2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17:22 GMT le 27 janvier 2012

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The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.


Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.

Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.

Jeff Masters

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G,night all...zzzzzzzz
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
And there is that really cold air at the end of the run. The coldest so far I think..Turn the fans on high for the skiing folks..
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting Patrap:
Today is Friday 27 January 2012
Today's Maya Date:
12 . 19 . 19 . 1 . 11
13Chuen
19 Muan
329 days until 13.0.0.0.0


Remember Y2K?

Nothing happens.

Ok, well, there's always the possibility of some cataclysm, but you know what I mean.

Probably a very hot year this year, and more of the same: weather, volcano or two, Earthquake or three, etc.
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
God Bless crew o/Apollo 1. Jan. 27 1967.

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Today is Friday 27 January 2012
Today's Maya Date:
12 . 19 . 19 . 1 . 11
13Chuen
19 Muan
329 days until 13.0.0.0.0

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it means i get to turn the fans on



sigh...
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
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Quoting hydrus:
I am not a gamblin man, but I believe February will bring a variety of severe weather. We get strong tornadoes here in TN during February...Date of tornado outbreak: February 5, 2008
Duration1: 15 hours, 20 minutes
Maximum rated tornado2: EF4 tornado
Tornadoes caused: 87 confirmed
Damages: >$1 billion (2008 USD).[1]
Fatalities: 57
Areas affected: Parts of the Southern United States............................................ .............There was an f-5 rating on a tornado during the 1971 February outbreak.
next round comes wed thur next week
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all whats up with all the quakes the last few days there been a lot some in most be up
its nothing taz its perfectly normal or so they say
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Nice blog Dr. Masters. I've been job searching for several months with no success after graduating with a bachelors in mechanical engineering. I've now decided to apply to grad school to get a masters in atmospheric sciences since weather has always been a passion of mine. I feel once I complete this, I will have a leg up on entering the renewable energy industry and will have great knowledge. I feel the industry will only grow so this will be a great scene to work in.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it means i get to turn the fans on
I am not a gamblin man, but I believe February will bring a variety of severe weather. We get strong tornadoes here in TN during February...Date of tornado outbreak: February 5, 2008
Duration1: 15 hours, 20 minutes
Maximum rated tornado2: EF4 tornado
Tornadoes caused: 87 confirmed
Damages: >$1 billion (2008 USD).[1]
Fatalities: 57
Areas affected: Parts of the Southern United States............................................ .............There was an f-5 rating on a tornado during the 1971 February outbreak.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
'The First Cycle': Borre Akkersdijk's Stop-Motion Robots Make A Jacket (VIDEO)

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Record new lows for January on the sea ice chart -

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_i mages/N_stddev_timeseries.png
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hey all whats up with all the quakes the last few days there been a lot some in most be up
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115376
Quoting hydrus:
It means Google Polar Vortex...Link
it means i get to turn the fans on
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Tags: Blizzard, Cold of 1899, February 1899, Mississippi River freezing

Four consecutive days during the winter of 1899 brought extreme harsh conditions to North America. Known as “The Great Cold Wave”, many record-setting low temperatures which were set still hold to this day in many cities.

On February 14, Tallahassee, Florida saw temperatures as cold as -2°F (-18.9° C). This is still the coldest temperature ever recorded in Florida. Other locations that saw rare low temperatures include Dallas, Texas at -10°F (-23.3° C), Kansas City, Missouri at -22°F (-30° C), and Scottsbluff, Nebraska at -45°F (-42.8° C). All records which still stand.

This was the year when the Mississippi River froze its entire length down to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, some ice even flowed into the Gulf. In places like Cairo, Illinois the thickness of the ice was 13 inches. Ice two inches thick reached New Orleans and ice an inch thick was observed at the mouth of the river.

Map of Mississippi River

During the approximate four day stretch, many places were lucky if the high temperature reach zero degrees. The Blizzard of 1899 was a benchmark storm for the South. Florida still measures their snowfall totals for a day or storm against the 1899 storm, sometimes referred to as the “greatest cold snap in American history.”

Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
I had to post this...The 1899 Mother of All Cold Waves...The "mother of all cold waves" was how meteorologist Ken Batty described the record-shattering cold spell that gripped the country from Texas to Maine in February 1899.

The cold was so intense, so persistent and so wide-spread that it must have seemed, at the time, as though a new ice age was in progress. The chill begin on February 4, when a Canadian cold front raced southward deep into central Texas. The frigid weather across the state was enhanced by a reinforcing surge of polar air on February 8. Finally, a massive outbreak of arctic air sank deep into the country on February 10, eventually surging as far south as El Salvador and setting all-time cold weather records from the Plains to the Atlantic coast.

Across the Midwest and along the Atlantic Coast, as well as in Texas, the lowest temperatures generally occurred between February 10-13. During this period, Cleveland, Ohio (-16 degrees), Washington, D.C (-15 degrees), Tallahassee, Florida (-2 degrees) and New Orleans (7 degrees) each set all-time low temperature records. Snow blanketed the Big Easy and much of the south while ice hampered shipping along the lower Mississippi River.

In Galveston, the numbing 8 degree low and 25 degree high observed on February 12, remain the coldest minimum and maximum temperatures ever for the city. When the mercury plunged again to 10 degrees the next day, a thin layer of ice spread over all of Galveston Bay except for the main channel. Nearby, Houston noted an all-time low of 5 degrees. Elsewhere in Texas, Ft. Worth reported a -8 degree minimum, Austin, -1 degrees, San Antonio, 4 degrees and Laredo, 5 degrees, each setting new all-time cold temperature records.

In Texas, the Panhandle had the worst impact from the unusual cold as thousands of head of livestock perished in the uncharacteristic chill. Tulia, Texas had eleven mornings where the mercury fell below 10 degrees, including four where the temperature dipped below zero. When the thermometer registered -23 degrees there on February 12, an all-time low temperature record was set for the state (later tied in 1933). On that same day, nearby Wolf Creek, Texas reported an unofficial temperature of -30 degrees.

While the folks in 1899 suffered greatly under the onslaught of penetrating cold and snow, it is hard to imagine how much worse the impact would be in today's technologically advanced, but perhaps more vulnerable society.

Photo above: A frozen water fountain is pictured in Galveston during the record-breaking 1899 cold snap. Photo courtesy of the Rosenberg Library and Texas History Center.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting hydrus:
I remember that one. Look at the two 7 degree readings in Florida...
I remember our mom didn't send us to school because it was so cold.I still remember her saying "no child of mine is going out in that cold even if you have school."So the ending result was that we had cabin fever.Our pipes had frozen to so we had to use bottled water.Of course I wouldn't want a repeat of that.but I would still like to know.....where sis winter???
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Quoting bappit:

I followed that link and it in turn links to Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak.

Edit: but we are talking about 384/24 days from now.
The effects of the outbreak were damaging. At least 126 deaths were blamed on the cold snap, and 90 percent of the citrus crop in Florida was destroyed in what the state called the "Freeze of the Century.".Florida's citrus industry suffered $1.2 billion in losses ($2.3 billion in 2009 dollars) as a result of the inclement weather. The public inauguration of President Ronald Reagan for his second term was held in the Capitol Rotunda instead of outside due to the cold weather, canceling the inaugural parade in the process. (Because Inauguration Day fell on a Sunday, Reagan took a private oath on January 20 and the semi-public oath on January 21.)
U.S. State Record Lows set in 1985



Colorado: -61F Feb 1 1985
North Carolina: -34F Jan 21 1985
South Carolina: -19F Jan 21 1985
Utah: -69F Feb 1 1985
Virginia: -30F Jan 22 1985
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting bappit:

I followed that link and it in turn links to Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak.

Edit: but we are talking about 384/24 days from now.
I remember that one. Look at the two 7 degree readings in Florida...
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting Patrap:
Model Loops
wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi.../compositemaster_latest .cgi?...GFS.


Excellent Pat....Thank you..It has only been like that on a couple runs, have to wait and see if there is some consistency. Definite looks impressive on the last run, and it looked like it was still cruisin south on the last frame.
Quoting bappit:

I followed that link and it leads to Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak.

Edit: but we are talking about 384/24 days from now.



Very true Bap..But check out the troughs digging deeper with each pass....Thanx again Pat for linkLink
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... storms like this are resistant and able to intensify quickly.....but...?

I remember there was this one 'cane which had such cold cloud tops but never strengthened despite the coold cloud tops, maybe it was just me..but it was some sorta 'cane this year.
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Quoting Grothar:


You are right on that one, TA. When you see that much orange, that is some serious cold tops in this thing. It borders on the bizarre. But then again, so does this blog sometimes.



yes... storms like this are resistant and able to intensify quickly.....but...?
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Quoting hydrus:
It means Google Polar Vortex...Link

I followed that link and it in turn links to Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak.

Edit: but we are talking about 384/24 days from now.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What does that mean?
It means Google Polar Vortex...Link
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Model Loops
wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi.../compositemaster_latest .cgi?...GFS.


Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting hydrus:
I cannot link the 384 hour GFS here. It is very interesting as it has the polar vortex diving south near the U.S. / Canadian border..Here is the 168 hour...
What does that mean?
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I cannot link the 384 hour GFS here. It is very interesting as it has the polar vortex diving south near the U.S. / Canadian border..Here is the 168 hour...
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What the heck? That's the intensest convection I have ever seen on a tropical cyclone. That's below -100C!





You are right on that one, TA. When you see that much orange, that is some serious cold tops in this thing. It borders on the bizarre. But then again, so does this blog sometimes.

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Today's comic relief.

How it Should Have Ended

hehe.
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well then.... I see the direction this is headed. I'm out so I can avoid the AGW arguement. Again, those who know where to find me, I'll be there. There at the "happy place".



(Ostrich plunges head into sand.)
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I'm not understanding the graph with the la nina and el nino. i thought that 2010 was an la nina year and 2009,2006 was an el nino years?
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Jet Lag: What's Causing One of the Driest, Warmest Winters in History?
The jet stream controls winter weather, but strange forces are controlling the jet stream this season

A little snow and rain are falling in a few states today, but the 2011-12 winter has been extremely warm and dry across the continental U.S. Meteorologists think they have figured out why.

First, a few records: The initial week of January was the driest in history. And more than 95 percent of the U.S. had below-average snow cover-the greatest such percentage ever recorded-according to some intriguing data maps generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. During December, approximately half of the U.S. had temperatures at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and more than 1,500 daily record highs were set from January 2 to 8. Europe has seen similar extremes.

The chief suspect behind the mysterious weather is an atmospheric pressure pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, which circles the high Northern Hemisphere. Its lower edge is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Together, the related features influence the path and strength of the jet stream. The jet itself is an air current that flows west to east across the northern latitudes of the U.S., Europe and Asia, altering temperature and precipitation as portions of it dip southward or crest northward. A strong jet stream that flows in a somewhat straight line from west to east, with few southward dips, prevents cold arctic air from drifting south. "The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded," according to Jeffrey Masters, a meteorologist who runs the Weather Underground, a Web site that analyzes severe weather data.

By "extreme," Masters means that the jet stream was far north and fairly straight, and stayed that way for an unusually long time. That position allowed warm southern air to prevail over the entire U.S., and prevented cold fronts from descending from the north and clashing with warm fronts, creating large snow- and rainstorms. The jet stream has been locked in that position by the NAO for most of the winter, and Masters says it has sustained the largest pressure gradient since tracking began in 1865.

Conversely, December 2010 set record snowfalls in many parts of the U.S. Sure enough, the NAO at that time had some of the lowest pressures ever observed, allowing the jet stream to move south and stay there. Arctic air descended, picked up moisture or interacted with warm fronts, and dropped snow. "The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years," Masters notes, "with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record." Data for the trends is available at the Weather Underground site.

Meteorologists are not certain what causes the oscillations to vary so dramatically. Some scientists say the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming is causing the Arctic Oscillation to drop in pressure. Others have noticed a correlation with sunspot activity, which was very low in December 2010 and very high during December 2011, although they haven't proposed a mechanism whereby sunspots would directly alter the Arctic Oscillation.

Of course, winter has many weeks to go, so the oscillations, and U.S. weather, could shift. But if plentiful precipitation does not fall, complications could arise for many more people than ski resort owners and their patrons. A small snowpack often leads to spring droughts in the Midwest and summer water shortages in the West as well as a longer wildfire season in the latter because the soil dries out earlier than usual.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah Florida overall has been pretty quiet severe weather wise no matter what way you look at things over the last several years even compared to how it was when we moved here in the 90's.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah Florida overall has been pretty quiet severe weather wise no matter what way you look at things over the last several years even compared to how it was when we moved here in the 90's.
The most memorable 90,s storms for me were 1990,s T.S Marco, which was rather nasty out on Boca Grande. The June 1992 tropical depression, which dumped 25 inches of rain on us. Andrew of course. T.S Gordon in 94, which made a mess of our marina. 1995,s Erin, which made landfall twice, once as a cat-2.. 1998 Georges, which whacked the Keys, and 99,s Irene, which was a particularly vicious storm for South Florida..I had to post Irene because it made the sky the weirdest peach color before landfall...Very eerie
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21850
Quoting bappit:
Somebody asked conspiracy theorists what they thought.

"It's known that people who believe one conspiracy theory are inclined to endorse others as well. But new research shows that conspiracy theorists aren't put off by contradictory theories and offers a reason why.

"'They're explained by the overarching theory that there is some kind of cover-up, that authorities are withholding information from us,' said Karen Douglas, a study researcher and reader in the school of psychology sciences at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom. 'It's not that people are gullible or silly by having those beliefs. %u2026 It all fits into the same picture.'"

For example:

"'The more people were likely to endorse the idea Princess Diana was murdered, the more they were likely to believe that Princess Diana is alive,' explained Douglas. People who thought it was unlikely she was murdered were also unlikely to think she did not die."

Conclusion:

"The central idea %u2014 that authorities are engaged in massive deceptions intended to further their malevolent goals %u2014 supports any individual theory, to the point that theorists can endorse contradictory ones, according to the team."
ironically, the only thing lacking for a conspiracy theorist is the evidence, the lack thereof most often used as evidential proof... good times ;)
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Somebody asked conspiracy theorists what they thought.

"It's known that people who believe one conspiracy theory are inclined to endorse others as well. But new research shows that conspiracy theorists aren't put off by contradictory theories and offers a reason why.

"'They're explained by the overarching theory that there is some kind of cover-up, that authorities are withholding information from us,' said Karen Douglas, a study researcher and reader in the school of psychology sciences at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom. 'It's not that people are gullible or silly by having those beliefs. … It all fits into the same picture.'"

For example:

"'The more people were likely to endorse the idea Princess Diana was murdered, the more they were likely to believe that Princess Diana is alive,' explained Douglas. People who thought it was unlikely she was murdered were also unlikely to think she did not die."

Conclusion:

"The central idea — that authorities are engaged in massive deceptions intended to further their malevolent goals — supports any individual theory, to the point that theorists can endorse contradictory ones, according to the team."
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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
6:00 AM WST January 28 2012
=================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (977 hPa) located at 20.0S 111.8E or 325 km northwest of Exmouth and 535 km west of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots towards the west Pilbara coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center in northern quadrants
45 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center in northern quadrants
90 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Over the next 48 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving generally southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales may develop near the Pilbara coast between Ningaloo and Mardie by Saturday afternoon and could extend east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay by Sunday evening.

Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal parts of the Pilbara over the weekend and there will continue to be large swells along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo.

A Cyclone WATCH Port Hedland to Mardie and Ningaloo to Coral Bay.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
A wet Australia today and that little storm inland still doing well

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=0&c= satsyn
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Quoting PlazaRed:
If we regard the bar graph at the top of the page as being more or less balanced from 1950-1980,we then get a sharp rise of about .2/c per decade, giving a .4/c rise from 1980-2000. We then see a flat period until 2010.
After 1980 all the La Nina years are also rising positively.
If the 2000-2010 period is to be read as a flat spot and we are now entering another rise period then there are no constraints on this period only being a .2/c per decade period. Of course keeping an open mind which I don't like to do too much as it might lead to vacancy, we could see the flat period continue into the foreseeable future.
I personally think that we might now get a rise of .3/c per decade and if the global map at the top is anything to go by this appears to be more indicative of the future.
What you're saying would be right in line with what climate scientists said just last week:

"2011 was only the ninth warmest year in the GISS analysis of global temperature change, yet nine of the ten warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1880) have occurred in the 21st century. The past year has been cooled by a moderately strong La Nina. The 5-year (60-month) running mean global temperature hints at a slowdown in the global warming rate during the past few years. However, the cool La Nina phase of the cyclically variable Southern Oscillation of tropical temperatures has been dominant in the past three years, and the deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data occurred over the past half dozen years. We conclude that the slowdown of warming is likely to prove illusory, with more rapid warming appearing over the next few years."

Anyway, just for fun, I tallied up some preliminary January to-date monthly climate data for nine different locations in the continental U.S.:

Chicago, IL: average high 37 / average low 21 / daily average 29 / average departure 5
Cleveland, OH: 38 / 25 / 32 / 4
Denver, CO: 50 / 21 / 36 / 5
Huntsville, AL: 57 / 37 / 47 / 6
Minneapolis, MN: 30 / 15 / 23 / 7
Oklahoma City, OK: 55 / 30 / 43 / 4
Paducah, KY: 50 / 29 / 40 / 5
Portland, ME: 35 / 17 / 26 / 4
Rapid City, SD: 42 / 18 / 30 / 3

...and for good measure:

Fairbanks, AK: -16 / -34 / -25 / -16
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13623
This date and NASA have some really bad Mojo.

Thankfully, no one was injured



Eggner Ferry Bridge Hit By Delta Mariner Ship In Kentucky (PHOTOS)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. The voyage of a cargo boat that carries space rocket components to Florida's coast for NASA and the Air Force has stalled in a western Kentucky river after it slammed into an aging traffic bridge.

The bow of the Delta Mariner was covered in twisted steel and chunks of asphalt from the two-lane bridge. The boat hit the bridge Thursday night on the Tennessee River on its way to Cape Canaveral, Fla.

Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear has promised speedy work to begin replacing the structure, formerly known as Eggner's Ferry Bridge. The five-story high Delta Mariner was too tall to pass through the portion of the bridge that it struck, and the resulting collision left a 300-foot wide gap.

"We were very fortunate that no one was on the span at that time," Beshear said Friday.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
What the heck? That's the intensest convection I have ever seen on a tropical cyclone. That's below -100C!



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Quoting Neapolitan:
Quoting JeffMasters:
...it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a signicant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

+100,000,000,000


I was using a similar baseball analogy back during the 2005 hurricane season. To me, it was like the juicing scandal in baseball.

It was obvious that something was fundamentally altering the equation, which was record heat in the ocean from global warming.
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The Truth is out there, but one has to look for it!!!
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Shirley you can't be serious. How much could the climate change in the 6 to 8 thousand years the earth has been around. But I digress, well as Rosanna Rosanna Danna said Never Mind.
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If we regard the bar graph at the top of the page as being more or less balanced from 1950-1980,we then get a sharp rise of about .2/c per decade, giving a .4/c rise from 1980-2000. We then see a flat period until 2010.
After 1980 all the La Nina years are also rising positively.
If the 2000-2010 period is to be read as a flat spot and we are now entering another rise period then there are no constraints on this period only being a .2/c per decade period. Of course keeping an open mind which I don't like to do too much as it might lead to vacancy, we could see the flat period continue into the foreseeable future.
I personally think that we might now get a rise of .3/c per decade and if the global map at the top is anything to go by this appears to be more indicative of the future.
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Quoting Patrap:
High Novelty begins to take over as the Chaos is unlimited in potential..

Welcome to the New Gaia.
Quoting Grothar:



That sounds like something we used to say back in the '60's. It made sense then.


i love you man.
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Well then.... I see the direction this is headed. I'm out so I can avoid the AGW arguement. Again, those who know where to find me, I'll be there. There at the "happy place".
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting JeffMasters:
...it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a signicant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.
+100,000,000,000
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13623
Quoting wxmod:
Some of the Africa global climate change contribution:

Today just like yesterday. Modis


what are you showing
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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