Six more weeks of non-winter
Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!
On Gobbler's Knob on this magnificent Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2012
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
was summoned from his burrow in the old oak stump
by the tap of President Bill Deedly.
He greeted his handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha.
After casting an appreciative glance towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed
As I look at the crowd on Gobbler's Knob
Many shadows do I see
So six more weeks of winter it must be!
That's the official word posted at groundhog.org from Punxsutawney Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow this morning. According to tradition, this means that a solid six more weeks of winter can be expected across the U.S. When the sun rises in San Francisco, this morning, wunderground's Alan T. Groundhog can give us an additional shadow-based forecast for the coming winter (video here.)
Figure 1. Wunderground's prognosticating groundhog, Alan T. Groundhog, prepares to go in front of the blue screen with wunderground meteorologist Jessica Parker.
How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas. On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.
What winter? The non-winter of 2011 - 2012
Considering winter hasn't really arrived in the lower 48 states yet, I'm not sure how much validity we can give to fearless Phil's forecast. Here in Michigan, like in most of the U.S., we've basically had three straight months of November weather. There have been no major snowstorms, and frequent sunny days with highs in the 50s--twenty five degrees above average. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model showing a huge ridge of high pressure dominating the Western U.S. and no major snowstorms over the U.S. through mid-February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history. Temperature statistics for January will not be available until next week, but I expect the month will end up being a top-five warmest January, with temperatures about 4 - 5°F above average. We won't be able to beat the 8.7°F above-average temperature posted during the warmest January in U.S. history, which occurred in 2006. If U.S. temperatures remain 4 - 5°F above average during February, the winter of 2011 - 2012 will be the warmest in U.S. history. The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 - 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895 (Figure 2.)
Figure 2. Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 - 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 - 2000, and the coldest was 1978 - 1979. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
What's going on?
This January's remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what's been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48's unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream's strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that's what we've been seeing in Europe this week. This cold air has yet to spill southwards into the Eastern U.S. like it usually does during a negative-AO period, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--the component of the AO over the North Atlantic--has not gone negative, and is close to normal right now. However, the long-range GFS model is predicting a modest cold air outbreak will occur over the Eastern U.S. around February 15.
Jeff Masters
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Region: VANUATU
Geographic coordinates: 17.810S, 167.149E
Magnitude: 6.9 Mw
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 2 Feb 2012 13:34:38
Time near the Epicenter: 3 Feb 2012 00:34:38
Local standard time in your area: 2 Feb 2012 13:34:38
Location with respect to nearby cities:
122 km (76 miles) W (267 degrees) of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu
253 km (157 miles) S (180 degrees) of Santo (Luganville), Vanuatu
294 km (183 miles) NW (310 degrees) of Isangel, Vanuatu
1805 km (1122 miles) NE (56 degrees) of Brisbane, Australia
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
342 AM HST THU FEB 02 2012
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0335 AM HST 02 FEB 2012
COORDINATES - 17.9 SOUTH 167.2 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.9 MOMENT
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
"The United States' smallest meteorologist must be scratching his head about now.
Each February for the past 125 years, Punxsutawney Phil -- the Pennsylvanian groundhog long considered a living symbol of Groundhog Day -- has sauntered from his burrow to cast a shadow on the weeks and months ahead. His predictions, though not always accurate, are cheered by hundreds of fans who flock to his den at Gobbler's Knob, a wooded hillock just outside the town that bears his name.
The ground rules for Phil's tradition have always been clear: If the groundhog sees his shadow, six weeks of winter are yet to come; if no shadow appears, then spring is on its way.
But with cold weather stubbornly absent across much of the Northeast this year and spring seemingly already under way, Phil may have beaten Old Man Winter to the punch. Now it's anybody's guess what a groundhog's shadow may portend.
"NEWS FLASH: Groundhog Day cancelled! Phil says he's pretty sure spring *already* arrived in western PA, preempting tomorrow's event," joked climate scientist Michael Mann in a Twitter post yesterday."
Article...
Jan.5 2012
Arctic sea ice extent remained unusually low through December, especially in the Barents and Kara seas. In sharp contrast to the past two winters, the winter of 2011 has so far seen a generally positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a weather pattern that helps to explain low snow cover extent and warmer than average conditions over much of the United States and Eastern Europe. In Antarctica, where summer is beginning, sea ice extent is presently above average. Hmm?
Link
I guess there is a update coming soon on Europe!
Climate Change Indicators in the United States
Collecting and interpreting environmental indicators play a critical role in our understanding of climate change and its causes. An indicator represents the state of certain environmental conditions over a given area and a specified period of time. Examples of climate change indicators include temperature, precipitation, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
EPA's Climate Change Indicators in the United States (PDF) (80 pp, 13.3MB) report will help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, each describing trends related to the causes and effects of climate change. It focuses primarily on the United States, but in some cases global trends are presented to provide context or a basis for comparison. EPA will use these indicators to examine long-term data sets to:
Track the effects/impacts of climate change in the United States
Assist decision–makers on how to best use policymaking and program resources to respond to climate change
Assist EPA and its constituents in evaluating the success of their climate change efforts
Australian Goverment BOM forecasts 95P to move in general ESE to SE dorection in the next 4 days, maybe fluctuating between 996-992mb.
Long term...
..Saturday through Wednesday...
Checking the old memory and last week European model (ecmwf) runs initially held
back a trough north and west of the lower Mississippi with
southwest moist flow for the upcoming weekend. However...GFS and European model (ecmwf)
both switched places with solutions at times...but latest runs are in
some agreement with some closed low over the middle Mississippi with
associated axis extending west over the Saturday into Sunday. West
flow on the south side will entrain dry and tightened the moisture
axis from the central Texas coast across Louisiana to central
Tennessee by Saturday. This axis will sag east late Saturday. As a
result...precipitable water values will increase up to 1.7 inches
across central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi late Saturday.
Instability will be marginally and wind profiles will remain less
conducive for intense storms. However...wind flow aloft and slow
progress of the moisture field may lead to training of rain areas
Saturday into Sunday across the region. Some uncertainty exist with with
locations of the moisture axis and for now will increase
precipitation amounts up to an inch in the grids over the weekend.
Density of the associated will slowly push the frontal boundary
through the forecast area Sunday. However...moist southwest flow
will maintain a rain threat Sunday night into Monday but low end
chance will remain. Dry condition may return briefly next Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Link
Btw, I used to be a skeptic, but after the non-summer we have had here and the non-winter you have had there, something is causing this, and that something is called, Climate Change.
Good night all. Stay safe, stay well.
climate change is a bit more logical then gw...just a bit tho, lol xD
PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea — Rescuers plucked more than 230 survivors from the sea off Papua New Guinea's east coast after a ferry sank Thursday with as many as 350 people on board, officials said.
An airplane from Australia, three helicopters and eight ships scoured the area after the MV Rabaul Queen went down while traveling from Kimbe on the island of New Britain to the coastal city of Lae on the main island, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.
The ferry sank 50 miles (80 kilometers) east of Lae, the South Pacific country's second-largest city, and 10 miles (16 kilometers) from shore, it said in a statement.
Australian Broadcasting Corp. quoted police in Kimbe as saying that most of the passengers were students and trainee teachers.
An official at the scene said the ferry capsized in rough seas and sank four hours later, Papua New Guinea's Post-Courier newspaper reported.
National Weather Service chief Sam Maiha said shipping agencies had been warned to keep ships moored this week because of strong winds, the newspaper said.
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O'Neill said the cause of the accident was unknown, but acknowledged that safety in the shipping industry was lax.
"We need to bring some safety measures back into this industry," O'Neill told reporters.
He said more than 300 people were aboard the ship, although the precise number had not been confirmed.
An Australian search and rescue airplane based in the northern city of Cairns reached the scene by afternoon and two other Australian airplanes were on their way.
Australian Maritime Safety Authority spokeswoman Carly Lusk said the crew of the first plane threw several life rafts to survivors in the water. She said 238 survivors had been recovered by late in the day.
She said 350 people were believed to be on board the ferry, but Papua New Guinea's National Maritime Safety Authority said the figure was likely lower.
"I cannot confirm or deny the 350 missing number. It is hearsay," said Captain Nurur Rahman, the authority's rescue coordinator. "I have not seen the manifest as yet, but it is likely around 300."
Rahman said the search would likely be suspended until dawn Friday due to rough weather.
He said there had been no reports of bodies being found and that he remained hopeful of finding more survivors in the tropical waters.
"I'm always hopeful," he said. "People have survived up to two days in these waters."
Most of the survivors were uninjured, although one had a dislocated shoulder, he said.
Ship operator Star Ships could not immediately be contacted for comment.
Major Disaster Declared February 1, 2012 (DR-4052)
my statement above has nothing to do with the driving mechanisms of the warming, mind you. i just don't think there is any reasonable argument over observed warming, and it's impact on climate destabilization from historically the observed norms. *however, it does seem apparent that CO2 concentrations merit our immediate attention per causation, from what we know of chemistry and geological evidence.
Conclusion: global warming is causing the climate change. you may call it one or the other for whatever political reason, and while many still argue about Why there is warming, it just seems apparent that globally it Is warming.
Im in NOLA, that FEMA release is for the Damage caused by the Alabama nadoes last week,
Why am I not excited that the EPA is gonna help us all understand climate change :/
Still getting showers here at 11n 61w (Trinidad). It's usually real dry by Feb.
Good strong easterlies and great visibility these days.
Much cooler too, in the low 80's max, down to about 72 at night.
"Feels" like the dry-season is about to start. The wind is drying the ground out fast.
Nice weather!
Fantastic!
Anyone seen these papers?
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011J HM1351.1
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81 /pdf
Stuart Staniford discusses the above papers here:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/another-ter rifying-drought-paper.html
and here:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/10/future-of-d rought-series.html
Peak oil analysts are shifting to climate analysis which is meaningful by itself.
http://theoilconundrum.blogspot.com/
i think they have too much time on their hands lol...pretty soon they gon say all food has something bad in it..
Dissemination Time of Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) System Products through March 9, 2012
NCEP is proposing to upgrade the Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecast (HWRF) modeling system in May 2012. This upgrade would
result in HWRF products being distributed to the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) and to the public up to 20 minutes later
than the current distribution time. The NWS is seeking comments
on this proposed upgrade and resultant distribution schedule
change by March 9, 2012.
The proposed upgrades to the HWRF modeling system would be:
- Inclusion of a very high-resolution storm-following third nest
operating at 3 km horizontal resolution within a 9 km
intermediate domain and 27 km outer domain
- A centroid-based nest motion algorithm for accurate storm
tracking
- Improved vortex initialization applicable for 3 km horizontal
resolution and upgraded GSI
- Improved PBL, convection and microphysics parameterizations
- Improved synthetic satellite products for GOES and microwave
imagers
- A very high temporal resolution tracker product
The benefits to the user community would be improved hurricane
track, intensity and structure prediction.
The delayed delivery time would affect all HWRF products
distributed through NOAAPORT, the NWS ftp server and the NCEP
ftp/http server.
More details about the HWRF are available at:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/
At the close of the public comment period, NWS will evaluate the
comments to determine whether to proceed with this upgrade to the
HWRF as planned. If a decision is made to move forward, a
Technical Information Notice will be issued containing the
implementation date and more details about the upgrade and
resultant product delays.
Please send comments on this proposal to:
Vijay Tallapragada
Hurricane Team Leader
NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
301-763-8000 x7232
Vijay.Tallapragada@noaa.gov
it already does hows that for ya if we kill the planet earth we in fact kill ourselves and thats in our nature to do so as well
water the simplest of all resources continually recycled since the dawn of time every specis thats ever lived on earth has drank from the same water
Mahalo in advance!
current SST's are on the main page of the tropical section of wunderground...not sure where last years at tho:D
Do you have the link to that text? Thanks in advance.
I'm insulted by this reference. It's not cute. I'm sure many are similarly insulted.
The makings of an Early Season and possibly a very tough season!
Where's the snow? Not in Lower 48, but elsewhere
By SETH BORENSTEIN | Associated Press – 6 hrs ago
Link
"We've just had a remarkable run of unusual winters in the past six years globally," said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Mich. "I have to say that winter hasn't really hit yet. Certainly not where I live."
Shear has been running thus far above Average according to this
Use this Link easily best way to do it.
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