Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.
97L
A broad region of low pressure near 11°N, 55°W, about 300 hundred miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean on Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression then, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 75, 1012, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
...while 97L maintains its status quo:
AL, 97, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 624W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good luck Mate! Knock'em dead.
He's a moron. The discussion from the Miami NWS tells the story well.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 241250
AFDMFL
ISSUED 716 AM EDT MON OCT 24 201
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SPREAD WITHIN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCREASES.
DESPITE THEIR NOTABLE DIFFERENCES...THEY ALL DO INDICATE
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
FOR TIMING...THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
DOES BEGIN TO STALL THIS BOUNDARY OVERHEAD WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT FURTHER PROGRESSING ESE WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
.WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS PERSIST WITHIN THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
Good luck buddy. Hope you get it
well according to this your close
AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 75, 1012, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
and your proof is what? I'll give you 5mins to tell me before i add you to my ignore list.
Track has it pretty much hanging around WCarib over water for a few days, traveling more latitude than longitudinally. So who knows.
HWRF has done well this season, by the way.
Also, given the current satellite appearance and the environment the storm is in, it would not surprise me at all to see this become a strong tropical storm at day's end.
lol
That's the NHC forecast track.
Agreed, it seems that the southeast shear is easing a bit allowing the the MLC and LLC to become vertically stacked as you say. This would definitely allow her to become a more efficient storm and take advantage of the high ocean heat content.
REMEMBERING WILMA
HURRICANE WILMA STORIES
TS force winds only extend 90 miles out from the center at present, and the system is about 190 miles away from us. We won't experience TS force conditions here, assuming it holds to its current projected track.
Viewing: 1101 - 1130
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