Hurricane Rina a Category 2, headed towards the Yucatan
Hurricane Rina is now a Category 2 storm, headed slowly west-northwest at 3 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 4:32 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has leveled off in intensity, with no change in strength since the last hurricane hunter mission. A murky, cloud-filled eye is visible on visible satellite loops right now. Rina also has an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north, and very intense thunderstorms with cold clouds tops that extend up to the stratosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's south side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Cayman Islands; George Town on Grand Cayman has received 4.76" of rain over the past three days from Rina, as of 9 am EDT this morning.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Rina taken at 12:15 pm EDT October 24, 2011. Two hours after this image was taken Rina had intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found Rina's eyewall had a gap in it during their 4:32 am EDT eye penetration this morning, probably caused by the moderate wind shear the storm has experienced over the past day. It is unlikely that Rina will be able to "bomb" and undergo rapid intensification unless it can close off this gap in the eyewall. Wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday night, so Rina still has a day and a half to continue its intensification process. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. On Wednesday night, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, which should turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. However, it is uncertain if Rina will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of this through and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models. However, if Rina remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys as a weakening tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFDL and GFS models. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct.
Comparing Rina to Hurricane Wilma of 2005
Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October brings to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also did this in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced (Figure 3). Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.
Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma at 8:22 a.m. CDT Oct. 19, 2005 as photographed by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and winds of 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and had an eye just 2.3 miles in diameter, the smallest on record.
Figure 3. The total heat content of the ocean available to fuel hurricane intensification as measured by the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP). Top: TCHP for October 23, 2011, one day before Hurricane Rina of 2011 formed. Bottom: TCHP for October 18, 2005, the day Hurricane Wilma formed. TCHP values in excess of 80 kJ per centimeter squared (yellow colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Both hurricane had similar very high levels of TCHP to help fuel intensification. Image credit: NOAA/AOML
Figure 4. Wind shear in knots for 09 UTC October 25, 2011, during Hurricane Rina of 2011 (top) and at 21 UTC October 17, 2005, the day before Wilma became a hurricane. A large area of wind shear less than 5 knots lay over Wilma as it was forming, while Rina was under wind shear of 20 knots this morning. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
97L north of the ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure between the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao and the Dominican Republic (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased a little since yesterday, and the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. The storm is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air is the main impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low through Thursday, and 97L will encounter a moister atmosphere as it progresses westward into the Central Caribbean. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua on Thursday, the storm could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Heavy rains from 97L should reach Jamaica on Thursday, the Cayman Islands by early Friday morning, and south-central Cuba by Friday night.
Geomagentic storm triggers brilliant aurora displays
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that blasted away a portion of the sun's atmosphere earlier this week hit the Earth's magnetic field at 2 pm EDT yesterday. The resulting show of Northern Lights was observed as far south as Arkansas last night. Here in Michigan, I got a call from a neighbor's 12-year old, who was concerned that the sky was all red. Alas, the display was gone by the time I had finished explaining in far too much technical detail what was behind the event!
I'll have a new post on Rina this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Northern Lights!!! 2011_10_24 (
thebige)
In SW MO! Rare, Rare sight!
Not great, but better than nothing!! Notice the
Reader Comments
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Yeah but, If I read that GFS right, it's just a 1001mb low pressure when it gets to SW Florida coast or a TS. If I had my druthers...
Your welcome. It's what I do. Lol
Levi, do you believe that the most probable track would be into S. FL? You mentioned that some models aren't correctly measuring her pressure and how deep in the atmosphere she is. Do you think that is why some models are predicting that she will curve once she reaches the tip of western Cuba?
84 hours out on the 12z GFS:
YUP!
All he has to do is ask you.
But that would take all the fun out of it.
You could always ask someone how to plant seeds.
But they wont get it correct until he does it for himself.
MANY TIMES.
But as a Gamma.
Isnt it emotionally rewarding/ fantastic to watch the process he goes through?
See his gears turning and making you rethink things as well.
Gotta love it.
If she was actually reaching S.FL in 84 hours, she could still maintain some sort of moderate strength because that would be moving quite quickly, right?
It seems that when the GFS is predicting a turn out to sea or a " u-turn of death in the caribbean" then the NHC is all over using the GFS, but as soon as they predict a direct landfall on US soil, they take some other models into consideration and hold off for a little while until they're sure it's coming (when it's <48 hours away). Allow it may subdue a "panic" for a little while they should give people more time to prepare and point the cone towards FL or anywhere else if that's where the models say it's going.
What if Rina does do a big loop and ends back up in the Western Carribean? This would happen if it has more land interaction with the Yucatan Pennisula. Will the windshear be more favorable in the GOM after 5 days?
Yes, since yesterday in my blog I have mentioned that the more northward track close to south Florida makes more sense to me.
Two days will tell.
Listen to your local advisories In the Mean time.
When Charley was approaching????
My local guy called it just in time for anyone listening.
Then the power went off and he was my saving voice on the radio.
Several things. First, Wilma was a very large hurricane compared to Rina, with hurricane force winds extending up to 175 miles from the center. Second, Wilma had an extremely low central pressure, 887 millibars, compared to Rina, which is at 970 millibars at about the same location as Wilma, when she was undergoing her most intense strengthening phase. Rina appears to be deepening slowly, if at all. Third, a powerful eastward-moving mid-level trough across the central United States turned the hurricane northeastward and caused it to gradually accelerate after she got back into the Gulf. With forward speeds of about 50 knots, the wind shear that was over her had very little effect, especially since she was large enough to insulate herself from the effects of almost any other weather. Lastly, Wilma formed near the end of one of the most active hurricane seasons in Atlantic history, so the whole Caribbean and central Atlantic Ocean atmosphere was already destabilized and ready for a large storm like Wilma to grow. Wilma was a a once in a lifetime kind of storm, and Rina, even though she formed in the same area and at the same time, is really not comparable in almost any way.
Jim Farrell saved many lives when it came to Hurricane Charley.
This is just one video but he kept telling us the forecast was wrong/ long enough for us to take action.
Oh heck!
Now I am in the cone of DOOM.
Luckily We have had recent practice with the Cane protection.
Wasn't this from the low pressure trough in EPAC that moved over to our side. I remember looking around in the archives for storms that crossed the isthmus because someone had asked a question about it.
Link
Look at this met from Tampa saying that Charley is moving North(FF to time 1.4 min) and its clearly visible in the loop behind him that Charley had turned way earlier than his statement.
Dont trust a met that is reading a script.
Trust a Met that is explaining whats going on in the graphic!
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