all seasons have some death and destruction, just like Monsoon seasons or other natural weather. This Atlantic hurricane season was relatively calm, featuring a disproportionate number of tropical storms vs. hurricanes...plus every cyclone was inhibited from fulfilling their potential in some way...be it DON who inexplicably went away in the span of one loop when encountering arid Texas, or Irene AFTER it went through the Bahamas just sort of inexplicably weakening more than forecast. There's perhaps bigger factors at work, which is something I proposed we talk about AFTER the seasons over.

For what it is worth ...

My backyard bucket rain gauge stands at 16" this eve

Key Colony Beach, Fl

Quoting CosmicEvents:
There's perhaps bigger factors at work, which is something I proposed we talk about AFTER the seasons over.

Actually, that's why I am quite eager to write the seasonal summary for the Atlantic season (scheduled to be released on December 1). It will give me time to potentially uncover such factors. Don's tropical cyclone report should be interesting, even if I don't find anything to explain its abrupt weakening.

Quoting KoritheMan:
And not to toot my horn, but I said at the start of the season that neutral years tend to be bad for the United States. Lo and behold, I was right.

*points to Irene*

It only takes one.

Tropical Storm Cindy remains the only one with its Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) out from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) so far...We should the rest come out after the season, especially in December and January. However, storms such as Irene may take a while, and it may not come out until May of next year, especially since it has a good chance of being retired.

Tropical Cyclone Report for T.S. Cindy

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not surprised. My father used to tell us about how after the 1960 Donna passed through Mayaguana, the flying insect population was pretty much wiped out. I can't remember if they had any birds. I always wonder what happens to them; do they die, or just get tossed somewhere else?

One of my favorite short stories as a kid was The Scarlet Ibis, by James Hurst. It's not meteorological, and it's a storm-tossed bird and not insects. But, still...

Quoting KoritheMan:

Actually, that's why I am quite eager to write the seasonal summary for the Atlantic season (scheduled to be released on December 1). It will give me time to potentially uncover such factors. Don's tropical cyclone report should be interesting, even if I don't find anything to explain its abrupt weakening.

I'm going to have to say the dry air over Texas was to the point of 0 moisture for Don. Shriveled up like a grape in that Texas sun!! (Sorry Texas, I really had my fingers crossed that you would get some good rain out of that one!)

Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening all.
I have a curious question. Cyclones normally transfer head from the Equator to the poles. How long has this higher than normal activity been going and what is this higher than normal activity is it having on the polar regions?

Baroclinic systems do the work. This myth about tropical cyclones is in the same class as saying that the Gulf Stream keeps northern Europe warm.

FRom the Central to SW &NW Caribbean bears watching the next few days in my opinion.

Quoting MTWX:

I'm going to have to say the dry air over Texas was to the point of 0 moisture for Don. Shriveled up like a grape in that Texas sun!! (Sorry Texas, I really had my fingers crossed that you would get some good rain out of that one!)

Well yeah, obviously dry air was the biggest cause. But I've seen other tropical cyclones that didn't evaporate so quickly in such an environment. Nate for example.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Cindy remains the only one with its Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) out from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) so far...We should the rest come out after the season, especially in December and January. However, storms such as Irene may take a while, and it may not come out until May of next year, especially since it has a good chance of being retired.

Tropical Cyclone Report for T.S. Cindy

I am waiting for the Irene report to see if she was a hurricane before landfall in PR.

Quoting bappit:

Baroclinic systems do the work. This myth about tropical cyclones is in the same class as saying that the Gulf Stream keeps northern Europe warm.

"This myth"? Are you still on that? ;)

The Old Farmers Almanac Outlook for the rest of the month and Nov. and looking ahead to a year from now.

OCTOBER 2011: temperature 73.5 ° (1.5 ° below avg.); precipitation 3" (1" below avg.); Oct 1-3: Hurricane threat; Oct 4-10: Sunny, warm; Oct 11-13: Sunny, cool north; showers south; Oct 14-18: Sunny north, t-storms south; warm; Oct 19-25: Sunny, seasonable; Oct 26-31: Showers, then sunny, chilly.

NOVEMBER 2011: temperature 66.5° (1° below avg. north, 4° below south); precipitation 0.5" (2" below avg.); Nov 1-12: Sunny, warm north; a few t-storms south; Nov 13-18: Scattered showers, cool; Nov 19-20: Sunny, warm; Nov 21-26: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Nov 27-30: Scattered showers, warm.

Annual Weather Summary: November 2011 to October 2012
Winter temperatures will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south, with below-normal rainfall. The coldest temperatures will be in early to mid-December, mid-January, and mid-February.

April and May will be warmer and drier than normal.

Summer will be slightly cooler and much rainier than normal, with the hottest periods in early and mid-July and mid-August.

September and October will be cooler than normal, with rainfall much below normal in the north and much above normal in the south. Expect a hurricane in early September, especially in South Florida.

I think this cool air has mellowed out the blog!

Quoting stormpetrol:
FRom the Central to SW &NW Caribbean bears watching the next few days in my opinion.

You know if the CMC & NOGAPS still showing development down there?

Quoting KoritheMan:

Actually, that's why I am quite eager to write the seasonal summary for the Atlantic season (scheduled to be released on December 1). It will give me time to potentially uncover such factors. Don's tropical cyclone report should be interesting, even if I don't find anything to explain its abrupt weakening.

Don's weakening reminded me of Isidore's weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Well yeah, obviously dry air was the biggest cause. But I've seen other tropical cyclones that didn't evaporate so quickly in such an environment. Nate for example.

True... Final evaluation of the season will be interesting.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I wonder if those two Twaves r the germs of our next potential named storm in the CAR.... certainly NHC is not expecting much from them before then...

(From 8 PM NHC Tropical Weather Discussion)
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N33W TO 13N38W TO 8N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N49W TO 5N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

goodnight. am exhausted burning the candle at both ends with work.
pleasant dreams!

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don's weakening reminded me of Isidore's weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula.

I only remember Isidore when he hit Louisiana, since that's where I live. Actually, he's the reason I am now intensely interested in weather.

Still, I am aware that Isidore virtually stalled over the Yucatan after landfall. Despite being so close to the Gulf and over relatively flat terrain, it comes as no surprise that such abrupt weakening occurred.

Quoting KoritheMan:
And not to toot my horn, but I said at the start of the season that neutral years tend to be bad for the United States. Lo and behold, I was right.

*points to Irene*

IMO La Nina years tend to be kind to us at least from the past 2 years, of course excluding Irene, also let us not forget what El Nino years have brought us ala Andrew. Even the El Nino Modiki in 2004 featured Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne!

Quoting GTcooliebai:
IMO La Nina years tend to be kind to us at least from the past 2 years, of course excluding Irene, also let us not forget what El Nino years have brought us ala Andrew. Even the El Nino Modiki in 2004 featured Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne!

La Nina increases the number of storms, but also tends to create an anomalously south and westward extending ridge from the Greater Antilles to the Gulf of Mexico, which forces many storms into Central America or Mexico.

Quoting KoritheMan:

I only remember Isidore when he hit Louisiana, since that's where I live. Actually, he's the reason I am now intensely interested in weather.

Still, I am aware that Isidore virtually stalled over the Yucatan after landfall. Despite being so close to the Gulf and over relatively flat terrain, it comes as no surprise that such abrupt weakening occurred.

You think most of it was the land interaction, upwelling, subsidence, or something else? I mean like you said the terrain is relatively flat over the Yucatan.

The GFS has been very consistent in bringing a cold spell to the east towards Halloween! Doubt it'l be this intence but this'll sure clear out even the NW Caribbean!


Link

Quoting GTcooliebai:
You think most of it was the land interaction, upwelling, subsidence, or something else? I mean like you said the terrain is relatively flat over the Yucatan.

Land interaction and possible subsidence. Upwelling would not affect a system overland.

Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS has been very consistent in bringing a cold spell to the east towards Halloween! Doubt it'l be this intence but this'll sure clear out even the NW Caribbean!

That's interesting, the past few Halloweens have been so muggy & humid that when I come back from trick or treating I'm sweating. How cold do you think it will go?

What happened to the most powerful MJO in quite some time?

If you ask me ( thanks for the question) the MJO is mostly fantasy. About half the time it pans out, but it often fails miserably as a predictor of hurricane activity.

lots of frost warnings mid-country.. Seasonal transition seems a bit abrupt... we've had record hot and record cold and back to record hot in the past 3 weeks here in SoCal.. craziness

Quoting FrankZapper:
What happened to the most powerful MJO in quite some time?

If you ask me ( thanks for the question) the MJO is mostly fantasy. About half the time it pans out, but it often fails miserably as a predictor of hurricane activity.

The MJO itself isn't a myth. But as you said, we are pitiful at forecasting it.

I have made no secret of the fact that I despise obsessive reliance on computer models.

Hawaii earthquake? 4.5 mag

Quoting Dragod66:
Hawaii earthquake? 4.5 mag

Interesting. I hadn't heard.

Quoting FrankZapper:
What happened to the most powerful MJO in quite some time?

If you ask me ( thanks for the question) the MJO is mostly fantasy. About half the time it pans out, but it often fails miserably as a predictor of hurricane activity.

The MJO isn't fantasy, it is real.

To answer your second question, it is here.

Quoting Dragod66:
Hawaii earthquake? 4.5 mag

4.5? USGS site says 3.3

Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's interesting, the past few Halloweens have been so muggy & humid that when I come back from trick or treating I'm sweating. How cold do you think it will go?

Well the GFS has highs on the 28th at 53-56F(for Orlando)! That's insane! It's best to add 7-10 degrees to that temperature. But regardless, this shot looks to at least rival the one in October 2008!

The Euro on the other hand has an odd solution given the overall setup. Because of that, I prefer the GFS as do most of the experts.

Quoting wxgeek723:


4.5? USGS site says 3.3

Epicenter was in Hilo.

no there was a bigger one , the 3.3 is a aftershock.

that blob at 10n 45w looks to be buiding some pretty deep convection any thing going on there to watch

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The MJO isn't fantasy, it is real.

To answer your second question, it is here.

Well of course the MJO is here.
Just look at the CATL O_O

Comments 227 & 245. That CATL wave has nice spin & convection to boot. I am surprised that the NHC doesn't designate this with a yellow circle. I see a big ULL dropping down from above & this could put a damper on development. Nothing has looked this good heading into the Carribean all year.

Its really windy right now, with gusts up to 35 mph. I'd hate to see what it is like in Chicago.

*Images from The Weather Channel website*

...Looking at the local forecast and at the CATL, the current sunny period in PR will be interrupted starting on Friday. Expect...heavy rains during the the weekend and Monday.
Good Night everyone.