Climate change education in zoos
I'm in San Francisco this week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over ten thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world's top climate scientists, are in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. This year, there is much attention being given to communication of science to the public, and the first talk I attended today on the subject was given by Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State University. Dr. Mann has been at the center of much recent controversy over climate science, and has an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal titled, "Climate Contrarians Ignore Overwhelming Evidence". His "hockey stick" graphs showing the unprecedented increase in global temperatures over the past 1,000 years has been the subject of heated attack, much of it orchestrated by the public relations wings of powerful industries whose profits are threatened by by possibility of regulatory action to reduce global warming. He has a book coming out in January titled, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Dr. Mann reaffirmed his stance on human-caused climate change in his talk this morning, calling attention to a paper that appeared in Nature Geoscience last week, finding that most of the observed warming of Earth's climate in recent decades—at least 74 percent—is almost certainly due to human activity. Dr. Mann said that this study did not go far enough, and that more than 100% of the warming in the past 30 years was due to humans. Without humans, the climate would have cooled over the past 30 years.
Figure 1. An example of educational material on polar bears that has been developed by CliZEN for use at nine U.S. zoos.
Dr. Mann also introduced a new pilot program he is involved with to advance climate change education through U.S. zoos. The National Science Foundation-funded project is called CliZEN, The Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network. Zoos represent a unique way for people to connect to the natural world, and over 50 million people in the U.S. go to the zoo each year--double that, if one includes aquariums. Thus, zoos thus offer a unique opportunity to communicate how climate change threatens the natural world. People who go to zoos are approximately 50% more likely to be alarmed or concerned about climate change than the general population, Dr. Mann showed. The initial eduction effort has a polar theme, and is being brought to nine zoos: the Chicago Zoological Society of Brookfield, IL; Columbus Zoo & Aquarium, OH; Como Zoo & Conservatory, St. Paul, MN; Indianapolis Zoo, IN; Louisville Zoological Garden, KY; Oregon Zoo, Portland, OR; Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, PA; Roger Williams Park Zoo, Providence, RI; and the Toledo Zoological Gardens, OH. The organization Polar Bears International is helping develop the educational material.
Jeff Masters
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 7 2011
==============================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1002 hPa) located at 16.0S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west northwest at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS
Additional Information
======================
The system northwesterly sheared, the low level circulation center is now completely exposed. The low level circulation center is now tracking slowly globally westward. It is forecast to go on slowly west northwestward while filling up.
The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodriques Island Friday.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
13-17 named storms
6-9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
I turned on my computer this morning, and almost had a tragedy: CIMSS wasnt loading, lol
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.2mb/ 59.0kt
Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.4
Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1004.9mb/ 32.0kt
Raw T# 1.5
Adj T# 1.5
Final T# 1.5
Scene Type: SHEAR
Clear
26 °F
Clear
Windchill: 19 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================
At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.
Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.5S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 95.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.0S 99.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 99.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by visible and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Visible imagery during the day showed a curved band pattern with a 1.1 wrap but in recent images a wrap of between 0.8 and 0.9 was obtained, yielding a DT of 3.5. FT was 3.5 but CI held at 4.0. Intensity maintained at 55 knots [10 minute average].
Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center
The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was about 3 knots from the northwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.
NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.
Alenga may itensify a little overnight over the diurnally favourable period. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.
I wish it would cool off here! High of 84 expected here in Orlando but it is supposed to cool off for about 18 hours or so starting tonight before the wind shifts back from the NE and pushes warm back over FL from the Atlantic.
THE massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in March caused a rare "merging tsunami" in which two waves combined to amplify the destruction after landfall, according to NASA.
For the first time ever, US and European radar satellites captured images of the two wave fronts, confirming the existence of the long-hypothesised process, which forms a "single, double-high wave far out at sea."
"This wave was capable of travelling long distances without losing power. Ocean ridges and undersea mountain chains pushed the waves together along certain directions from the tsunami's origin," NASA said in a statement on its website.
"The discovery helps explain how tsunamis can cross ocean basins to cause massive destruction at some locations while leaving others unscathed," it said, adding that the research could help to improve forecasts.
"It was a one-in-10-million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites," said Tony Song, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which partnered with Ohio State University for the study.
"Researchers have suspected for decades that such 'merging tsunamis' might have been responsible for the 1960 Chilean tsunami that killed about 200 people in Japan and Hawaii, but nobody had definitively observed a merging tsunami until now."
The 9.0-magnitude underwater earthquake and tsunami on March 11 left 20,000 people dead or missing, devastated large areas of northeastern Japan and sparked a nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant.
Wow! Thanks for sharing!
http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?cSlh ncb
It is a currently active petition, upon which I was approximately the 365,xxx signatory.
Quote from the site:
"The UN treaty on climate change -- our best hope for action -- expires next year. But a... coalition of oil-captured countries is trying to kill it forever. It's staggeringly difficult to believe: they are trading short term profits for the survival of our natural world.
The EU, Brazil and China are all on the fence -- they are not slaves to oil companies the way the US is, but they need to hear a massive call to action from people before they really lead financially and politically to save the UN treaty. The world is gathered at the climate summit for the next 3 days to make the big decision. Let's send our leaders a massive call to stand up to big oil and save the planet -- an Avaaz team at the summit will deliver our call directly. Sign the petition..."
Any comments or questions which you may wish to direct to ME...
please send via Wumail.
CRS
im bored
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
Here across the big pond in good ol' UK the weather warnings are popping up one after another. We have a level 2 Cold Weather Alert and Red Alert for High winds. Red is the highest level and quite rare, only used a few times a year. BBC Scotland warns of travel disruptions, power cuts, damage to property. It's supposed to hit around rush hour so commuters will have a hard time tomorrow. The low pressure system is forecast to be 965 mb deep or less.
Even down here in Wales I expect winds ranging 50-60 mph.
"On December 6, 2011 at 1545z, GOES-15 took its first infrared image as the operational geostationary satellite positioned over the Pacific - called GOES-West."
In the north half of this photo of the Eastern Pacific are tons of ship trails, some a hundred miles wide and a thousand miles long. This affects the weather in a big way, all over the world. Since we're into predictions here, I predict that the Colorado River drainage will get plenty of snow and everybody else will get a drought.
1. THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
2. THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance.
3. THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 30% chance.
4. THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10% chance.
And then they go on to state the following:
Typically, seasons with the above-listed NTC values have TC activity as follows:
180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes
So there you have it: 2012 will see a count between 5-2-0 and 17-11-5, with a most likely chance of 13-8-4. Have fun with that. ;-)
For what it's worth, they also changed their climatology to the following:
1950-2000 Mean in parenthesis; 1981-2010 median
Named Storms: (9.6) 12.0
Named Storm Days: (49.1) 60.1
Hurricanes: (5.9) 6.5
Hurricane Days: (24.5) 21.3
Major Hurricanes: (2.3) 2.0
Major Hurricane Days: (5.0) 3.9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: (96) 92
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: (100) 103
Zoo Management
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