Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:06 GMT le 03 février 2012 | +25 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Still monitoring the prospects of a subtropical/tropical cyclone in February. That would be amazing.
We have to be nice to hydrus. Currently he is our resident-in-reserve for these things in the off-season. It would surprise the heck out of me if something does develop. Although I do recall back in 1348 a similar setup in February, Although in the old calendar it was really March.
Excerpts:
HIGHLIGHTS:
* RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TOMORROW
* LOTS OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
* WARM, CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN
BOTH THE 03.12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 03.00Z ECWMF SHOW DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MAKING A RUN
TOWARDS SOUTH FL LATE SUN-MON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH FL...THEY KEEP IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IT GETS CLOSE THOUGH
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
I can make it move if you want.
Killjoy!
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 500 PM CST
* AT 428 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF WASHINGTON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SIGHTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF THE WARNED
COUNTIES..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Don't want it to ruin a backyard Superbowl party Sunday evening. It can rain all it wants next week.
As usual, ASCAT is a complete miss....
Must be hurricane season...right?
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
19.1N/88.3W
was just lookin at that, lol
AXNT20 KNHC 032312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN
GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG
4N30W 2N38W 2N52W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY FROM A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WEST VIRGINIA PROVIDING E-SE FLOW OF
15-20 KTS OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WRN GULF ALONG 93W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA E
OF 91W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 26N88W 23N89W. DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE AREA W OF
91W MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 1800 UTC
TOMORROW.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC
AND ERN CONUS. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT TRADEWIND
FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
BASIN...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WRN
GULF AND DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND
FLOW. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 32N59W 28N67W 27N75W
DISSIPATING TO 27N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD
OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NW ATLC S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND
ACROSS THE FAR ERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG 27N55W TO 21N58W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN ITS VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL N OF
THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 37W PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 18N TO THE AFRICAN COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON
Anytime. So, I deduced from your handle you survived Wilma? I may be old, but I don't miss much.
Make what move?
WGUS54 KHGX 032323
FFWHGX
TXC051-040130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0011.120203T2323Z-120204T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CST
* AT 522 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
LOCATED IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF THREE INCHES IN
THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
CEDAR CREEK...DEAN BRANCH...COPPER CREEK...REED CREEK...
DAVIDSON CREEK...BERRY CREEK...PECAN HOLLOW CREEK AND CARRINGTON
CREEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...BAYOUS..AND FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER
SECONDARY ROADS MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE GROUND!
More reason to say Drought Monitor is bogus!
I thought you had copy-righted the right to give the whole blog a hard time about whatever you choose years ago. ;~)}
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC023-089-127-040800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0026.120204T0100Z-120204T0800Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
TXC063-085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-257 -277-343-367-
379-387-397-439-449-459-467-497-499-040800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0026.120204T0100Z-120204T0800Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP COLLIN COOKE
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MORRIS PARKER
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
TARRANT TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...FWD...
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F
9:00 AM FST February 4 2012
=====================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (998 hPa) located at 19.7S 172.7E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and surface observations.
Organization remains poor for the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours. Disturbance lies beneath an upper level ridge axis. The system lies in an area of moderate vertical wind shear and will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Global models are moving the system east-southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
More reason to say you misunderstand the metric. Flash flood events such as this saturate the surface with little penetration. Usually do more harm than good as cause excessive erosion due to the lack of ground cover from preceding drought conditions.
LOL
1. Snow relatively non-existent
2. Blob watching in February
3. US walking dangerously close to war with Iran
4. Jobs #'s are actually up
What the heck is happening here?
That rhymed!
I guess I'm the Dr. Seuss of weather.
IS OUR CLIMATE CHANGING? A STUDY OF LONG-TIME TEMPERATURE TRENDS
LOL
This climate change debate has been around longer than we may think.....
Looking back at 1933, I am fully convinced there were some additional storms in the eastern Atlantic that weren't observed. There was at least one storm in every other part of the basin that year, and while nothing was tracked from east of about 55W, quite a few storms came out of the MDR.... and I wouldn't be surprised if we had a few that got big and pretty near Africa and just went up the centre of the ocean [I mean before they got to 45W].
There's some interesting reading in the 1933 journals, including a definitive article on storm surge in the Gulf by Isaiah Kline of Galveston fame...
Violent tornadoes in January/February and now tropical systems predicted to develop in February!? Oh man, it's going to be one of those years.
Posted on February 3, 2012
January 3, 2012 – AUSTRALIA – Severe flooding is threatening parts of New South Wales and Queensland in eastern Australia, with towns cut off and thousands of residents evacuated. More than 10,000 people in communities affected by the floods have been left stranded, authorities said on Friday. A military helicopter was sent to the northern New South Wales town of Moree with bedding and supplies. “From the air it looks like an inland sea,” said New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell. Moree is reportedly facing its worst flooding in more than 35 years, with more than 2,000 people ordered to evacuate homes and buildings. Water levels at the Mehi River there had peaked and flooding was expected to continue for several days, emergency officials said. “As you fly over the centre of the town there are streets that look like canals that have more relevance to Venice than north-western New South Wales,” said Mr O’Farrell. In the town of Mitchell in Queensland, about 200 people have reportedly been forced to evacuate after floodwater inundated their homes. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said the hospital had also been evacuated and five schools were closed, following fears that the Maranoa river could reach a record 10-metre height. The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia also issued a severe weather warning for parts of Queensland on Friday. –BBC
Hawaii drought worsens: Federal authorities today issued a natural disaster designation for Hawai’i County due to ongoing drought conditions. The designation clears the way for affected ranchers and farmers to apply for federal relief. According to the National Weather Service, Extreme Drought conditions persists in the South Kohala and portions of the Hamakua District of Hawaii Island. Hydrologist Kevin Kodama noted in a recent advisory that pastures and general vegetation over most of the district were in very poor condition causing an ongoing concern for brush fires. The advisory further stated that ranchers in the area destocked cattle and initiated water hauling operations, while some Kona coffee growers, had to irrigate more than normal to sustain their orchards. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued the declaration on Jan. 18, 2012, after reviewing an application submitted by the governor last month. “By designating Hawai’i County a natural disaster area, President Obama and US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack have recognized that the island’s farmers and ranchers have endured enough,” said Governor Neil Abercrombie in a statement. “Even today, Big Island residents continue to experience drought conditions ranging from severe to extreme. The USDA’s assistance will help hard working families recover losses and see it through until conditions improve,” he said. –Maui Now
Kenyan Elders are no longer able to predict the rains
MARSABIT, Kenya – Nomadic communities living off the dry terrain of northern Kenya have relied for generations on the powers of village elders to predict the weather. But the divinations of traditional forecasters were confounded by an unexpectedly severe drought in 2011, threatening herders’ livelihoods. Now pastoralists and meteorological experts are trying to find better ways to cope with regional weather that is increasingly difficult to anticipate – a situation some believe is linked to climate change. Using their traditional forecasting systems, the elders in Marsabit district predicted that rains would fail in the area from October or November 2010 until April 2011, but that after this dry spell the situation would return to normal. This information was relayed to the community through the network of traditional elders in every village in the district. As anticipated, there were only erratic rains towards the end of 2010, and then a dry period.
But the onset of rain predicted for April never occurred, and the situation rapidly turned catastrophic. With livestock weakened, pasture diminished and the water running dry for people and livestock, thousands of herders crossed into southern Ethiopia in search of water and pasture, while others fled remote villages for towns in search of food and pasture. Abdi Boru, from the Turbi area of Marsabit, said he lost 23 head of cattle in the drought, leaving him with just two. “The situation changed to worse from (what the elders) predicted and everybody started losing livestock in high numbers. We could not move them across the border as they were weak, and we watched while they died,” said Boru. When rains finally came in November 2011, they were so heavy that there was flash flooding, which the traditional forecasters also failed to predict. Kunu Halakano, an elder in Dambalfanchana village, said he was shocked by the turn of events. “We have given our community weather information for many years, and that assisted them in understanding what to expect and plan, but now I am seeing something else from what we predicted. We predicted good rains after the dry spell and (yet) the rains failed from April to October,” said Halakano. –Alert Net
Drug-trade affected by drought in Mexico – Associated Press, February 1, 2012
Blue sphere The blue spheres are jelly-like but have no smell and are not sticky
27 January 2012 Last updated at 11:15 ET
Link
Bournemouth resident mystified by 'blue sphere shower'
A man in Dorset has been left mystified after tiny blue spheres fell from the sky into his garden.
Steve Hornsby from Bournemouth said the 3cm diameter balls came raining down late on Thursday afternoon during a hail storm.
He found about a dozen of the balls in his garden. He said: "[They're] difficult to pick up, I had to get a spoon and flick them into a jam jar."
The Met Office said the jelly-like substance was "not meteorological".
Mr Hornsby, a former aircraft engineer, said: "The sky went a really dark yellow colour.
"As I walked outside to go to the garage there was an instant hail storm for a few seconds and I thought, 'what's that in the grass'?"
'No smell'
Advertisement
Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were
Walking around his garden he found many more blue spheres were scattered across the grass.
He said: "The have an exterior shell with a softer inner but have no smell, aren't sticky and do not melt."
Mr Hornsby said he was keeping the balls in his fridge while he tried to find out what they were.
Josie Pegg, an applied science research assistant at Bournemouth University, speculated that the apparently strange phenomena might be "marine invertebrate eggs".
"These have been implicated in previous 'strange goo' incidents," she said. "I'd have thought it's a little early for spawning but I suppose we've had a very mild winter.
"The transmission of eggs on birds' feet is well documented and I guess if a bird was caught out in a storm this could be the cause."
Link
Iran is no threat to the US. The problem is if Russia and China go against us. WW3 would soon follow, not sure if it would go thermo or not.
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