Damage losses and climate change
During 2011, a series of violent tornado outbreaks hit the Plains and Southeast U.S., bringing an astonishing six billion-dollar disasters in a three-month period. The epic tornado onslaught killed 552 people and brought three of the five largest tornado outbreaks on record in a six-week period, including the largest and most expensive tornado outbreak in U.S. history--the April 25 - 28 Super Outbreak, which did $10.2 billion dollars in damage. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. were at least $25 billion in 2011, more than double the previous record set in 2010. Damages from thunderstorms and tornadoes since 1980 have shown a clear increase since 1980 (Figure 2.) Disaster losses world-wide from weather-related natural disasters have also shown a significant increase in recent years, as has the number of these disasters. But how much of this is due to a change in the climate, and how much might be due to increases in population, wealth, and other factors?
Figure 1. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama after the April 27, 2011 EF-4 tornado. Image credit: NOAA.
Not enough evidence to judge if climate change is affecting tornadoes
As I discussed last week in my post, 2011: Year of the Tornado, as far as we can tell, the number of damaging tornadoes has not increased in recent years, though the quality of the data set is to poor to know for sure. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?, discussed how a better way to assess how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is to look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. The most important ingredients for tornado formation are usually high atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and high amounts of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. Not enough work has been done on the subject to judge whether or not climate change is affecting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, though.
Figure 2. Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 dollars. Data taken from Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE. Image credit: Munich Re.
Are the number of weather-related disasters increasing?
At a talk given last month at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, Mark Bove of Munich Re insurance company examined trends in both damages and number of natural disasters since 1980. These numbers have shown significant increases since 1980. After we take out the increase in disasters reported due to an increasing population, greater wealth, and more advanced communications, is there a trend due to climate change? One way to check is to compare natural disasters due to geophysical events--earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions--to weather-related disasters. Geophysical disasters should remain relatively constant in number in a changing climate (unless sea level rise is occurring so rapidly that it is causing significant changes in stress on earthquake faults, something that is theoretically possible, but has not yet been observed.) If we then look at trends in the number of geophysical disasters versus weather-related disasters reported, it should give us an idea of how much of the recent increase in weather-related disasters may be due to climate change. Between 1980 and 2010, geophysical disasters increased by about a factor of 1.5, while weather-related disasters increased by a factor of 2.7 to 3.5 (Figure 3.) Bove stated that he thought weather-related disasters were likely subject to a higher increase in reporting rate than geophysical disasters, but not enough to account for the huge difference. Climate change was the likely reason for a large portion of the increase in weather-related disasters in recent years, he argued. His talk concluded, "there is quite some probability that natural catastrophe losses are driven already by human-caused climate change."
Figure 3. The number of natural disasters reported has increased markedly worldwide since 1980, particularly for weather-related disasters. Image credit: Munich Re.
However, this conclusion is controversial. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies world-wide, published between 2001 and 2010. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections, bringing up the question whether or not climate change could be responsible for the increased disaster losses. However, Bouwer found that "studies that did find increases after normalization did not fully correct for wealth and population increases, or they identified other sources of exposure increases or vulnerability changes or changing environmental conditions." In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses." He concluded that human-caused climate change "so far has not had a significant impact on losses from natural disasters."
Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though.
Conclusion
Studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger storms is indeed occurring, though the current research does not show this. Looking at disasters losses to make an argument that climate change is affecting our weather is difficult, due to the rarity of extreme events, and the changes in wealth and population that also affect disaster losses. We are better off looking at how the atmosphere, oceans, and glaciers are changing to find evidence of climate change--and there is plenty of evidence there.
References
Tornado researcher Dr. Harold Brooks has a May 2012 op-ed in New Scientist that discusses the difficulty in predicting how climate change will impact tornadoes.
Bouwer, L, 2010, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", BAMS, January 2011, DOI:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1
Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).
Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007, Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109
Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.
Neumayer, E. & Barthel, F. (2011). Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis Global Environmental Change, 21, 13-24.
Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.
Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.
Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Heck at this point i'll take half that amount. Thanks stormtracker
FL as a whole is BONE DRY right now especially after the freeze we had this week. We are at a point right now that we have to start getting some rain because we all know the 90 degree temps are coming fast and we don't need a state on fire come spring.
Link
LOL! I bet. Geesh! I was 2 yrs old then.
It was nearing 50 on Christmas and now negative. That is very impressive. I knew La-Nina would weaken but heck it maybe gone completely by mid March.
Sorry the image didn't work...
What about the Ohio Valley? I am no doubt a fan of snow, but we have only received a little over an inch for entire winter season to date.
We have to watch after La Nina is gone and reaches Neutral Enso,how it mantains to see if El Nino forms rapidly,slowly or it stays Neutral all the way thru the Summer and Fall,and whatever happens will have big implications on how the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season will be in terms of activity.
Plenty of conspiracy theorists/deniers have gone to great lengths in trying to claim the climate is not changing, that temperatures are not warming, and it's all some massive communist plot for evil climate scientists to take over the world.
Seriously, I'm not making that up. Just read some of the crazy stuff posted on McIntyre's and Watt's sites.
Arguing over terminology is not very constructive. Climate change historically has been pretty devastating to life forms on the planet. Significant warming and cooling both result in die-offs. So saying climate change is just a natural cycle makes it sound like something that isn't so bad, when in reality significant shifts in climate have had serious consequences. Even regional shifts in our relatively short history have resulted in entire civilizations vanishing.
Climate change IS harmful. Life that can not adapt dies off. Natural predators vanish, or invasive species can grow into areas where there are no predators. Weather patterns shift that can turn once arable land into desert.
Our agricultural production is dependent on a relatively stable climate. Anything that threatens that stability can and will have significant impacts.
Eventually the climate reaches a new equilibrium and life begins to thrive again, but the process is always disruptive unless the change happen on geological timescales, giving the current life a chance to adapt to the new conditions.
The real intelligent debate is how climate change will affect the planet. Whether or not the current warming is caused by humans is pretty well established at this point.
Most of the current research is going into getting a better idea of what the impacts will be and what to do about it. That not only includes the magnitude of the warming but the regional impacts as well.
Rapid changes have happened in the past, usually as a result of some cataclysmic event. At other points the change happened more slowly, but it has always negatively impacted life on the planet until it adapted to the new conditions. Once life adapted to the new conditions it would thrive again until a new set of changes or the next event came along.
Rapid planetary changes are never a good thing for those who are currently on the planet. Even us big brained homo sapiens almost went extinct 70,000 years ago as a result of the Toba super-volcano, which ushered in rapid climate change.
And once again, you should read the current literature on the subject. The evidence strongly indicates that human activity is the cause for the current warming. Climatologists studying global warming have moved well beyond establishing the culprit and are now focused on what's going to happen as a result.
The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.
"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years.1
Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. Studying these climate data collected over many years reveal the signals of a changing climate.
Certain facts about Earth's climate are not in dispute:
The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many JPL-designed instruments, such as AIRS. Increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.
Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in solar output, in the Earth’s orbit, and in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even thousands.
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI
8 Dec 2011 1013.37 1005.15 23.35 16.20 12.02
9 Dec 2011 1012.06 1005.10 16.81 16.30 12.07
10 Dec 2011 1010.93 1006.80 2.13 16.07 12.03
11 Dec 2011 1010.80 1007.70 -3.22 15.90 12.04
12 Dec 2011 1012.95 1007.75 7.68 15.92 12.24
13 Dec 2011 1014.96 1007.20 20.97 16.27 12.56
14 Dec 2011 1014.79 1006.00 26.31 16.65 12.84
15 Dec 2011 1014.61 1005.55 27.71 17.23 13.07
16 Dec 2011 1015.28 1005.10 33.52 18.33 13.21
17 Dec 2011 1014.33 1005.15 28.34 19.43 13.25
18 Dec 2011 1012.70 1005.45 18.32 20.12 13.27
19 Dec 2011 1013.06 1005.55 19.67 20.20 13.29
20 Dec 2011 1013.25 1005.00 23.51 20.44 13.40
21 Dec 2011 1012.64 1004.55 22.68 20.76 13.60
22 Dec 2011 1011.46 1002.50 27.19 20.68 13.87
23 Dec 2011 1011.39 1001.05 34.36 20.77 14.11
24 Dec 2011 1012.85 1000.50 44.79 21.60 14.34
25 Dec 2011 1013.80 1000.60 49.20 22.63 14.64
26 Dec 2011 1012.87 1001.25 41.00 23.32 14.82
27 Dec 2011 1012.94 1003.40 30.20 23.44 14.92
28 Dec 2011 1012.55 1003.55 27.40 23.19 15.00
29 Dec 2011 1011.96 1004.65 18.63 22.79 14.98
30 Dec 2011 1011.69 1006.15 9.44 22.86 14.88
31 Dec 2011 1011.99 1007.90 1.92 22.60 14.68
1 Jan 2012 1012.46 1007.75 0.48 22.09 14.54
2 Jan 2012 1014.28 1007.65 9.52 21.95 14.56
3 Jan 2012 1015.20 1008.85 8.20 21.54 14.66
4 Jan 2012 1015.26 1009.20 6.84 20.91 14.86
5 Jan 2012 1013.90 1008.80 2.31 20.09 15.05
6 Jan 2012 1012.86 1009.10 -4.00 19.18 15.13
Euro also developes a Gulf low at 168hrs. This feature in not on the GFS yet but i expect this to show up on future runs.
He was a good man with a extraordinary Mind.
Terence Kemp McKenna (November 16, 1946 – April 3, 2000)
Looks like ONE HECK of a Southern State Snow Storm possibly coming.....Atlanta Might get it really good.
%u201C
I always thought death would come on the freeway in a few horrifying moments, so you'd have no time to sort it out. Having months and months to look at it and think about it and talk to people and hear what they have to say, it's a kind of blessing. It's certainly an opportunity to grow up and get a grip and sort it all out. Just being told by an unsmiling guy in a white coat that you're going to be dead in four months definitely turns on the lights. ... It makes life rich and poignant. When it first happened, and I got these diagnoses, I could see the light of eternity, a la William Blake, shining through every leaf. I mean, a bug walking across the ground moved me to tears.
%u201D
McKenna died on April 3, 2000, at the age of 53, with his loved ones at his bedside. He is survived by his brother Dennis, his son Finn, and his daughter Klea.
not as fast
That Blue/Green Area might be in for a big'n
Article written by Jonathan Amos Science correspondent BBC
Weather satellites and the gathering storm
May have been posted previously. If not thought folks might be interested.
Terrance Mckenna
Looks like one heck of a NorEaster Coming.....YEPPIE.....J/K
The 30 day value is 19.18 now not 21 so that map must be a little old. A drop in the SOI values of this magnitude really need to be watched. A report came out yesterday I believe saying La-nina will be over anywhere between March & May.
I know the site you got that from and the date was 1/3/2012 was when that site was last updated.
Malawi~ em>A two-year-old girl died in Malawi’s northern region district of Rumphi following a heavy hailstorm that hit the area and rendered hundreds of people homeless. The hailstorm which started on 29th December 2011 through to January 2, 2012 has destroyed over 50 houses whose roofs have been blown off. The victims have since sought refuge in school blocks while one old lady has been hospitalized at Rumphi District Hospital after breaking her both legs and an arm, officials in the district have confirmed. The lady has been identified as Edna Kazeze from Chozoli area and she was injured after her house was extensively damaged by the hailstorm. Rumphi District Commissioner Rhodrick Mateauma and Rumphi Police Victor Khamisi both confirmed the tragedy and said the disaster occurred in the area of Chozoli, TA Mwalweni and at Mhuju. The deceased young girl, Keriff Kumwenda, also came from the same area and was confirmed dead by medical personnel at the hospital. A postmortem revealed that she died due to multiple injuries and suffocation. “Medical doctors pronounced the late Keriff BD (brought dead). She died after walls of her parents’ house fell on her,’ “a nurse at Rumphi District Hospital said. The DC said preliminary assessment showed that Chozoli area alone had 16 houses whose roofs were blown off while 40 houses were destroyed at Ntchenachena. “At Mhuju Primary School, some teachers’ houses were also blown off and currently four teachers’ families have been accommodated school blocks,” said Khamisi adding that crops were not spared either. The office of Department of Disaster Preparedness and Relief is yet to come up with an official damage report, said the official. With schools just opened on Tuesday, it is not known how the teachers will cope up with the situation, considering that most schools in the country do not have enough school blocks/classrooms.
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