Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:17 GMT le 01 février 2012 +32
Wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades that the United States Department of Agriculture decided last week to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones. Compared to the 1990 version, zone boundaries in the new 2012 edition of the map have generally shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer than the previous map throughout much of the United States. This is mostly a result of using temperature data from a longer and more recent time period. The old 1990 map was based on temperature data from only a 13-year period of 1974-1986, while the new map uses data from the 30-year period 1976-2005.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation

Northwards, ho!
While humans are generally not attuned enough to nature's rhythms to tell if the climate is changing, plants and animals know the climate is changing. Many species of animals, insects, and plants have shifted their ranges poleward and to higher elevations in recent decades because of global warming. The 2007 IPCC report stated that "numerous studies document a progressively earlier spring by about 2.3 to 5.2 days per decade in the last 30 years in response to climate warming. That report also documented over 400 species that have moved their ranges poleward or to higher elevations because of climate change. For example, conifer trees expanded northwards into former tundra areas at a rate of 12 km per year between 1982 - 2000 in portions of Canada (Fillol and Royer, 2003.) Holly plants moved northwards by several hundred kilometers in recent decades into coastal Norway, Northeast Germany, Denmark, and coastal Sweden in response to warming temperatures (Walther et al., 2005.) As the climate continues to warm, plant and animal species previously unknown in many regions will appear, and will disappear from places they used to inhabit.


Figure 2. Change in the boundary line between conifer forest (taiga) and tundra between 1982 (grey line) and 2000 (white line) over Canada. In the grey box marked "Transect", the rate of northwards migration was 12 km per year, or 228 km (142 miles) in nineteen years. Image credit: Fillol and Royer, 2003, "Variability analysis of the transitory climate regime as defined by the NDVI/Ts relationship derived from NOAA-AVHRR over Canada", Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2003. IGARSS '03. Proceedings. 2003 IEEE International.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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351. StormTracker2K 13:30 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Here in FL we have PYTHONS moving north. There's a huge on on the lose near Melbourne. Some say it maybe 12' to 15' long. Infact the Everglades are invaded right now as the Pythons are destroying the wildlife species down there.
Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
352. bohonkweatherman 13:33 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting Jax82:
I dont think the Groundhog has been to the south at all this year, if he had he would not have predicted another 6 weeks of winter, because it has felt like spring all winter long!
I agree with that but Winter could make a late appearance? Mid 80's on my car thermometer yesterday and I got a sunburn working outside. What a difference a year makes, lows in 60s and highs in 80s this year, last year at this time, lows in teens and highs in 20s with snow and ice here. Been a very different La Nina season here so far but I am not complaining, getting quite a bit of rain. Wonder what kind of tropical season we will have? When will our next El Nino be here?
Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
353. CybrTeddy 13:34 GMT le 02 février 2012    
345. So basically, just 6 more weeks for FL of winter? With 83 degree high today, I can live with that. Will probably be 95 degrees by April though.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179
354. StormTracker2K 13:37 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Sightings of medium-sized mammals are down by as much as 99 per cent in areas where the giant constricting snake native to Asia is known to slink, according to scientific research published this week.

The growing concern is that the deadly snakes, that can live for up to 35 years and were originally brought to the Sunshine State for commerical reasons, are now quite at homein the wild and are having a devastating effect on the survival chances of other animals living in America's largest eco-system.

Partial to rabbit, opossum, raccoon, bobcat, birds and even the odd alligator, the Burmese Pythons are believed to have multiplied at such a rate that it is now a question of management rather than elimination for South Florida snake hunters who are trying to protect the world's largest wetlands system from a food chain crisis.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Scientists, says: "These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within Everglades National Park and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations.

"Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities."

Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
355. ILwthrfan 13:50 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting CybrTeddy:
345. So basically, just 6 more weeks for FL of winter? With 83 degree high today, I can live with that. Will probably be 95 degrees by April though.


Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico may reach 95 this summer lol.
Member Since: 2 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006
356. ILwthrfan 13:50 GMT le 02 février 2012    
.
Member Since: 2 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006
357. islander101010 14:35 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here in FL we have PYTHONS moving north. There's a huge on on the lose near Melbourne. Some say it maybe 12' to 15' long. Infact the Everglades are invaded right now as the Pythons are destroying the wildlife species down there.
i can do without the coons and dont forget those scumbag rats. no shortage around here
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2964
358. Jax82 14:53 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I agree with that but Winter could make a late appearance? Mid 80's on my car thermometer yesterday and I got a sunburn working outside. What a difference a year makes, lows in 60s and highs in 80s this year, last year at this time, lows in teens and highs in 20s with snow and ice here. Been a very different La Nina season here so far but I am not complaining, getting quite a bit of rain. Wonder what kind of tropical season we will have? When will our next El Nino be here?


Well, I think we can expect a lot of DOOM, considering they are predicting the world to end this year. I'm sure we'll see another active hurricane season :)
Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
359. SPLbeater 14:59 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Morning all.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953
360. entrelac 15:14 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting biff4ugo:
They are trucking water to folks in Texas too that have run out of their water sources. It is sad that it takes till NOW for them to think of not growing lawns with their drinking water.
To be fair, the residents of Spicewood Beach were not made aware of the low level of their wells until it was time to truck water in. And, in the months leading up to the wells running dry millions of gallons of water were sold

At least 1.3 million gallons and maybe more were sold from the Spicewood Beach water system to those two customers. The LCRA says tonight in an email to StateImpact Texas that in 2011, 1.3 million gallons alone were sold from the Spicewood Beach water system to Hank Cantu's operation, Hills of Texas Bulk Water. Another 3.5 million gallons were sold to Larry Ogden, who owns Wildcat Bulk Water Services. The LCRA says they think most of Ogden's water purchases were from the nearby West Travis County Water System and not from Spicewood Beach. However, they "don't have exact amounts for each system because this customer uses a portable meter on his truck," the LCRA said in the email.


It's a pretty epic fail.

Source Article
Member Since: 18 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
361. sunlinepr 15:36 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
And here's the latest Tropical Weather Report


160 die as Eastern Europe sinks further into deep freeze
Posted on February 2, 2012
February 2, 2012 – POLAND - A cold snap kept Europe in its icy grip on Thursday, pushing the death toll to 160 as countries from Italy to Ukraine struggled to cope with temperatures that plunged to record lows in some places. Nine more people died in Poland overnight as temperatures hit minus 32 Celsius (minus 25.6 Fahrenheit) in the southwest, bringing the overall toll to 29 since the deep freeze began last week, national police said. In Ukraine, tens of thousands of people have headed to shelters trying to escape the freeze that the emergencies ministry said has now killed 63 people. Most of them literally froze to death on the street, with only a handful making it to hospital before succumbing to hypothermia, the ministry said. Shivering and hungry, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have sought help in the more than 2,000 temporary shelters set up by the authorities to help the poor survive the fearsome spell of cold weather. The shelters offer warmth and hot food in a country where temperatures fell to minus 33 degrees Celsius in the Carpathians in the west of the country and minus 27 in the capital Kiev. “I am unemployed. I have somewhere to live but nothing to eat. I ate here and it was good — bread with a slice of fat and an onion as well as porridge,” said Olexander Shemnikov, an out-of-work engineer after visiting a shelter in Kiev.


Frigid cold: In Romania, eight people died overnight because of the cold, bringing the overall toll to 22, the health ministry said. Schools remained closed in some parts of the country as temperatures reached minus 31 degrees Celsius. In Bulgaria, where the mercury dipped to lows not seen in a century, at least 10 people have died, according to media. Authorities have not released official figures. With parts of the Danube freezing, authorities moved some vessels to ports further away to protect them from the advancing ice. And in the capital Sofia, some residents found their money frozen as automated teller machines stopped functioning, according to local media. In Latvia, 10 people have died around the capital Riga alone, with no figures available for the rest of the country. In neighboring Lithuania a 55-year-old homeless man found in the ruins of an abandoned house in the port city of Klaipeda became the ninth victim of the chill. In Italy, hundreds of people were trapped overnight on trains as freezing temperatures and heavy snowfalls in the centre and north caused widespread chaos on roads, railways and at airports. The cold has so far killed an infant in Sicily and a 76-year-old pensioner in Parma during what forecasters say is the coldest weather in Italy in 27 years. In Austria, an 83-year-old woman was found frozen to death in the woods after apparently slipping on her daily walk and not managing to get up again, becoming the country’s second victim of the cold snap, officials said. In Serbia, the cold has killed seven people and trapped some 11,500 others, mostly in remote mountain villages inaccessible by road. -AFP
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439
362. ProgressivePulse 15:38 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Morning All.

IS01WU (Interesting System 01 WUnderground) is being mentioned now in the MIA NWS discussion. Could be a wet several days for many in the peninsula. I am wondering if atmospheric triggers, other than the NINO3/4 region, have already lined up and pointing to a transition to El Nino. This hypothetical system bears the markings of such.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 021455
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
955 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY THE GREAT
PLAINS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES E AND MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N FLA AND STALLING. THE ATLC
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLA. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
.LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE
TOWARD S FLA. ISENTROPIC LIFTS DEVELOPS AND THE PROSPECT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...NOT JUST THE E
COAST... APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING.
Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322
363. hydrus 15:50 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

IS01WU (Interesting System 01 WUnderground) is being mentioned now in the MIA NWS discussion. Could be a wet several days for many in the peninsula. I am wondering if atmospheric triggers, other than the NINO3/4 region, have already lined up and pointing to a transition to El Nino. This hypothetical system bears the markings of such.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 021455
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
955 AM EST THU FEB 2 2012

EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY THE GREAT
PLAINS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES E AND MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N FLA AND STALLING. THE ATLC
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLA. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
.LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE
TOWARD S FLA. ISENTROPIC LIFTS DEVELOPS AND THE PROSPECT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...NOT JUST THE E
COAST... APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING.
It is true that when El-Nino is around, Florida gets about three times its normal rainfall during the wintertime. I do believe that La-Nina is still in the weather pattern. Really good post PP.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14244
364. SPLbeater 16:09 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Can somebody explain the logic to me in this...

So today, i had 6 school lessons. tomorrow, only 2. WHy couldnt it be balanced out at 4 today n tomorrow?
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953
365. SPLbeater 16:12 GMT le 02 février 2012    


Maybe when dis system comes off Cape York peninsula it will develop into TC...hopefully :D
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953
366. SPLbeater 16:19 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Australian Bureau of Meteorlology forecasts the low with med. chance to move off the coast in a general ESE to SE direction, maybe around 995-992mb in the next 4 days
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953
367. sunlinepr 16:25 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439
368. NativeSun 16:41 GMT le 02 février 2012    
New Russian paper on the coming Ice Age. View it on Weatherbell Joe D site. Interesting article more food for thought.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
369. hcubed 17:05 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Chuck is not so bad.. In fact, he was a true world champion...On November 24, 1968, he avenged his defeat to Delgado and by doing so won the Professional Middleweight Karate champion title, which he held for six consecutive years.[8] In 1969, he won Karate's triple crown for the most tournament wins of the year, and the Fighter of the Year award by Black Belt Magazine. Chuck Norris retired with a karate record of 183–10–2.


Wait a second - there are actually 2 people in the world that were able to beat Chuck Norris?

Put THAT into your resume, and get hired on the spot.

Member Since: 18 mai 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 1638
370. snotly 17:30 GMT le 02 février 2012    
It was Chuck Norris of the future and Chuck Norris of the past, he only admitted defeat because he always was so awesome and he will yet be so awesome.


Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - there are actually 2 people in the world that were able to beat Chuck Norris?

Put THAT into your resume, and get hired on the spot.

Member Since: 27 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 657
371. sunlinepr 19:48 GMT le 02 février 2012    
Quoting hcubed:


Wait a second - there are actually 2 people in the world that were able to beat Chuck Norris?

Put THAT into your resume, and get hired on the spot.



I just read in a recent newspaper that someone called Bruce Lee defeated him in the Roman Coliseum....

Where are my Alzheimers pills? ....

Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439
372. georgevandenberghe 18:31 GMT le 06 février 2012    
Although Global Warming is certainly happening, this plant hardiness map is not the best evidence of it. I am old enough to remember three generations of these maps. The first in the early 70s looked more like the most recent version. The second issued in 1990 shifted the hardiness zones to the south, probably because of several extreme arctic outbreaks during the 1980s. The third, modern version
looks similar to the early 70s version but does have the hardiness
zones shifted a little to the north of the 70s version.

Growers who uses these maps also need to be aware of what the
occasional extreme arctic outbreak or an extreme winter can do
to high visibility high value plantings.
Member Since: 1 février 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 248

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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