Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:17 GMT le 01 février 2012 +32
Wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades that the United States Department of Agriculture decided last week to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones. Compared to the 1990 version, zone boundaries in the new 2012 edition of the map have generally shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer than the previous map throughout much of the United States. This is mostly a result of using temperature data from a longer and more recent time period. The old 1990 map was based on temperature data from only a 13-year period of 1974-1986, while the new map uses data from the 30-year period 1976-2005.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation

Northwards, ho!
While humans are generally not attuned enough to nature's rhythms to tell if the climate is changing, plants and animals know the climate is changing. Many species of animals, insects, and plants have shifted their ranges poleward and to higher elevations in recent decades because of global warming. The 2007 IPCC report stated that "numerous studies document a progressively earlier spring by about 2.3 to 5.2 days per decade in the last 30 years in response to climate warming. That report also documented over 400 species that have moved their ranges poleward or to higher elevations because of climate change. For example, conifer trees expanded northwards into former tundra areas at a rate of 12 km per year between 1982 - 2000 in portions of Canada (Fillol and Royer, 2003.) Holly plants moved northwards by several hundred kilometers in recent decades into coastal Norway, Northeast Germany, Denmark, and coastal Sweden in response to warming temperatures (Walther et al., 2005.) As the climate continues to warm, plant and animal species previously unknown in many regions will appear, and will disappear from places they used to inhabit.


Figure 2. Change in the boundary line between conifer forest (taiga) and tundra between 1982 (grey line) and 2000 (white line) over Canada. In the grey box marked "Transect", the rate of northwards migration was 12 km per year, or 228 km (142 miles) in nineteen years. Image credit: Fillol and Royer, 2003, "Variability analysis of the transitory climate regime as defined by the NDVI/Ts relationship derived from NOAA-AVHRR over Canada", Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2003. IGARSS '03. Proceedings. 2003 IEEE International.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 151 - 201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

151. hydrus 22:26 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


"w"hat are you trying to prove?
You did not capitalize what at the beginning of your sentence...jk..really..jk..:)..:)
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
152. 1911maker 22:28 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


You misspelled ignorance.

Quoting SPLbeater:


i dont care


And from the mouths of babies......

the source of ignorance is defined (and demonstrated)
Member Since: 25 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
153. StormTracker2K 22:35 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Great news for BONE DRY FL and this is just thru next Tuesday!

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
154. hydrus 22:41 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Cold Weather Alert: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action in one or more regions of England...It is extremely cold there and 100 people have died...Cold Weather Alert service in action

31 January 2012 - This week's cold weather has seen the Met Office issue its first England-wide Level 3 Cold Weather Alert of the winter.

The alert was issued because of the expected frosty nights and low daytime temperatures. We have already seen temperatures as low as -6.2°C in Pershore, Worcestershire, -6.1°C in South Farnborough, Hampshire and -5.7°C in Hurn, Dorset this week and the Level 3 Alert is expected to remain in force until the weekend.

The Met Office Cold Weather Alert service supports the Cold Weather Plan developed by the Department of Health, the Health Protection Agency and Age UK to help reduce the impact of cold weather on people's health in winter.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
155. theamoeba 22:43 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Our votes mean nothing in the presidential election.

The president is not elected by popular vote.

The only reason the popular vote exists is to make you feel like you matter. You don't.


I disagree. We all vote daily, in the way We spend Our money and conduct Our daily lives. The smart money, including the money behind politicians and their campaigns, follows those votes (ignoring opinion polls and other bogosities that don't follow Our spending and behavior patterns) and adjusts accordingly. There is a reason why these folks have the money, and I think this is it. We matter. We are all that matters, politically. To argue otherwise, I think, is a cop-out - a highly unadvisable cop-out in a political system that relies on the active, and informed, participation of its citizens.

I'll have to check on the stats re: electricity generation and its contribution of carbon dioxide to the environment, vs. the contribution made by automobiles (the big donor, last I looked).
Member Since: 6 novembre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
157. hydrus 22:48 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Overdone..
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
158. ScottLincoln 22:50 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting ILwthrfan:Same data-set, bigger picture...blue represents temperature and Co2 is in green. Notice the correlation between the two. They mirror each other perfectly, so we do know that increasing Co2 = higher temperature. I am curious to your point of view on this data?


Technically it isn't the CO2/temperature record that has led to the understanding that CO2 causes temperature changes as a greenhouse gas. The correlation noted does not automatically equal causation. Sometimes people fall into this trap and then the "CO2 lags temperature" argument gets started.

The reason we know there is a causation is because there is a known physical mechanism by which the physical properties of greenhouse gases re-emit longwave energy, some of which returns to the surface of the earth. Increase the amount of energy returning to earth, increase the stored heat energy of the climate system. The mere correlation isn't the point - CO2's ability to remit longwave radiation, known for over a century, is.
Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1593
159. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:54 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Tracking a confirmed tornado on the ground:

Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25359
160. dogsgomoo 22:56 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
High Novelty Human Tragedy with rescue underway at Soccer Stadium Match in Egypt.



Have you ever gone by the name of Ike on another forum? You're method of communicating is pleasantly familiar.

/end off topic (there is a topic?)
Member Since: 4 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
161. NativeSun 23:06 GMT le 01 février 2012    
RTSplayer, Sarcasm flag on, of course over population is causing this mess we are in.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
162. hydrus 23:08 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And to think, that small piece of foam is the direct cause as to why we saw the shuttle's final go last year.
Hole in RCC leading-edge panel, a result of impact testing in the investigation of the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Soft polyurethane foam impacted this mock-up of a space shuttle wing at approximately 850 km/h.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
163. hydrus 23:09 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
164. hurricanehunter27 23:20 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Overdone..
What in gods name is coming off the Pacific?
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
166. hurricanehunter27 23:27 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


POOF
(DELETED)
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
167. SPLbeater 23:28 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
First question that goes through peoples minds when they meet you.

Sry could not help myself. Just trying to have some fun.


fun...want fun on this blog, then talk about the weather or something atleast related to it. seems anything people talk about is politics n other crap.

Said it to WxGeekVA. I dont argue anymore, i just hit ignore.


And for the 4th time...if i am a troll, so is all of wunderground.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
168. KoritheMan 23:28 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


POOF


ITT, we poof everyone who calls us out on something we're actually guilty of.

Kid, eventually you're going to have to face reality.
Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
169. SPLbeater 23:29 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hey Taz.


who the heck you callin Taz?
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
170. Xyrus2000 23:30 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi ILwthrfan, Texas is part of the Desert Southwest, there always will be droughts in that part of the country (dust bowl years) and there have been droughts in that part of the country and flooding in the midwest long before this climate change agenda came to be. We have very little control over the cooling and warming of this planet, like I said before we dont posses the knowledge to say CO2 is 100% the cause of climate change. If CO2 was a major gas and a pollutant than maybe their would be some concern. We can't predict the weather from week to week with our models, how are we going to predict whats going to happen 80 to 100 years from now with the climate models. I'll bet the next 20 to 30 years the earth will continue to cool as it is now and everyone will be calling for an Ice Age ala the 70s.


Your basing your entire argument off false assumptions, false attributions, and incorrect information. You should read the IPCC report, which is a collective summary of the science about climate and climate change.

Then, even if you disagree, you will be able to form much better arguments. Know thy enemy and all that.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1018
171. hurricanehunter27 23:30 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting SPLbeater:


fun...want fun on this blog, then talk about the weather or something atleast related to it. seems anything people talk about is politics n other crap.

Said it to WxGeekVA. I dont argue anymore, i just hit ignore.


And for the 4th time...if i am a troll, so is all of wunderground.
Lol, I stated to you previously that I know your not. "want fun on this blog, then talk about the weather or something atleast related to it." You should really listen to your own advice. I have nothing against you at all was just trying to mess with you a little.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
172. SPLbeater 23:32 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tracking a confirmed tornado on the ground:



where at?
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
173. SPLbeater 23:33 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol, I stated to you previously that I know your not. "want fun on this blog, then talk about the weather or something atleast related to it." You should really listen to your own advice. I have nothing against you at all was just trying to mess with you a little.


Ok then. thank you for not blowing up like the others :D
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
174. SPLbeater 23:36 GMT le 01 février 2012    
92S...going downhill i believe

Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3955
175. washingtonian115 23:45 GMT le 01 février 2012    
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
176. hurricanehunter27 23:46 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Only in Canada...

Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
177. KoritheMan 23:48 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.


Sex, booze, and campfire stories.

Or at least I do.
Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
178. hurricanehunter27 23:49 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.
Hard to explain. Well 50% weather, 30% general science, 10% politics & religion. 10% disagreeing. Sounds about right.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
179. CybrTeddy 23:50 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.


Dec - May.


May - Nov.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280
180. washingtonian115 23:52 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sex, booze, and campfire stories.

Or at least I do.
Oooooookay...I quickly scanned the comments on here after I posted the comment and it would seem more like a weather/climate blog.My wife laughs sometimes and I wonder why.I see nothing on here as of now to laugh at.Seems some people were in serious discussion.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
181. hurricanehunter27 23:53 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dec - May.


May - Nov.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
182. WxGeekVA 23:56 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.


In order of commonness: Climate, Religion, Politics, Weather, and last but not least Chuck Norris.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dec - May.


May - Nov.


This about sums it up.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
183. washingtonian115 23:57 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dec - May.


May - Nov.
The first pic is rather hilarious.My wife is on here more through the May-Nov period.I should expect the same this season.She said it can be pretty wild through that time(May-Nov).That's when people go mad??
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
184. hurricanehunter27 23:57 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Do we have any Redditers on this blog? If so tell me.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
185. hurricanehunter27 23:59 GMT le 01 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
The first pic is rather hilarious.My wife is on here more through the May-Nov period.I should expect the same this season.She said it can be pretty wild through that time(May-Nov).That's when people go mad??
We are all already mad. What goes on in that period of time you mentioned (May-Nov) is just the climax of it all.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
186. WxGeekVA 00:00 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
The first pic is rather hilarious.My wife is on here more through the May-Nov period.I should expect the same this season.She said it can be pretty wild through that time(May-Nov).That's when people go mad??


Sometimes. May-Nov is Troll Season....
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
187. Xyrus2000 00:02 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting htszp:
When I read this blog post, I was really interested to check Google Earth to see how drastically the landscape had changed in Canada. I fully expected to verify what's in this "Northward Expansion of Trees..." map.

Either their methodology for drawing the map is bad or the map is just terrible.

First, there are places that OBVIOUSLY have been forested for quite a long time, but are shown on the map as only gaining trees since 1982 as a result of climate change. Does anyone really think that the parts of the Côte-Nord region of Quebec next to the Saint Lawrence had no trees before 1982. Look at the following locations:
50.43510° N, 64.40846° W
51.95261° N, 62.86960° W
50.67476° N, 64.59611° W
51.31422° N, 58.47182° W
Numerous photos around these areas show that these trees form thick, fully-developed forests. And considering the growth rates of these types of trees in these cold climates, many of these trees must be at least 50 years old. If there is any truth to their map, they must have used an incredibly liberal definition of treeline.

Second, there are some areas which still show up as completely tundra, both from satellite pictures and from recent photographs.
64.512887° N, 101.361422° W appears to me to be within the 2000 treeline, but pictures from the area show complete tundra.

A quick Google search would have clued the authors in to the fact that their analysis methods, or baseline, or something was incorrect.

If the data was only good for their transect, they should have just published that ... and then written another paper for another transect ... and so forth.

Publishing a map like this destroys their credibility.


Your making a false assumption. It doesn't take 50 years for conifer forest to grow. Depending on the type of conifer, the growth rates vary between 1 and 2 feet per year. So you can easily get a full forest within 15 years, let alone 30.

The other assumption you are making is that google earth has recent high res imagery of everywhere on the globe. This is not the case. Underpopulated areas aren't updated nearly as frequently, with some areas being 3 to more then ten years old, imagery wise.

For example, your location for showing tundra vs. trees demonstrates this point exactly. That area only has low res imagery available, making it imposible to tell anything other than the blobby mass of pixels is green. There is no way you can discern one way or another whether it is tundra or trees, though the green may imply trees.

So your arguments don't hold up to scrutiny. Besides, there's no way the could have used Google Earth, since the paper was published in 2003. What they probably used instead were survey maps and fly overs to verify the tree line growth, which is a lot more scientifically valid.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1018
188. washingtonian115 00:05 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Sometimes. May-Nov is Troll Season....
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
We are all already mad. What goes on in that period of time you mentioned (May-Nov) is just the climax of it all.
Well no wonder my wife calls that the "survival season".Nice meeting some of you all.Good night.My wife is going to be back on soon.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
189. AlwaysThinkin 00:10 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is washingtonian115's husband.What do you people discuss/do on here? I just had to get on for one night and see.


Toenail collections and Burt Bacharach. On a loop. Endlessly.
Member Since: 9 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
190. hydrus 00:11 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What in gods name is coming off the Pacific?
Its not as bad as it looks. It is small low pressure areas rotating around a really big low. The Aleutian Low I think.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
191. hurricanehunter27 00:12 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well no wonder my wife calls that the "survival season".Nice meeting some of you all.Good night.My wife is going to be back on soon.
I hope you enjoyed your stay.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
192. hydrus 00:12 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Toenail collections and Burt Bacharach. On a loop. Endlessly.
Man, you need ta quit it...lol
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315
193. washingtonian115 00:25 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Well I see my husband was trying to introduce himself and check it out around here.Looks like he made an account but warns that he will be on once in a while.Lol.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
194. CybrTeddy 00:26 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
The first pic is rather hilarious.My wife is on here more through the May-Nov period.I should expect the same this season.She said it can be pretty wild through that time(May-Nov).That's when people go mad??


Last season it was so wild that people threw their keyboards through the computer screen during Irene.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280
195. Xyrus2000 00:29 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting westernmob:


CFC's have nothing to do with atmospheric CO2 content. Ultraviolet Radiation and Greenhouse Gases are independent of one another.


While CFCs don't affect CO2 content, they are indeed a greenhouse gas. Their destruction of ozone also ends up increasing warming, but it is minor in comparison to their primary effect.

Like CO2, CFCs stay in the atmosphere for a long time. If they weren't banned due to their destructive effects on the ozone, we'd also be seeing more warming as a result of them.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1018
196. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:29 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Today's unexpected severe weather reports:

Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25359
197. Tropicsweatherpr 00:30 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Only 120 days left for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season to start. It seems far away but time goes fast and without noticing,the season will be upon us.

Link
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8272
199. washingtonian115 00:34 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting HRinFM:
have to remember this dude is laid back and chilling and dont need to worry about spell and gram, you know hes layed back, Child, please, momma needs to whip your ass
Really...
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10690
200. hurricanehunter27 00:37 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting HRinFM:
have to remember this dude is laid back and chilling and dont need to worry about spell and gram, you know hes layed back, Child, please, momma needs to whip your ass
I would change that comment ASAP.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3474
201. caneswatch 00:40 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sex, booze, and campfire stories.

Or at least I do.


I do as well, at least with the campfire stories.
Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

Viewing: 151 - 201

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather
Clear
51 ° F
Ciel dégagé
Community Activity