Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:00 GMT le 12 décembre 2011 +20
This year is now the wettest year in nearly 200 years of record keeping in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. A large, wet low pressure system soaked the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday and early Thursday, bringing 2.31 inches of rain to the City of Brotherly Love, bringing this year's precipitation total in Philly to 62.26 inches. This breaks the old yearly precipitation record of 61.20 inches, set in 1867. In a normal year, Philadelphia receives about 40 inches. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this is one of the most difficult U.S. city records to break, since rainfall records in Philadelphia go back to 1820. The only other sites with a longer continuous precipitation record in the U.S. are Charleston, SC (1738 -) and New Bedford, MA (1816 -).


Figure 1. Departure of precipitation from average for 2011, as of December 6, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

20+ inches above average precipitation in Ohio Valley, Northeast
Philadelphia is not alone in setting a wettest year in recorded history mark in 2011. Over a dozen major cities in the Ohio Valley and Northeast have set a new wettest year record, or are close to doing so. Thanks to rains associated with this year's tremendous tornado outbreaks in April in May, plus exceptionally heavy summer thunderstorm rains, combined with rains from Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene, portions of at least twelve states have seen rains more than twenty inches above average during 2011.



The fraction of the country covered by extremely wet conditions (top 10% historically) was 32% during the period January through November, ranking as the 2nd highest such coverage in the past 100 years. And if you weren't washing away in a flood, you were baking in a drought in 2011--portions of sixteen states had precipitation more than twenty inches below average (Figure 1.) The fraction of the country covered by extremely dry conditions (top 10% historically) was 22% during the period January through November, ranking as the 8th highest in the past 100 years. The combined fraction of the country experiencing either severe drought or extremely wet conditions was 56% averaged over the January - November period--the highest in a century of record keeping. Climate change science predicts that if the Earth continues to warm as expected, wet areas will tend to get wetter, and dry areas will tend to get drier--so this year's side-by-side extremes of very wet and very dry conditions should grow increasingly common in the coming decades.


Figure 2. Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during the period January - November, as computed using NOAA's Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of the country (56%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Unofficial state yearly precipitation record set in Ohio
The Wilmington, Ohio NWS office announced last week that three stations in Southwest Ohio had unofficially broken the 140-year old state yearly precipitation record. Cheviot, Miamitown, and Fernbank have recorded 73.81", 71.89", and 70.85", respectively so far in 2011, beating the old record of 70.82" set at Little Mountain in 1870. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the old record should be 72.08” at Mt. Healthy, Ohio in 1880.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt summarizes the global weather extremes in November in his latest post.

Jeff Masters
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303. SPLbeater 13:07 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
pull my comments all you want Jeff ima saint with the Lord behind me i aint stoppping.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
305. Dodabear 13:13 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting SPLbeater:
pull my comments all you want Jeff ima saint with the Lord behind me i aint stoppping.


Jeff doesn't pull your comments. There are others here that do that.
Member Since: 28 juillet 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2234
306. StormTracker2K 13:13 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Bar far the best post of the year!

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
307. SPLbeater 13:18 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting Dodabear:


Jeff doesn't pull your comments. There are others here that do that.


yeah, im sure of that. i know a few. they think that im talking 'religious' and dont want to hear the truth. but, i have done my part and let the Lord handle it. funny how #288 was removed for violating community standards, and was a simple reply to another member. evidently somebody on here is screwed. oh well then, cuz i can post anything #2 time! :D
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
310. StormTracker2K 13:27 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Good Morning Scooter67.

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311. StormTracker2K 13:29 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
312. SPLbeater 13:32 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
well here is something so that i am 'on topic' in jeffs veiw...
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
315. SPLbeater 13:39 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
it would be cool if we had a computer system that could detect when a troll is present, lol
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316. StormTracker2K 13:43 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Rapid Retreat of Chile Glacier


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317. PensacolaDoug 13:44 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.




How bout a deep-south snowstorm?
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318. StormTracker2K 13:45 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Today's US WX map.

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319. StormTracker2K 13:52 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



How bout a deep-south snowstorm?


I don't see that happening but the coldest air of the season maybe coming next weekend for the SE US.
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320. StormTracker2K 13:53 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
322. WxGeekVA 13:53 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting mistymountainhop:
dude no need to announce it. Just flag, report, and ignore the nimwits.


Look at his username. I think he may be the troll.... And besides, how does someone with that join date know about JFV and Jason? They haven't been on here trolling in months....
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
323. StormTracker2K 13:56 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Lot's of cold wx in Asia soon to slide toward the CON US come later next week. Get ready folks this is some extremely cold air coming!

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
324. WxGeekVA 13:58 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting Coldwellrnd:
I see StormTracker2K how you operate now. Pad your numbers with approximately 350 comments of nonsense and the same old BS weather maps we see from you on a daily basis before you begin your AGW campaign.

Rack up blog numbers to full others of your supreme credibility before the AGW BS comes out and starts working toward that Neapolitan-Skyepony anti-capitalist agenda.

Really smart there. Really smart. One problem. It feel a bit short.

Good try.

Play again sometime.


Seriously?
Rule #1 of the Rules of the Road:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.

Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
325. StormTracker2K 13:59 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Seriously?
Rule #1 of the Rules of the Road:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.



Thank you! Some people have lots of hate in them.
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327. StormTracker2K 14:03 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Looks as if our Scotland system is weakening.

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
328. Neapolitan 14:05 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



How bout a deep-south snowstorm?
It'd be nice to get some kind of cooling; here in South Florida, at least, it's been very mild for quite a while, with no deep cold snaps as we would have usually seen by now. In fact, Naples hasn't dropped below 50 yet, which is unusual (though by no means unprecedented). We've been at or above normal 10 of this month's 13 days, as we were over 14 of the last 17 days of November, meaning 24 of the past 30 days have been warmer to much warmer than normal.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Look at his username. I think he may be the troll.... And besides, how does someone with that join date know about JFV and Jason? They haven't been on here trolling in months....

It's an old member circumventing a ban--the same person to whom you replied, and the author of 321. Do what you'd like, but I don't even bother responding; I just report and ignore, as the man says...
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
329. emcf30 14:07 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting kaiden:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Happy Holidays and good health to all.
.
.
The Twelve Nights of Christmas bring to me:
.
.
Twelve trollers trolling
Eleven different Jasons
Ten Models Dooming
Nine loops of NOLA
Eight foot massages
Seven teen-age pro-mets
Six pack of Fresca
Five funny people
Four censored postings
Three pattern changes
Two guys in Georgia
And a storm doomed to hit MIAMI.

A true Christmas classic... Good job cos
Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
330. hurricane23 14:11 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.



The ECMWF has a totally different pattern at 240 hours than either the Canadian or GFS. I've noticed this a few times recently where the GFS tries to break the subtropical ridge too much in the extended time frame. At some point the pattern will break, but the ECMWF probably has a better track record in the past month or so. Let's see if in the coming days the ECMWF trends towards the GFS, or vice-versa. Still pretty far out in time.

The GFS ensemble mean shows a ridge in the west and a trough central and east, but the magnitude is highly in question right now.

Adrian
Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
331. StormTracker2K 14:21 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting hurricane23:


The ECMWF has a totally different pattern at 240 hours than either the Canadian or GFS. I've noticed this a few times recently where the GFS tries to break the subtropical ridge too much in the extended time frame. At some point the pattern will break, but the ECMWF probably has a better track record in the past month or so. Let's see if in the coming days the ECMWF trends towards the GFS, or vice-versa. Still pretty far out in time.

The GFS ensemble mean shows a ridge in the west and a trough central and east, but the magnitude is highly in question right now.

Adrian


Great post Adrian. I agree with you but that is some serious cold wx blanketing most of Asia right now and it's just a matter of time before that cold works it's way over to the US.

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
332. SPLbeater 14:21 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
im going to go and peel my an orange fer breakfast. be back at....the time im done with breafkast!
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
333. Some1Has2BtheRookie 14:32 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Incorrect.


I once asked Jeff why one of my comments was pulled. He was not aware of it and I had to explain what my comment contained. He said he was not sure why my comment was pulled and other similar comments by others were not. I told him that I did not care if others' comments were not pulled. I just wanted to know what triggered my comment getting pulled. In other words, Jeff is not behind all comments being pulled.
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4104
334. MySecondHandle 14:43 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting IvanJackinogh:
Troll Alert: Dodabear
? So someone joined in 2001 with the plan of trolling in 2011?

Dodabear has been a member longer than some of you have been alive...
Member Since: 16 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
335. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
14:54 GMT le 14 décembre 2011
   
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I once asked Jeff why one of my comments was pulled. He was not aware of it and I had to explain what my comment contained. He said he was not sure why my comment was pulled and other similar comments by others were not. I told him that I did not care if others' comments were not pulled. I just wanted to know what triggered my comment getting pulled. In other words, Jeff is not behind all comments being pulled.


I rarely delete comments and ban users, it is true, but I will do so in obvious troll cases. We have several admins that I leave the banning/deleting to.

Jeff Masters
336. hydrus 14:58 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Some unusual color on the blog today, save the religious stuff..Lookin mighty unsettled in the middle of the U.S. this morning..They took the slight risk out tho..
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337. StormTracker2K 14:59 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    




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338. StormTracker2K 15:03 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Effects of Global Warming on Polar Bears:

Global warming is melting the polar ice caps, robbing polar bears of the ice floes they need to hunt prey. As the annual sea ice melts, polar bears are forced ashore to spend their summers fasting. If the Arctic ice cap continues to melt sooner and form later, polar bears will become too thin to reproduce and they will become extinct by the end of this century.

The polar bear's home – the Arctic – is experiencing the effects of global warming more than any other place. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising at almost twice the rate of that of the rest of the world, and this is threatening to place the entire Arctic ecosystem in jeopardy.

Arctic sea ice is shrinking by what appears to be a greater rate every year – sea ice that not only provides hunting ground for polar bears, but shelter and transportation for seals, walrus, arctic foxes, and the Inuit people. The underside provides a surface for algae that support cod, char, beluga, and narwhal. The white sea ice also has a cooling effect on climate by reflecting light away from Earth's surface. As it melts, the global warming advances even more quickly.

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
340. sar2401 15:45 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)
Member Since: 2 octobre 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 1988
341. hydrus 15:49 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting sar2401:
CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)
Where do you live sar2401?
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314
342. SPLbeater 15:52 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting sar2401:
CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)


old geezers RULE!!! my grandfather knows just bout everything about farming and farm equipment there is to know, lol
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
343. SPLbeater 15:53 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
another thing noone has ever told me and i never asked- what does AGW stand fo?
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3954
344. Neapolitan 15:53 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Something interesting, and tied to the subject of the current blog entry: a distrubing--though not unsurprising--new study has just been published that shows warming continuing "at a steady rate". In the article--published in the journal Environmental Research Letters--raw data from three surface temperature records and two lower-troposhere temperature records have been analyzed, and then, more importantly, "adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability)". In other words, once the "noise" is removed, as climate scientists have been saying all along, "the global warming signal becomes even more evident". In the second graph below, note that, as the abstract says, 2009 and 2010 are the two hottest years (2011 data is not included). Yikes...

Cooling? Ha!

Cooling? Ha!
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
345. yqt1001 15:54 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
A nice forecast for tomorrow...



High of -10C while a low of 0C. Gonna be a fun day. :P

Well actually, in this case Environment Canada uses the low temperature as the highest temperature at night and the highs as the lowest temperature during the day.

Last time this happened we had a flash freeze day and so no school! :D I'm kinda hoping that this happens again.
Member Since: 19 novembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184
346. TampaSpin 15:55 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting JeffMasters:


I rarely delete comments and ban users, it is true, but I will do so in obvious troll cases. We have several admins that I leave the banning/deleting to.

Jeff Masters



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
347. SPLbeater 15:55 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
nice flare
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348. TampaSpin 16:05 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
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349. hydrus 16:11 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting SPLbeater:
nice flare
And it has the mean green..
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350. TampaSpin 16:12 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
If we don't get our Global Debt under control....Control measures of Human Caused Global Warming will spiral out of control. That could become then very scary!

Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
351. sar2401 16:12 GMT le 14 décembre 2011    
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tsunamis on the rise?

A team of scientists say the recent series of terrifying natural disasters could signify the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes.

Video


Aussie, interesting video. I really think one of the main goals should be to reduce the number of false warnings. We'd always have to go down and clear the beach for every warning and, except for a two or three inch rise in ocean level, nothing would happen. That made it much harder to convince to people to get off the beach next time, and we only have a relatively small number of deputies and park rangers for over 100 miles of coastline. We have one area in Sonoma County, CA, where the Russian River meets the Pacific. It's one of the most popular beaches and it's packed on weekends. The trouble is that geologists tell us that, given the offshore topgraphy, the delta area would be subject to a 20-22 foot tsunami under the right conditions. We do our best to clear the area, but everyone just goes back in behind us. If we had to do this less often, and could tell people there was a high probability they'd be killed if they stayed there, that would really help. Right now, no one believes they are in any real danger and we are just being annoying.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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